PeakOil is You
Large and Unusual Blackouts
Re: Large and Unusual Blackouts
by babystrangeloop » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 08:21:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'T')he world's largest economy isn't China, it is the US.
Stop making stuff up, it's childish.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The world gets back to burning
Schumpeter / The Economist / June 8, 2011
China. In 2000, China consumed 11% of the world’s energy; in 2010 it consumed 20.3% of a significantly bigger pie, making it the biggest energy consumer on the planet for the first time in BP’s books (other analyses have made China number one in earlier years; BP doesn’t look at biomass burned in stoves and treats Hong Kong separately, which accounts for the discrepancy).
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'T')hen the US can sell coal to them, at market prices
Nobody buys coal just to have coal. They buy coal to make something they can sell for more than they paid for the coal.
In China's case the government regulates the price of electricity making it impossible to make money buying coal and burning it to make electricity to sell. In fact those trying to do that are losing money. How long can this go on? What's the alternative? The alternative is to stop making electricity to cut losses. That's the blackouts. That's Shanghai turning of air-conditioning when the temperature hits 37 C. That's what it's all about. Now if you don't mind I'll get back to aggregating the news about it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Chinese Oil Demand 101: The Role Of Electricity – Analysis
Written by: Eurasia Review / June 23, 2011
... Similar issues were at play in 2007-2008, when a growing wedge between market-based coal prices and state-regulated electricity prices made it uneconomical for some utilities to produce electricity, again resulting in shortages. In response, the state implemented new rates and pricing mechanisms in late 2008, which alleviated economic pressures to some extent. The economic downturn also helped mitigate shortages at the time.
This summer, China appears to be bracing itself for what the State Grid Corporation of China warned may prove to be the worst electricity shortages since 2004. Potential shortages may result from a combination of market-related fuel prices and lagging incentives in the electricity generation market. Earlier this week, the China Electricity Council reported that the five largest state-owned power generating companies showed significant losses in their thermal power business in May, even after tariffs charged to grid operators in some provinces were increased in April. In short, coal prices have run ahead of electricity prices, causing electricity generators to run at a loss – and thus providing them with a disincentive to produce electricity.
In addition, severe drought conditions have curtailed China’s hydroelectricity generation, compounding the impact of potential shortfalls in coal-fired power generation. Hydroelectric generation is a substantial secondary source of Chinese electric generation, accounting for more than 16 percent of power supply. Reportedly, some areas of the country have experienced the worst drought in 50 years. Unlike in 2008, economic recession is unlikely to curb electricity demand growth.
In an attempt to avert shortfalls, China raised electricity prices to industrial, agricultural, and commercial consumers in at least 15 provinces. Prices to residential customers were left unchanged. While the new rates went into effect on June 1, the China Electricity Council warned of shortages of about 30 gigawatts during the summer of 2011, which implies the potential for significantly increased demand for crude oil and products, as electricity consumers will look to replace state electricity with their own power generation. Already middle distillates (diesel) account for the lion’s share of Chinese oil demand (unlike the United States, where gasoline plays that role). One of the consequences of the expected uptick in Chinese oil demand for electricity generation this summer will be to further increase diesel’s share of the Chinese demand barrel. ...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Profit growth of Chinese power industry down by 25pct MoM
National Business Daily via SteelGuru / June 27, 2011
National Business Daily citing the China Electricity Council said the power industry recorded profits of CNY 11.4 billion in April with the rate of growth down 25%MoM.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Shanghai to ration power to offices, malls
AAP / June 21, 2011
Authorities in China's financial hub of Shanghai will for the first time ration power to thousands of office buildings and malls this summer due to chronic shortages, state media reported.
... Over 3,000 non-industrial businesses will have to turn off air conditioners periodically if temperatures hit 35 degrees to ensure there is enough power for residents, the Oriental Morning Post said.
... "If it is unusually hot and the temperatures hit 37 degrees Celsius we hope these office buildings and shops can shut down and take a break," the unnamed official was quoted saying last week.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Coal shortage likely to affect power sector
Dileep Athavale / Times India, TNN / June 20, 2011
PUNE: Credit ratings firm, Fitch, said on Monday that coal shortages, which are likely to persist over the short-to-medium term could adversely affect Indias power generation companies.
... Coal demand has increased significantly with the commissioning of new coal-fired generation capacity. Given Indias chronic power deficit, this trend is likely to continue. A lower-than-expected increase in domestic coal production, particularly due to delays in the development of captive coal blocks allocated to the power generators, has added to the demand-supply gap, Salil Garg, Director in Fitchs energy and utilities team, said. ...
... Fitch notes that the increasing dependence on imported coal is a challenge for the Indian companies. First, the price of imported coal is higher than the price of domestic coal bought from CIL under fuel supply agreements, although this only affects generators which cannot pass-on fuel costs through PPAs. Secondly, the weak coal transportation infrastructure between ports and power plants can lead to supply shortages affecting generation output. ...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Length of power outages in Greece set to increase
PennWell Corporation / June 27, 2011
Public Power Corporation (PPC), Greece’s biggest electricity utility, is to increase the length of power cuts to help balance demand as workers continue to strike. PPC is seeking to have the strike declared “illegal and abusive”. ...
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