[Pops]

Since PeakOiler sent me the spreadsheet I thought I'd see how we all are faring with the wti/brent spread so large. In deference to Anti-Doomer's sensibilities you need to understand this is just for fun, no one predicted the Brent price and AD leads in the official WTI challenge at this writing.
The first two columns show ranking with respect to brent and wti prices:



No wonder I was interested!


Here is another chart showing wti/brent and unleaded. WTI is relevant to mid-continent gas prices I suppose but probably not on any of the coasts because those refineries are trading on the world markets. Louisiana Light prices are just a few dollars less than brent right now. US unleaded prices look pretty well married to world prices now, the refiners that can take advantage of the cheaper Cushing crude are just pocketing the difference.


Good article on wti vs brent and why gas in the US seems higher priced than it should be.

[TheAntiDoomer]

Those Rankings are completly silly pops, had I been asked to predict Brent I and all others would have provided completly different numbers. I don't see your point.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'T')hose Rankings are completly silly pops, had I been asked to predict Brent I and all others would have provided completly different numbers. I don't see your point.

[TheAntiDoomer]

what on earth are you talking about pops, while not as big as it is now the spread when we made these predictions was around 15, so its not as if there was NO spread at all.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'w')hat on earth are you talking about pops, while not as big as it is now the spread when we made these predictions was around 15, so its not as if there was NO spread at all.

[dolanbaker]

Looks good for me.
Here in Europe these are the prices that matter!

[kublikhan]

Now that's what I'm talking about. Kub is back in the top 10 where he belongs. All is right with the world again.

[PeakOiler]

Nice graphic, Pops. I like the formatting edit (no grid lines) at the top of the spreadsheet. I may change that in the 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge spreadsheet. I bet jdmartin was pleased to see that (s)he's ahead of me if we had been guessing Brent prices. My position didn't change much at all.

Most recent WTI market data indicates basil_hayden is back in first place in the "official" game, btw.

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'N')ice graphic, Pops. I like the formatting edit (no grid lines) at the top of the spreadsheet. I may change that in the 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge spreadsheet. I bet jdmartin was pleased to see that (s)he's ahead of me if we had been guessing Brent prices. My position didn't change much at all.

Most recent WTI market data indicates basil_hayden is back in first place in the "official" game, btw.

[Humungus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'H')ere in Europe these are the prices that matter!

[PeakOiler]

I think next year we should have two games. One based on WTI and the other on Brent. Twice as much fun, right?

And, since po.com IS an international web site, the guesses for the games would further reflect the world view of where the demand for oil is going.

According to a news article recently posted at po.com, Brent may not be a good benchmark soon as well.

[dolanbaker]

My guess for Brent is still looking good!

[Pops]

Low was Jan 4 and high April 11.

Kind of a strange $100-$120 hoppy motion since the high...

Average close for the year is $111.65

Which works out to .0666 of an ounce of gold ($1,677/oz), or 15 bbl/oz

[babystrangeloop]

Not only have WTI and Brent prices gotten separated now OPEC ORB is not in sync with Brent anymore.

Brent has been falling from $115 to $110 at the same time OPEC has been going from $98 to $110.

(click for source)

[Pops]

You are the China guy, didn't I read somewhere that KSA has really jacked the price to China recently?

[babystrangeloop]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Bombs hit pipelines, halt Iraq oil production
Reuters via Vancouver Sun / October 10, 2011

... Dhiya Jaffar, the head of state-run South Oil told Reuters the approximately 700,000 bpd in halted output could be resumed partially from Rumaila on Sunday and it could take three days to restore normal production at the field.

He said stored oil would keep export levels the same.

"Production at Rumaila was around 1.24 million barrels, but after the bomb attacks we had to stop output at Rumaila South on Friday 8 pm. It was producing 700,000 barrels at the time," Jaffar told Reuters. ...

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')any companies that refine and market oil in the heart of the U.S. look set to have a bumper third quarter, as their costs have fallen through the floor compared with the price of the fuel they sell. BP PLC, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil Corp. have reported percentage gains in their U.S. refining and marketing profits that dwarf any other segment of their business.

Global oil prices represented by Brent, have risen by around a third over the last 12 months due to supply disruptions in several countries, notably Libya. Other oil-product prices usually track Brent closely. U.S. gasoline has done so, rising by almost a quarter over the same period. WTI, on the other hand, has gone from trading at a premium of 63 cents a barrel to Brent a year ago, to a record discount of almost $30 earlier this month. This means the relative materials cost of refiners who use WTI and other related crudes has plummeted, even as the price of their main product has risen. The advantage more than trebled BP's profit from refining and marketing in the U.S. to $761 million in the third quarter. ExxonMobil beat them both, to report a near-fivefold increase in its U.S. downstream profit to $810 million.

The gap between Brent and WTI has fallen below $20 a barrel recently, but many analysts say these good times look likely to continue for several years.

[Pops]

Just for the heck of it I added a couple new things on this sheet, a high + low difference column and an average difference column. Just hi and low without close price guess makes Gerben the winner and on average price Colossal is only off by 98¢!

Also an average of everyone's guess (minus highest 2 outliers) would come out in second place and the average hi guess was only off by 63¢! I thought that was pretty cool.

[PeakOiler]

Are you going to start a 2012 PO.com Brent Oil Price Challenge thread soon?

Two games are better than one!

[Pops]

Yep, momentarily.