[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oiless', 'M')y conclusion is that the ultimate span of human life has not been increased one iota by modern medicine, we conflate individual results to the whole.

[ritter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')A second wave of worldwide economic crisis could easily put us back to 35 years.

[oiless]

Yes, I did use "span" where "expectancy" would have been more appropriate, my mistake. My take on it is that we don't know. I have a pretty good handle on my family history, going back a good long ways. Pre-antibiotics, one killer was pneumonia, it took a couple of my family members in their prime. War was another. However those who survived the random killers lived into their eighties and nineties.

My mother died of lung cancer at 57, she was a smoker. My father is in his eighties, he smoked much of his life, but does not any more. My father doesn't have any use for doctors.

If society were to collapse today, no more modern medicine, we're back to folk remedies, I would regard my life expectancy as being approximately eighty to ninety years. Yes, some random infection or accident that would be fixable today could wipe me out, but I'd say the odds would be with me, not against me.

If on the other hand you are a type one diabetic, or you have some other condition that requires modern medicine to keep you alive, you have real problems.

I guess what I'm saying is that if you are an adult and you are healthy at the present time odds are that given exercise and enough good food you'll stay that way. Hell, a lot of people might live longer, or at least better, in a world with no doctors AND no junk food.

[dolanbaker]

The biggest threat to health is a breakdown of the sanitation system, keep that functioning and you're halfway there.

[patience]

IIRC, back in the 1990's, there was astrike by some unionized Drs. in LA maybe? The strike was settled quickly when data was published showing that the death rate DECLINED while the Drs. were on strike! Anyone remember that?

Our personal experience has been that the more we avoid doctors, the better off we are. In a truly nasty economic crash, it may happen that we see people surviving longer, aside from the few causes that current medicine does help. After a time, we will have begun to select for healthier people and they will live longer. Presently, our heroic medical efforts to save the weak are propagating more weakness.

On topic, I never thought we ever saw the end of the FIRST wave of this economic crisis. It was papered over for a while, but now we are right back in the soup again. Only now, Europe's woes have had time to fester and the US has also making fundamentals worse everywhere.

Nobody ever saw a wreck like we're gonna have, albeit a slow motion train wreck.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ur personal experience has been that the more we avoid doctors, the better off we are. In a truly nasty economic crash, it may happen that we see people surviving longer, aside from the few causes that current medicine does help. After a time, we will have begun to select for healthier people and they will live longer. Presently, our heroic medical efforts to save the weak are propagating more weakness.

[oiless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'I')IRC, back in the 1990's, there was astrike by some unionized Drs. in LA maybe? The strike was settled quickly when data was published showing that the death rate DECLINED while the Drs. were on strike! Anyone remember that?

[ralfy]

Cross-posted:

"IMF chief warns of new financial meltdown"

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/aug20 ... -a29.shtml

[eXpat]

IMF warns EU on possible Greece default
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')nternational Monetary fund has warned EU to be prepared for the almost inevitable Greece default, which is blamed for dragging the global economy to the brink of a double-dip recession.

The European Union governments have only six weeks to build a financial firewall to protect their fragile banking systems against what is now seen as an inevitable Greek default, The Guardian reported.

The officials attending IMF meeting in Washington suggested that the eurozone bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), should be raised to about EUR 2 trillion, almost five times its current size, to convince markets that it could contain the destabilizing impact of the Greek default.

"The threat of cascading default, bank runs and catastrophic risk must be taken off the table, otherwise it will undermine all other efforts, both within Europe and globally,” the US Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner said at a meeting on Saturday.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Independent.UK -- Global leaders are resigned to a Greek default

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')unday September 25 2011

A Greek default is now "virtually guaranteed" as a host of world political and financial leaders talked openly about such a prospect this weekend. ... G20 sources said up to 50 per cent was likely to be wiped off the face value of Greece's €350bn debt -- but not until Europe had put into place a war chest to prevent the contagion spreading. ...

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '[')url=http://www.independent.ie/world-news/global-leaders-are-resigned-to-a-greek-default-2886979.html]Independent.UK -- [/url]Global leaders are resigned to a Greek default

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')unday September 25 2011

A Greek default is now "virtually guaranteed" as a host of world political and financial leaders talked openly about such a prospect this weekend. ... G20 sources said up to 50 per cent was likely to be wiped off the face value of Greece's €350bn debt -- but not until Europe had put into place a war chest to prevent the contagion spreading. ...

[NoWorries]

Nah -- There'll be a last-minute deus ex machina of some sort to fix it. Just watch and see. This can has been kicked many, many times, and will likely be kicked even further.

Besides, even if the news is bad the Dow will still keep climbing nevertheless.

It has defied gravity for this long -- there' s no need for it to stop now.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'N')ah -- There'll be a last-minute deus ex machina of some sort to fix it. Just watch and see. This can has been kicked many, many times, and will likely be kicked even further.

Besides, even if the news is bad the Dow will still keep climbing nevertheless.

It has defied gravity for this long -- there' s no need for it to stop now.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'T')he biggest threat to health is a breakdown of the sanitation system, keep that functioning and you're halfway there.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Merkel: Greek Default Would Ruin Euro

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ERLIN | Sun Sep 25, 2011 3:46pm EDT

(Reuters) - Allowing Greece to default on its debt now would destroy investor confidence in the euro zone and might spark contagion like that experienced after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Sunday.

"We need to take steps we can control," Merkel said, drawing a parallel between the Greek situation and that of Lehman, whose bankruptcy helped trigger the global financial crisis.

"What we can't do is destroy the confidence of all investors mid-course and get a situation where they say that if we've done it for Greece, we will also do it for Spain, for Belgium, or any other country. Then not a single person would put their money in Europe anymore."

In a one-hour interview on the euro zone crisis with the popular German talk show host Guenther Jauch, Merkel said she relied on the view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) when assessing how to handle Greece. As long as the IMF was convinced Greece's debt was sustainable, then she supported that position, she said. ...

... Merkel also said she was "appalled" at a lack of progress from the Group of 20 countries in forging a consensus on regulating banks and dealing with the "too big to fail" problem.

[PrestonSturges]

You can save yourself a lot of grief by listening to George Soros. He said to get out of the market in early 2008, and he says to get out now. Anyone who listened to Soros sailed through the financial crash without a scratch, anyone who listened to conservative media lost their shirts. No wonder they hate him.

[Daniel_Plainview]

German turmoil over EU bail-outs as top judge calls for referendum
Germany's top judge has issued a blunt warning that no further fiscal powers may be surrendered to Europe without a new constitution and a popular referendum, vastly complicating plans to boost the EU's rescue machinery to €2 trillion (£1.7 trillion).
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ndreas Vosskuhle, head of the constitutional court, said "The sovereignty of the German state is inviolate and anchored in perpetuity by basic law. It may not be abandoned by the legislature (even with its powers to amend the constitution). There is little leeway left for giving up core powers to the EU. If one wants to go beyond this limit – which might be politically legitimate and desirable – then Germany must give itself a new constitution. A referendum would be necessary. This cannot be done without the people."

[Duende]

I heard on NPR this morning that the plan is for Greece to default on half its debt and then recapitalize European banks to prevent a run. I wonder if this action would further bolster the dollar vs. the Euro?

[eXpat]

Very telling charts.
Are We Headed Into A Recess/Depress-ion? The Answer In 9 Simple Charts
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or some odd reason, even though it is by now very, very clear that the world is back in a depressionary state, some are still fascinated by the inflection point of the global economy, and wonder: "are we headed for a recession?" (which obviously is the wrong question). Anyway, to help with the answer is this set of 9 interactive charts from Reuters which should remove any last bit of doubt as to what is about to unfold, at least in the perception of conventional wisdom. Furthermore, since most of these data sets are coincident or lagging, it is safe to say that the NBER will shortly announce that the recession started some time in H1.

[Daniel_Plainview]

ZH -- European Equity and Bond Correlation Indicates Growth Fears Highest In 40 Years
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The way European equities have performed recently suggests investors are more fearful about growth – and less worried about inflation – than at any time in the last 40 years. ... It's not dissimilar to the levels reached in the initial credit crunch period of ‘07/’08. ...

Indeed the correlation between bond yields and equities has been high and positive in Japan since the mid 1990s, and reached the same levels we see in Europe today on a temporary basis on several occasions. In Europe, the current point on the scatter plot below is at the extreme top left; we see little chance that it will move away from this point in the short term while concerns about growth risks dominate.