by pfreyre » Mon 26 Sep 2011, 16:52:58
I would like to start a thread about cities in the future. With so many people talking about permaculture in a post-peak world, the question that I haven't seen answered yet is that of larger-sized cities.
Cities have been around for thousands of years. The oldest city that I am aware of is the city of Ur in present-day Iraq, presumed to be first settled around 4000 BC. Other cities such as Istanbul, Rome, Athens, Delhi, Beijing, etc have been around for 2000+ years. The question I want to pose is: how large can cities be in the future without using any or very little fossil fuels? And, what will happen to places like New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, etc...
Presumably one of the biggest issues in the future would be access to resources. Given that cities like New York are so close to Boston, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington DC, there would obviously be a lot of competition for food. However, places like Kansas City, Oklahoma City, Denver, etc have less competition for resources and might fare much better. Also, I do want to keep this conversation to larger cities, so places like Cody, Wyoming are off the radar for this question.
In 1800, the 10 larges cities in the world were:
1 Beijing, China 1,100,000
2 London, United Kingdom 861,000
3 Guangzhou, China 800,000
4 Edo (Tokyo), Japan 685,000
5 Constantinople (Istanbul), Turkey 570,000
6 Paris, France 547,000
7 Naples, Italy 430,000
8 Hangzhou, China 387,000
9 Osaka, Japan 383,000
10 Kyoto, Japan 377,000
This shows that we can live largely-populated cities without cars, buses, trucks, and trains connecting their fabric, as long as they are very dense and walkable. I do believe that in a post-peak world we will continue to have some powered transport, as well as bicycles - something that hadn't been invented yet 200 years ago.
While its hard to place a definitive cap city population, it seems that without any energy sources other than human/animal power, it would be possible to sustain a very dense city of about 1 million people. However, what will happen to places like New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles? Will New York have to shrink from 20 million to 10 million? Or maybe 2 or 1 million? Yet, we will also be able to power our society with some amount of solar and wind energy, so what will this help us to achieve?
Furthermore, what will the ratio of rural v urban dwellers become? Currently in the US it stands at 80% urban : 20% rural, where urban is defined as: "urbanized areas over 50,000 pop and urban clusters 2,500 to 49,999 pop."
What do you all think is the limit?