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Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Poll ended at Tue 19 Jan 2010, 21:37:29

Q1 2010
6
No votes
Q2 2010
18
No votes
Q3 2010
17
No votes
Q4 2010
3
No votes
Q1 2011
5
No votes
Q2 2011
3
No votes
Q3 2011
3
No votes
Q4 2011
1
No votes
Q1 2012
0
0%
Q2 2012
1
No votes
Q3 2012
0
0%
Q4 2012
3
No votes
Never - there won´t be a second wave, the world will slowly recover
4
No votes
 
Total votes : 64

Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 15 Oct 2011, 04:18:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '
')
I believe in libertarian democracy. I don't believe there is a god-given right to an SUV, a McMansion, even food, though from a pragmatic standpoint it is very difficult to have a bunch of starving people between where food is being produced and where people with money want to consume it. I think my views are shared by most of the folks running the financial world. Some people will have to give up their homes and their cars, and while I wish there was something I could do about it, Malthus and Ehrlich tell me I can't.

We're social creatures and we have a duty as individuals to do what we can to correct the problems right in front of us as we are reasonably able. If there's a thousand starving people in front of you, you obviously can't feed them all, but maybe you should give some of what you can save to help them.

On the political hand, everyone in this country has been given certain inalienable God-given rights. But on the financial hand, if you're in the top 10%, you really only care about what happens- financially- to the top 10%. If the bottom 90% have to give up their 5000 square foot homes financed by subprime mortgages along with their 10 MPG hummers, that's not your problem. You paid cash for a rusty 35 mpg Honda years ago and you own your 2000 square foot home outright. Now you can go out and pay cash for a 50 mpg Ducati 848 and help a member of the bottom 90% keep the lights on.

There will be no mass arrests, concentration camps, government clampdowns etc as predicted five years ago on this site. People will declare bankruptcy and never be able to get a loan again, but otherwise nothing will happen to them. We are a libertarian state, and the corporations, top 10%, and eventually the pols will say, "Oh. That's too bad. Guess you're screwed" if people lose their homes or have trouble feeding their families, and life will move on.

I'm not sure we'll get to that point. Fertility rates have come down significantly since 2008, and if we pay the bottom 20% to get vasectomies and stop having 20 kids with five different women, they will fall further.


Your fourth paragraph describes what is essentially a Third World country, if not countries like China: no "mass arrests, concentration camps, government clampdowns" as long as people accept their plight and "move on." Otherwise....

It also makes us (forum members) assume that we're important enough such that the financial elite, the government, and even the military will protect us. I wonder, though, what makes us so important.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby Cloud9 » Sat 15 Oct 2011, 11:46:21

If you want to see what government can do in a real crisis, look to New Orleans. If you plan on a post crash life, look to yourself.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby GoIllini » Sat 15 Oct 2011, 14:54:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'Y')our fourth paragraph describes what is essentially a Third World country, if not countries like China: no "mass arrests, concentration camps, government clampdowns" as long as people accept their plight and "move on." Otherwise....

No, it describes an authoritarian state. Want to see a third world country? One with a government looks like Peru; one without a government looks like Somalia. Neither of them are repressive.

A communist regime CAN turn a first-world country into a third-world country as was done with Russia and China. That does not mean it will happen here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t also makes us (forum members) assume that we're important enough such that the financial elite, the government, and even the military will protect us. I wonder, though, what makes us so important.

If you can produce more than you consume in a libertarian state, then you're important enough to be just fine. Look, I don't want to understate the problem here. Ehrlich is right and people WILL starve. Unless we have a communist revolution, though, the top 80% who do not depend on welfare will probably be ok.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 15 Oct 2011, 16:38:55

Communist countries were defined as "second world countries". http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/second_world.htm
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby Loki » Sat 15 Oct 2011, 16:53:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'U')nless we have a communist revolution, though, the top 80% who do not depend on welfare will probably be ok.

The "let them starve" policies of sociopathic libertarianism will ensure violent revolution if enacted.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby GoIllini » Sat 15 Oct 2011, 17:29:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'U')nless we have a communist revolution, though, the top 80% who do not depend on welfare will probably be ok.

The "let them starve" policies of sociopathic libertarianism will ensure violent revolution if enacted.

No, because the top 80% know that everyone loses if we don't take that view. It's the only fair solution. And besides, it is not like a bunch of unemployed potheads have the energy to mount a serious armed revolution. It's not sociopathic if you realize that it's inavertable.

The problem is when we have to start talking about the bottom 50% or 70%. But Peak Oil is a very gradual phenomenon that will take generations to fully play out. In my generation, the worst case is that 20% starve.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby Crusty » Sat 15 Oct 2011, 18:08:25

"Gradual?" Gee I hope your right but it's not looking like that at the moment. Think I might extend my Vege Patch now.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby Loki » Sat 15 Oct 2011, 18:38:20

I'd hardly call 20% of the American population dying from famine in our lifetime “inavertable” (I think the word you're groping for is "inevitable"). It would take truly sociopathic politics to allow that to happen, peak oil or no. It's fantasy.

Besides, the "let them eat cake" policy didn't work out so well for its last proponents. :wink:
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby Cloud9 » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 07:54:51

The collapse is here. We are living it right now. Open your eyes. Look at Detroit. Look at the economy. Look at local governments. We just refuse to accept it.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby GoIllini » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 09:54:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'T')he collapse is here. We are living it right now. Open your eyes. Look at Detroit. Look at the economy. Look at local governments. We just refuse to accept it.

I don't see it. My oil stock dividends bought me a hang glider last summer. And engineers are making more than ever- like many, I received a double-digit raise this spring.

We are seeing a tale of two economies. One for those who can produce and one for those who can't. Detroit would be an example of people in the bottom 20%; a city of welfare queens, crack addicts, and ladies selling rabbit meat. New York and Seattle would be examples of cities where people still want to work and produce stuff.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby Lore » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 10:32:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'T')he collapse is here. We are living it right now. Open your eyes. Look at Detroit. Look at the economy. Look at local governments. We just refuse to accept it.

I don't see it. My oil stock dividends bought me a hang glider last summer. And engineers are making more than ever- like many, I received a double-digit raise this spring.

We are seeing a tale of two economies. One for those who can produce and one for those who can't. Detroit would be an example of people in the bottom 20%; a city of welfare queens, crack addicts, and ladies selling rabbit meat. New York and Seattle would be examples of cities where people still want to work and produce stuff.


This is a jaundiced opinion of the actual facts. Using a sliver of those in poverty that are looking to milk the system ignores the recent actual statistics that real wages on average have decreased while everyday many workers that once thought of themselves as middle class sink below the poverty line. Mostly through no falt of their own. Meanwhile, your so called real workers on Wall Street play a ponzi scheme of fast rewards for exorbitant bonuses that in reality produce no tangible value. Which is why we're seeing this house of cards tumble.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby GoIllini » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 11:35:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')This is a jaundiced opinion of the actual facts. Using a sliver of those in poverty that are looking to milk the system ignores the recent actual statistics that real wages on average have decreased while everyday many workers that once thought of themselves as middle class sink below the poverty line. Mostly through no falt of their own. Meanwhile, your so called real workers on Wall Street play a ponzi scheme of fast rewards for exorbitant bonuses that in reality produce no tangible value. Which is why we're seeing this house of cards tumble.

Well, yes. Real wages have decreased slightly because of the 30 year shift we've been on from a socialist society to a libertarian one. But the GDP is still growing and corporate profits are up. We can shift back to Carternomics and raise wages if we'd like, but it will cost us in terms of GDP growth. Since most Americans are just as well off or better off than they were 30 years ago while the economy continues to grow, why not let the pie bake a little more before we split it up?
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby rangerone314 » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 11:41:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'U')nless we have a communist revolution, though, the top 80% who do not depend on welfare will probably be ok.

The "let them starve" policies of sociopathic libertarianism will ensure violent revolution if enacted.

No, because the top 80% know that everyone loses if we don't take that view. It's the only fair solution. And besides, it is not like a bunch of unemployed potheads have the energy to mount a serious armed revolution. It's not sociopathic if you realize that it's inavertable.

The problem is when we have to start talking about the bottom 50% or 70%. But Peak Oil is a very gradual phenomenon that will take generations to fully play out. In my generation, the worst case is that 20% starve.

Keep in mind that where I am alone, there are 3 families in homeless shelter with Iraqi veterans. How many Timothy McVeighs are there waiting in the wings? And how many of them would lead the "unemployed potheads" in a "serious armed revolution". Things are more serious now than people think, and I'm seriously thinking now my 15-20 yr timeline for collapse may be off.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 11:42:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '
')No, it describes an authoritarian state. Want to see a third world country? One with a government looks like Peru; one without a government looks like Somalia. Neither of them are repressive.


Gee, thanks for proving my point. :-D

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
A communist regime CAN turn a first-world country into a third-world country as was done with Russia and China. That does not mean it will happen here.



Or the other way round.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')If you can produce more than you consume in a libertarian state, then you're important enough to be just fine. Look, I don't want to understate the problem here. Ehrlich is right and people WILL starve. Unless we have a communist revolution, though, the top 80% who do not depend on welfare will probably be ok.


Definitely, as those who are more powerful than you will expect you to do so. Otherwise....

Finally, I think you are doing precisely that: you are understating the problem. For example, your last statement reminds me of

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/dav ... t-benefits

And in general, we're looking at an economy that in many ways has been living on "welfare" for around four decades:

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/aug20 ... -a15.shtml
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 11:45:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'U')nless we have a communist revolution, though, the top 80% who do not depend on welfare will probably be ok.

The "let them starve" policies of sociopathic libertarianism will ensure violent revolution if enacted.

No, because the top 80% know that everyone loses if we don't take that view. It's the only fair solution. And besides, it is not like a bunch of unemployed potheads have the energy to mount a serious armed revolution. It's not sociopathic if you realize that it's inavertable.

The problem is when we have to start talking about the bottom 50% or 70%. But Peak Oil is a very gradual phenomenon that will take generations to fully play out. In my generation, the worst case is that 20% starve.


Wait a minute: top 80 pct? Bottom 50 to 70 pct?

Also, there's JIT and inventories of food and medicine nationwide, most people working in the service industry, around 70 pct of oil used to transport food and medicine, among other things, increasing debt across the board, etc.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby GoIllini » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 11:47:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')Gee, thanks for proving my point. :-D

Not really. Your point was that we were all going to be turned into Soylent green. My point is that some people may starve, but no human rights will be violated.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')r the other way around

Nearly every communist country started off as a growing capitalist one before it had a revolution. Very few shrinking capitalist countries turn communist.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')efinitely, as those who are more powerful than you will expect you to do so. Otherwise....

LOL, our CEO sits three desks down from me. Trust me, I know how those more powerful than me think. At the end of the day, they realize their human rights are the same as everyone else's. Their economic rights, of course, depend on what they own.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd in general, we're looking at an economy that in many ways has been living on "welfare" for around four decades:

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/aug20 ... -a15.shtml

Sure, interesting how this was preceded by seven years of Guns and Butter under LBJ's guns-n-butter policies of paying for poor peoples' healthcare, housing, and living expenses. See a theme here?
Last edited by GoIllini on Sun 16 Oct 2011, 11:50:40, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 11:49:36

Related:

"On the cusp of collapse: Complexity, energy & the globalised economy"

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2 ... ed-economy

"5 Reasons Why American Riots Will Be The Worst In The World"

http://dont-tread-on.me/5-reasons-why-a ... the-world/

Some may disagree with the thesis of the second article, but there are some interesting points given that may be verified, such as the JIT system and no. of days of food, fuel, and various drugs available, etc.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 11:58:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '
')Not really. Your point was that we were all going to be turned into Soylent green. My point is that some people may starve, but no human rights will be violated.


No, I didn't refer to Soylent Green. And your last point understates the problem given JIT, among other factors.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Nearly every communist country started off as a growing capitalist one before it had a revolution. Very few shrinking capitalist countries turn communist.


I wasn't referring to Communism.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')LOL, our CEO sits three desks down from me. Trust me, I know how those more powerful than me think. At the end of the day, they realize their human rights are the same as everyone else's. Their economic rights, of course, depend on what they own.


Anecdotal and unverifiable evidence? And your last two sentences are based on naivete, as if the same government that bailed out bankers and engaged in wars while passing on the debt to citizens will protect the latter.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Sure, but once we lose the bottom 20%, we'll be net exporters again and oil consumption will go down.


Ridiculous. 70 pct of laborers work in the service industry, 70 pct of economic activity is based on consumer spending, and a significant amount of oil consumption involves transport of food and other supplies to most (not just the bottom 20 pct), if not to power up something like 250 million passenger vehicles, or almost one per citizen.
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Re: Second Wave in the worldwide economic crisis

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 16 Oct 2011, 12:02:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '
')Sure, interesting how this was preceded by seven years of Guns and Butter under LBJ's guns-n-butter policies of paying for poor peoples' healthcare, housing, and living expenses. See a theme here?


Also, France and other countries asking for gold in exchange for their dollars, the Vietnam war, and U.S. oil production dropping. And from the early '80s onward, Ray-gun and his clones engaged in voodoo economics.
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