[TheAntiDoomer]

Google Earnings Blow Past Expectations; Shares Surge

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44876905


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')evenue increased to $7.51 billion from $5.48 billion last year.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', '[')b]Google Earnings Blow Past Expectations; Shares Surge

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44876905


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')evenue increased to $7.51 billion from $5.48 billion last year.

[Daniel_Plainview]

WSJ -- U.S. Incomes Seen Stagnant Through 2021

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')mericans' incomes have dropped since 2000 and they aren't expected to make up the lost ground before 2021, according to economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey. From 2000 to 2010, median income in the U.S. declined 7% after adjusting for inflation, according to Census data. That marks the worst 10-year performance in records going back to 1967.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'A')nd in reference to AD's post on auto sales ...



Ford Adds 12,000 Hourly Jobs in U.S. Plants Under UAW Accord
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ord Motor Co. said it has committed to add 12,000 hourly jobs in its U.S. manufacturing plants by 2015 as part of a four-year tentative agreement with the United Auto Workers.

The figure includes 5,750 more UAW jobs than a previously announced 6,250 hourly positions to be added by the end of 2012, Executive Vice President John Fleming said at a news conference in Dearborn, Michigan. Ford will be “in-sourcing” jobs from Mexico, China and Japan, the company said in a statement. The union said it will release details later today.

[Lore]

Been here before. Auto manufacturing future employment commitments are only as good as future auto sales. As real wages continue to head South, I'm left wondering where they believe significant sales will come from? Even if they do manage to put a few successful quarters together, the projected employment numbers are a big yawn compared to all the US based auto jobs that have been lost, especially at their former wages.

[Lirlherfoli]

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[TheAntiDoomer]

Retail Sales Post Robust Gain of 1.1% in September; Import Prices Stronger at 0.3% Gain (Story Developing)

[copious.abundance]

Retail sales surge 1.1% in September, August revised upward
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Higher purchases of autos, clothing and home furnishings in September fueled the biggest increase in U.S. retail sales in seven months, government data showed Friday.

The springback in consumer spending is the latest evidence to suggest the U.S. economy is not falling back into recession. Consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of economic growth.

Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 1.1% last month, the Commerce Department said.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected an increase of 0.8%.

The increase in retail sales was boosted by demand for autos, which bounced back after a weak August performance. Auto sales spiked 3.6% last month — the biggest increase in a year-and-a half — as carmakers sold nearly 1.1 million vehicles.

Excluding the auto sector, sales rose 0.6%, but that was still higher than market expectations of a 0.4% increase. Auto sales can swing sharply from month to month and mask underlying retail trends.

Sales for August, which were originally reported as unchanged, were revised up to a 0.3% increase.

[...]

[Armageddon]

Here's what Denninger has to say about the retail sales "surge"

Let's find our great increases! Ok, motor vehicle sales were up, right? Uh, no.

Electronics? Nope.

Nobody expects building materials to be up (and they weren't) but food and beverages must have been, since we had an actual increase, right? Nope.

Health? Nope.

Gasoline! I know, gasoline! Uh, no.

Clothing! Certainly kids needed new clothes going back to school! That's where the increase was. Oops.... that was down too.

Sporting goods? Collapsed - down some 18% m/o/m.

General merchandise! That's the ticket! Well, no - it was down about 7%.

I know I know I got it! The Internet saved us!

Actually, the Internet (non-store retailers) were down slightly too.

Oh, so we have one place left that must have been up - bars. After all, with the economy sucking this badly we all went out and get drunk (and put it on our credit cards), right?

Actually, we didn't - September saw a ~2.5% decline there too.

The truth? The entire gain was "seasonal adjustment." All of it. In other words, in actual dollars there was not only no increase there was a net decrease in sales of approximately five percent - not annualized either, month-over-month!

Put that in your economic pipe and smoke it.

[copious.abundance]

Karl Denninger has become notorious for citing the non-seasonally adjusted numbers when it suits him, and ignoring them while citing the seaonally adjusted numbers when it suits him. He does this all the time with unemployment claims and the jobs report, too.

The guy is pathologically dishonest.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Consumer Expectations Collapse to Lowest Level Since May, 1980

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ct 14 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly slumped in early October as worries about declining incomes drove consumer expectations back down to the lowest level in more than 30 years, a survey released on Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the index on consumer sentiment sagged to 57.5 from 59.4 at the end of September. It fell short of the median forecast of 60.2 among economists polled by Reuters.

Consumers' outlook also deteriorated with the gauge of consumer expectations falling to its lowest level since May 1980, at 47.0 from 49.4. The index had fallen to this level in early September before being revised up at the end of the month. The component has shed more than 20 points since the beginning of the year. The survey's barometer of current economic conditions dipped to 73.8 from 74.9.

"Overall, the data indicate that a recessionary downturn is likely to occur," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement. "Even if the economy manages to avoid the formal recession designation by (the National Bureau of Economic Research), real consumer expenditures will not be strong enough to enable the more robust job growth that is needed to offset the negative grip of economic stagnation on consumer behavior." ...

[GoIllini]

...And the economy is still holding up despite the lack of consumer confidence. Bearish consumer confidence- and higher consumer savings rates- makes for a long-term bullish case for the economy. Interesting that we are raising comparisons to 1980, since that marked the kickoff to the greatest bull market in US history. (Obviously a repeat is highly unlikely.)

I think optimism in this kinda market is pretty darned foolish, but blind pessimism is just as foolish, too. Oil stocks in Europe are paying inflation-adjusted 6% dividends; if you thought the oil patch was a deal in 2004, take a look now.

[TheAntiDoomer]

What Recession? Consumers Are Spending, Raising Outlook

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44906873

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')eptember's retail sales came in at a surprising 1.1 percent gain — better than the 0.7 percent expected — and the best showing in 11 months. There were also revisions to July and August sales, with August now showing a 0.3 percent gain from a previous unchanged.

[GoIllini]

I still want to see what the consumer savings rate is. I think that's the strongest long-term leading indicator of how a country is doing. The higher the savings rate, the better the future is going to be.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'I') still want to see what the consumer savings rate is. I think that's the strongest long-term leading indicator of how a country is doing. The higher the savings rate, the better the future is going to be.

[Daniel_Plainview]

U.S. economy at weakest since Sept. 2010: ECRI

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')AN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- U.S. economic growth hit a 57-week low, posting its weakest reading since Sept. 2010, the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) showed Friday. Economic growth as of the week ending Oct. 7 was -9.6%, the biggest decline since Sept. 3, 2010, when it was -9.8%, ECRI said.

The U.S. economy's strength has been declining since May and went negative in August, according to the WLI. ECRI, which cautions that moves in the WLI must be prolonged and persistent before the readings can be called a trend, said in late September the U.S. economy is headed for a new recession that government intervention cannot prevent.

[copious.abundance]

Hmmm, let's see ... September of last year was in Q3. Q3 GDP growth last year came in at +2.5%. Why do I have a feeling we'll match or exceed that this year?

[vision-master]

If that's the case, I guess it ain't being shared, eh oily. Tons of money, it's just taht it's all funneled towards the top.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Bonds Show 60% Odds of Recession With Bernanke Behind Curve

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The bond market indicator that has predicted every U.S. recession since 1970 shows that the economy has about a 60 percent chance of contracting within 12 months. ... "The adjusted curve is giving a powerful signal for an upcoming U.S. recession," said Ruslan Bikbov, a fixed-income strategist in New York at Bank of America, one of the 22 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with the Fed. "If that happens, the Fed's target rate could remain near zero beyond 2014," more than a year longer than the central bank has indicated, he said in an interview on Oct. 3.

Bank of America's research is sending the same message as the Economic Cycle Research Institute and Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, which say the U.S. may be headed into a decline. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week in testimony to Congress that the central bank can take further steps to sustain a recovery that's "close to faltering" after almost three-years of near-zero interest rates and $2.35 trillion of bond purchases.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its forecasts for the U.S. last month, saying the $15 trillion economy likely grew 1.1 percent in the third quarter and will expand just 0.4 percent in the fourth. ... A "contagion" of economic indicators have come together to signal the economy is tipping into a contraction, according to Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of ECRI, a research firm that predicts changes in the economic cycle.

"You have wildfire among the leading indicators across the board," Achuthan said in a radio interview on Sept. 30 on "Bloomberg Surveillance" with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. "It's a vicious cycle that is going to get quite a bit worse." ... The world economy risks lapsing into a recession with the pace of growth falling below the "new normal" level Pacific Investment Management Co. has predicted since 2009, Gross wrote in a monthly commentary posted on the Newport Beach, California, firm's website Oct 3. Pimco's "new normal" scenario says that following the market's collapse in 2008 the U.S. economy would grow at a below-average pace for several years.

"Markets these days give mild signs of a collapse," Gross said in an Oct. 4 Bloomberg Television interview with Lisa Murphy. The odds of recession in developed economies is about 50 percent, with the U.S. on the "brink," he said. ... "Half the people you speak to tell you they already think we are in a recession," said Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital LP, which manages $17 billion, during a panel discussion the firm held for clients on Sept. 29 in New York. "There remains no real fundamental reason in the U.S. for interest rates to go higher."

[copious.abundance]

Credit Managers for Manufacturers See Less U.S. Recession Risk
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. manufacturing industry rebounded in September from its lowest level since December 2009, helping to defy concerns about a double-dip recession.

The Credit Managers’ Manufacturing Index rose last month to 53.3 from 52.1 in August, as its gauge of sales jumped to the highest since April, according to the National Association of Credit Management’s monthly survey of 600 executives.

The increases represent a “vast improvement,” said Chris Kuehl, economic adviser for the Columbia, Maryland-based association. “The doldrums that sank the manufacturing community in the summer appear to be lifting.”

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund also is stabilizing after a “significant breakdown,” said Michael A. Gayed, chief investment strategist at Pension Partners LLC. The exchange- traded fund -- which includes United Technologies Corp. and 3M Co. -- fell 22 percent between July 1 and Aug. 18, compared with a 14 percent fall for the SPDR Standard & Poor’s 500 ETF, Bloomberg data show.

Since then, the industrial fund has risen 6 percent, compared with 5 percent for the S&P fund.

Following this summer’s underperformance of industrials relative to the broader market, the sector may be poised to outperform again, said Gayed, whose New York firm oversees $140 million in assets. That’s because investors have discounted an economic slowdown that’s “too extreme” as prospects for a recession grow less likely, he said.

Credit managers offer a leading indicator of the manufacturing industry because “they live in the future,” forecasting whether their customers can pay invoices as many as four months from the survey date, Kuehl said.

[...]