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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Poll ended at Tue 19 Jan 2010, 21:37:29

Q1 2010
6
No votes
Q2 2010
18
No votes
Q3 2010
17
No votes
Q4 2010
3
No votes
Q1 2011
5
No votes
Q2 2011
3
No votes
Q3 2011
3
No votes
Q4 2011
1
No votes
Q1 2012
0
0%
Q2 2012
1
No votes
Q3 2012
0
0%
Q4 2012
3
No votes
Never - there won´t be a second wave, the world will slowly recover
4
No votes
 
Total votes : 64

Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby GoIllini » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 12:55:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'I') wasn't referring to Communism.

What were you referring to then? A monarchy? There's two or three communist states left in the world and nearly every other form of government besides some form of constitutional monarchy has given way to libertarian capitalist democracy in the West.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')necdotal and unverifiable evidence? And your last two sentences are based on naivete, as if the same government that bailed out bankers and engaged in wars while passing on the debt to citizens will protect the latter.

LOL, since someone who actually works with these "powerful people" at least has "anecdotal evidence" that contradicts your wild suppositions, your claims of rich people taking over our economic system have been refuted unless you can show me a poll of CEOs and bankers who say we should round up poor people and send them to work camps.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')idiculous. 70 pct of laborers work in the service industry, 70 pct of economic activity is based on consumer spending, and a significant amount of oil consumption involves transport of food and other supplies to most (not just the bottom 20 pct), if not to power up something like 250 million passenger vehicles, or almost one per citizen.

Yes, but you really have to look at domestic goods production vs. imports. You're citing a number that tells me where my spending money goes. Of the money I spend that stays in the US, 70% goes to retailers, movie theaters, banks, service providers, etc. 30% goes to US factories. My question is, if 20% of the population stops buying stuff, do we become self-sufficient on that 30% domestic industrial production?
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby Quinny » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 16:29:59

Gollini - Have you ever heard of the term 'First against the wall'?
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby GoIllini » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 16:49:33

LOL, first against the wall will be the idiots who put that sign up at the CBOT. I would probably be the next idiot, but I will be safely on my private island. I told someone advertising a T-shirt that said "We are the 1%" to try wearing it to the next Teamster Union rally.

Seriously- I'm just trying to provide the capitalist non-conspiracy theory perspective here. And the bottom line is that you guys who've changed your worldview about oil and life on this planet have been preparing for years. That means you've cut your spending, saved 20%+ or more of your income while investing in resource stocks (which have done well over the past few years), and now you guys have set yourselves up to be in the top 10%- or at least self-sufficient- too. Given the food production numbers for the US, it is highly unlikely you'll be starving or unable to be self-sufficient at least through age 70 if you are not on welfare or food stamps, addicted to drugs, and know how to show up on time to a job that starts at 9 AM. Having a year or two worth of savings is just that extra margin of safety.

We saw this coming and we prepared financially. It is time to stop worrying about the rest of the world and time to start figuring out how you are going to enjoy the post-peak world. Greek islands will soon be on the market for $500 (at least in terms of pre-1933 gold). Maybe you'll head up to the Canadian Rockies and do some paragliding.

You spent five long years, preparing, obsessing, and worrying. Now it will soon be time to relax and enjoy life in a way that only the independently wealthy could until now. The rest of the world cannot be saved, but you and your family will probably be OK.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby Loki » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 22:43:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', ' ')investing in resource stocks (which have done well over the past few years)


I'm not sure whether it's funny or sad that you think some electrons on a Manhattan server will save you as the “mooch” class starves to death in the streets.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby peripato » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 23:36:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', ' ')investing in resource stocks (which have done well over the past few years)


I'm not sure whether it's funny or sad that you think some electrons on a Manhattan server will save you as the “mooch” class starves to death in the streets.

But don't you understand? It's always mornin' in America!
"Don’t panic, Wall St. is safe!"
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby rangerone314 » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 01:10:43

I'm amused at the stock market going up lately.

Consider this: http://ceridianindex.com/

The PCI has declined 3 months in a row from June to September.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby peripato » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 05:30:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'I')'m amused at the stock market going up lately.

Consider this: http://ceridianindex.com/

The PCI has declined 3 months in a row from June to September.

The stock market is rising because it is official policy to game the system to avoid a return of another bear market cycle. That's how confident the bozos in government, the FED and treasury are in the economic "recovery" that they must now resort to permanently supporting the indexes to provide the facade of improvement. The stock market came within a whisker of officially turning bear a couple of weeks ago (a bear market being a drop of 20% in the DOW), when, hey presto, the DOW rallied 400 points - in the last 45 minutes of trading! A classic play from the Plunge Protection Team. Since then the DOW has been on a tear and is now back to even for the year, the dollar is down, oil, gold and other commodities are rising again. Keep printing Ben, it's working a charm!
"Don’t panic, Wall St. is safe!"
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby Anvil » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 05:45:02

The Fed will keep on printing until USA turns into a Weimar Republic.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby GoIllini » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 07:12:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', ' ')investing in resource stocks (which have done well over the past few years)


I'm not sure whether it's funny or sad that you think some electrons on a Manhattan server will save you as the “mooch” class starves to death in the streets.

LOL, the stocks are held in a non-marginable cash account which requires them to keep the stock certs registered in my name and when we need more than electrons, we force a wind-down of the company. Also hold physical gold and land as well. Not saying where it is, but it's somewhere safe. By the way, the NYSE's servers are in Piscataway and have seamless failover mirroring through several other sites around the world. Very few datacenters are actually in Manhattan.

I just don't get all of this negative resistance. You guys are too OCD about this stuff. Buy some oil, farmland, and timber stocks, watch the dividends roll in, and enjoy life. If you're nervous, you can hold some land, gold, and even (legal) weapons directly too. Let's assume the doomer scenario- a global nuclear war in the Northern hemisphere between Russia, China, and the US. We can all go down to Argentina, New Zealand, or (now nuke-free) South Africa and enjoy some paragliding and diving. Once you learn to accept that this is going to happen and there's nothing you can do but prepare for yourself, and you've fully prepared, life is almost as upbeat as it was before this was even on your radar screen.

The post-peak world is one of 30-40 hour workweeks and lots of fun outside work. Keep working, keep saving, keep buying real assets, maybe take a few courses in urban warfare or wilderness survival just for kicks, and you'll be just fine.
Last edited by GoIllini on Mon 17 Oct 2011, 07:56:44, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby GoIllini » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 07:48:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', ' ')investing in resource stocks (which have done well over the past few years)


I'm not sure whether it's funny or sad that you think some electrons on a Manhattan server will save you as the “mooch” class starves to death in the streets.

But don't you understand? It's always mornin' in America!

Bingo. The first leg of this happened in the early '80s. Not sure how that fomented instability here. Ironically the social instability and rioting came during the Great Society programs of the late 1960s.

I do agree with the point of your signature. Wall Street should not have gotten a bailout if we're going to live in a truly libertarian state. (For the record, no company that I've worked for has received direct lending from central banks or any sort of bailout for that matter)
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 10:37:06

Tell me about this libertarian state?
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby GoIllini » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 10:43:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'T')ell me about this libertarian state?

It's a state where taxes cap out at 35%, wars are only started by cassus belli outlined under the Treaty of Westphalia, and our only entitlement system is a pre-paid forced savings program akin to Social Security that requires individuals and their employers to deposit 14% of their income into NCUA-insured CDs at local credit unions to ensure a bare minimum standard of living when they can no longer work.

You are responsible for you and your family, though we'll offer $5K and a keg of Bud Light to those who get vasectomies.
Last edited by GoIllini on Mon 17 Oct 2011, 11:24:55, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 10:49:43

lol
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby GoIllini » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 11:26:16

Yes, it's not like typical Republicans can get us there with a war every three years in the middle-east, but if we get Ron Paul or another true libertarian, we can get there.

I am skeptical about how low tax rates can go, but I think the current tax schedule is sustainable if we eliminate most entitlement programs.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 11:29:41

Ron Paul doesn't believe in Peak Oil. 8O
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby GoIllini » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 11:32:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'R')on Paul doesn't believe in Peak Oil. 8O

Ehh, he'll come around if oil prices creep higher and reserves come down, and probably loosen things back to 1980s standards at the NRC for new plant construction.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 11:34:08

I thought he's a drill baby, drill kind of guy.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby GoIllini » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 11:37:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'I') thought he's a drill baby, drill kind of guy.

Sure. And with Bakken and Athabasca, there's still a lot to drill.

We need to prepare for Peak Oil. And losing the entitlement mentality is much more important for the country than building wind turbines. There are no true Malthusians running for president, but a Libertarian will at least help us readjust our expectations about the future and prepare us socially. You can't spend money you don't have and you only have the right to live in a McMansion, drive a hummer, even eat if you have the money to pay for it.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 11:50:44

It's NOT America's oil. It's traded on the World market.

You do know the USA burns about 20 million barrels a day just to keep the machine going?
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby GoIllini » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 11:53:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'I')t's NOT America's oil. It's traded on the World market.

You do know the USA burns about 20 million barrels a day just to keep the machine going?

It's come down to 18 million/day over the past five years. Americans have been conserving. Meanwhile production has increased. So we are in better shape than five years ago.

It's not exactly America's oil, but we collect royalties, taxes, and labor costs. If you own the oil stocks too, it's effectively your oil.
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