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World power swings back to America

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: World power swings back to America

Unread postby Pops » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 07:08:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bruce_S', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')But still, being fairly balanced I'd like to learn more about the truth on the ND shale oil. How does that change the peak oil picture.


The best peak oil definition I can find involves the use of the term "terminal decline". According to OilFinder, the US has been increasing production of late, back to 2003 levels. This certainly knocks out the "terminal" part of the definition, and increases knock out the "decline" part as well.

Pretty good for a start, as to whether or not production can increase to even earlier levels appears to be unknown at this point.

No.

$100 oil is not $20 oil.

How can that be made more clear?
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Re: World power swings back to America

Unread postby peripato » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 07:32:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bruce_S', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')But still, being fairly balanced I'd like to learn more about the truth on the ND shale oil. How does that change the peak oil picture.


The best peak oil definition I can find involves the use of the term "terminal decline". According to OilFinder, the US has been increasing production of late, back to 2003 levels. This certainly knocks out the "terminal" part of the definition, and increases knock out the "decline" part as well.

Pretty good for a start, as to whether or not production can increase to even earlier levels appears to be unknown at this point.

No.

$100 oil is not $20 oil.

How can that be made more clear?

WTF are people smoking? Economy busting oil prices are sure to heal what ails us and lead to a rosy future of ever more oil? Is that what they're saying? Just like in Alaska, just like with the GOM?

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Re: World power swings back to America

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 08:51:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lthough I couldn't find a graph including U.S. oil production into 2011. Does anyone else have one?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ilFinder, the US has been increasing production of late, back to 2003 levels


As of last week, crude oil input to refineries was about 15 million barrels, and domestic production was just under 6... so that's 15/21 or about 71% coming from elsewhere.

There is also some non-refining-related crude oil that comes into the country.

OF2 is right in that domestic production has increased to pre-Katrina levels. We follow this stuff every week, as you know, last week it was about 5.9 mbpd, and it was indeed the highest since 2003.

Keep in mind, however, that since 2008 our overall use of refined petroleum products has decreased a lot. There were a couple of weeks last summer when we were using distillates at levels not seen since the late 90's. Jet fuel is down maybe 15 to 20 percent since 2008, and even unleaded you have to go back to 2003 to find equivalently low demand for a similar period in October that it was last week.

So what happened was, in 2008 the economy collapsed and it never really did come back, a lot of people quit driving, probably because they were laid off (as reflected in The Dude's "highway miles traveled" statistics that he was quoting occasionally) and everything we cut back was taken out of imports.

I can assure you that if we were using the 2-3 mbpd of finished products that we were using in 2008 most of the incremental amount would have to be imported, and we'd be back around 76% dependence on imports, in a world where Asia now uses more fuel than North America.
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Re: World power swings back to America

Unread postby basil_hayden » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 09:58:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')his is what you get for ignoring my posts. If you paid even a modicum of attention to what I've been posting here, none of this would be news to you. :roll:


Well I'll say this much, I'd like to see more discussion about this ND shale oil. The above article makes it sound like we're the next Saudi Arabia.

But I smell BS. That writer was always overboard on his doom articles in the past, so I expect the same exaggeration on something "cornie" he writes -- he has a way with words but short on actual facts, and loose on the facts he does cite. He sensationalizes. And honestly I think this is really a doom article just meant for British readership -- a reverse doom tactic, depressing Britons by fabricating a supposedly greener pasture over here in the US. :roll:

But still, being fairly balanced I'd like to learn more about the truth on the ND shale oil. How does that change the peak oil picture.



ND? There's about 1000 days of oil that will take 28 years to extract. What more do you need to know?
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Re: World power swings back to America

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 13:51:56

Haha! :lol: "Unknown" is me. VangelIV keeps repeating his same misinformation over and over again. He's like a stuck record. He doesn't even respond to about 2/3 of the comments I make, and changes the subject when he can't confront a fact I present to him.

He's like the idiots on TOD (whom he obviously reads) who call shale gas a miserable failure, when in fact it's been a stunning success. It's been such a success that prices have cratered as production has gone through the roof. Yet some people insist on calling that a failure. That's the bizarre logic he uses. :lol:

Notice also what dave at the bottom of that article said.
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http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: World power swings back to America

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 14:15:03

In fact, now that I read his stuff a bit more I find a passage where he actually called shale gas a failure. About 2/3 down the page:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') kept reading similar hype about shale gas and look where that has ended up for the operators. Now that they have failed in shale gas we are supposed to buy the shale oil story and forget all of the gimmicks of the past few years? That may play well to the ignorant but not to those of us who care about reality and actual returns.

Yeah, here's the failure he's talking about. It's been such a failure, production has gone through the roof:

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And thanks to that surging output, prices are in the dumps, with no relief in sight.

Only an idiot calls something like that a "failure." :roll:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: World power swings back to America

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 14:22:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'G')od, I don't know how many times Vangel bitch-slapped you down. Over and over and over until you finally turned tail and ran. Caught you here, unknown :P

In your dreams.

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: World power swings back to America

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 14:32:01

Isn't it hilarious how he has to use a chart going only through 2005 to make his case? :lol:

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http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: World power swings back to America

Unread postby FarQ3 » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 14:48:28

Haven't seen you on here for a while OF2 ... it's good to have you back. Always had a good laugh reading your humour :)
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Re: World power swings back to America

Unread postby LoneSnark2 » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 15:32:56

On the mjperry blog post, a commenter said "But there is no way to sustain that production with 70 bpd per well, drilling costs of several million", which is untrue. 70 bpd at $100 a barrel is over $2.5 million a year. If it cost you $2.5 million to drill, the dern thing paid for itself in one year. Everything after that is pure profit.
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Re: World power swings back to America

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 16:04:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')hey are paid $75 at the well head.

OK, even if true, we make a few simple changes to LoneShark's post:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the mjperry blog post, a commenter said "But there is no way to sustain that production with 70 bpd per well, drilling costs of several million", which is untrue. 70 bpd at $75 a barrel is over $1.9 million a year. If it cost you $2.5 million to drill, the dern thing paid for itself in less than two years. Everything after that is pure profit.

But actually, since these wells tend to have large IP rates after which they decline, the payoff is really much sooner.

A Bakken well with an IP rate of about 800 bpd and an average of 300 bpd over the first 6 months will pay for itself in less than a year.

300 bpd * 6 months * 30 days/month * $75/barrel = $4 million revenue in 6 months.

And actually, as I write this the going rate for Williston Basin sweet is $85/barrel, so we get:

300 bpd * 6 months * 30 days/month * $85/barrel = $4.6 million revenue in 6 months. Which is roughly the cost of drilling one of these wells. Everything after that is pure profit.
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Re: World power swings back to America

Unread postby Pops » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 16:30:25

But the wells can only produce so much, right?

I mean how far from the bore can they reach, it isn't a "pool" of oil after all, that's the whole point.

So I'd think they need to drill and keep on drilling and to do that they need high prices.
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Re: World power swings back to America

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 16:47:09

How far the fractures reach depend on the qualities of the individual rock formation, I would think. I suppose that's a question for rockdoc123.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: World power swings back to America

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 17:53:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'J')eezus OF. He caught you lying on 2 or 3 occasions and your numbers make no sense. I'll highlight just one of your lies for the folks then I have to go back to work building my greenhouse; (note to the stadium; the following exchange can be found at ...

Here ya go pisser, a discussion on a much broader set of Bakken wells can be found here. And note the newer wells are getting better. Too bad. Awww. You're going to have to get used to US oil production going up. :lol:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pisser', 'F')olks do your self a favor and do a little math on the above and follow the links. OF1 lies. Question to OF1; Who do work for? I thought it was NG fracting queens over at Chesapeake? I guess since their downgrade you found it necessary to go whoring after new work. Nice to see you employed though.

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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