Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Timo » Thu 23 Jun 2011, 11:42:21

Relax! Everything will be just fine for everyone if we just let the US Chamber of Commerce and the Koch Brothers have their way. Place your implicit trust in their ideological world, and have faith in their visions for us all. It'll all be all right. They said so, and politicians agree.
Timo
 

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby GoIllini » Thu 23 Jun 2011, 15:37:26

It's a tale of two economies. Honestly, I think population in the world/US is going to track lower over the next 30 years, largely peacefully although with a few collapses in the third world like we're seeing now. In the western world, it will be hard to get married and have kids if you don't have a job, naturally reducing population pressures. As the older folks start exiting the mortal realm, there will be more resources and infrastructure for everyone else.

Have your kids study engineering, accounting, medicine, agricultural science, or math, and train them to save money like crazy, and they'll be just fine. If you're really worried, make sure they stay in a country with a lot of farmland and a huge military- or at least friendly neighbors- like the US or Canada. The secret to making it in the new economy isn't to be a wealthy oligarch but to have a fundamentally valuable education and live within your means.

There will be a few wars and famines in the meantime, and the smaller government we see today in the US is unfortunately going to move tens of millions into the working poor as the manufacturing jobs come back from China, but intelligent folks with difficult-to-get skills will be just fine.
User avatar
GoIllini
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 765
Joined: Sat 05 Mar 2005, 04:00:00

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 18 Aug 2011, 08:54:56

Labor Market in Turmoil -- Jobless Claims Soar by 9,000, Leaping past 400K barrier to 408,000
Image
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ore Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, signaling the labor market is struggling two years into the economic recovery. Jobless claims climbed by 9,000 to 408,000 in the week ended Aug. 13, the highest in a month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a rise in claims to 400,000, according to the median forecast. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls rose, while those receiving extended payments fell.
Image
Companies like Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK) are paring staff, one reason consumers are limiting their spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Unemployment at 9.1 percent helps explain why Federal Reserve policy makers last week pledged to hold interest rates at a record low until at least mid-2013 to spur growth. “People continue to get laid off. The uncertainty in the economic outlook is continuing to give hiring managers sleepless nights and is keeping businesses from expanding. We have an incredibly long way to go,” said David Semmens, a U.S. economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York.
Image
Jobless benefits applications were projected to rise from the 395,000 initially reported for the prior week, according to the median forecast of 41 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from 390,000 to 420,000.
Today’s data showed the four-week moving average, a less- volatile measure than the weekly figures, dropped to 402,500 last week, the lowest since April 16, from 406,000.
User avatar
Daniel_Plainview
Prognosticator
Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4220
Joined: Tue 06 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: 7035 Hollis ... Near the Observatory ... Just down the way, tucked back in the small woods

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 18 Aug 2011, 19:47:47

I don't think OIlfinder has posted once since the downgrade.

What happened.. I could use good news, I want to hear the positive spin on gold shooting through the roof, USA downgraded, Europe verging on a Lehman implosion (rumor is some of their banks are about to go under)..

Oilfinder where are you?

Did he bug out to Bolivia with all his gold? 8O

I'm not joking here, the day all the cornies bug out we know it's serious. :cry:
User avatar
Sixstrings
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 15160
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby americandream » Thu 18 Aug 2011, 20:27:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'I') don't think OIlfinder has posted once since the downgrade.

What happened.. I could use good news, I want to hear the positive spin on gold shooting through the roof, USA downgraded, Europe verging on a Lehman implosion (rumor is some of their banks are about to go under)..

Oilfinder where are you?

Did he bug out to Bolivia with all his gold? 8O

I'm not joking here, the day all the cornies bug out we know it's serious. :cry:


Calm down. Capitalism will outlive you. In fact, the good times are around the corner for the astute. Cheap labour, cheap goods, limits to travel for the employed masses and increasing commodification of working class women. I anticipate a boom in the import bride business for example. Full commodification of everything capable of being exchanged.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 18 Aug 2011, 21:01:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'I') don't think OIlfinder has posted once since the downgrade.

Huh? Browse my posts, I've been here just as often as usual.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 18 Aug 2011, 21:02:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')oday’s data showed the four-week moving average, a less- volatile measure than the weekly figures, dropped to 402,500 last week, the lowest since April 16, from 406,000.

You forgot to highlight this. :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia
Top

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby americandream » Thu 18 Aug 2011, 21:04:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'I') don't think OIlfinder has posted once since the downgrade.

Huh? Browse my posts, I've been here just as often as usual.


I would have been surprised if you had gone doom (prematurely). Plenty of bullish signals out there if you know where to look. Employment is a done deal however. Premium wage Western labour's days are over.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 18 Aug 2011, 21:21:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I') would have been surprised if you had gone doom (prematurely)

I actually *do* have a metric which will make me "go doom." And it happens to be the topic of this thread:

If initial unemployment claims (SA) start to head steadily upward, and regularly start hitting the mid-400's by, say, October or November, that is my "doom signal."
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia
Top

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 18 Aug 2011, 21:27:48

which bullish signals ad?
User avatar
kiwichick
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2267
Joined: Sat 02 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Southland New Zealand

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby americandream » Thu 18 Aug 2011, 21:54:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kiwichick', 'w')hich bullish signals ad?


The one particular one I like is the FDI confidence index, especially China. India would be a close second, especially after its bourgeoisie anti-corruption drive took off. Watch those closely.They will continue to be strong in the years ahead despite all the yabbering from the various authorities, who are just well paid managers. To some extent, you can estimate Australia's own growth potential (all commodity nations in fact) by simply watching this, period in, period out. I tend to watch this monthly.

Putting on my Marxist hat, when the flows significantly reverse and do so consistently, period over period for at least one year, the numbers quite possibly up for capitalism and you had better batten down your hatches.

We are currently in an adjustment as the labouring classes in the West are made to hand back premiums they can no longer justify given the availabilty of profitable labour elsewhere.

edit: btw are you a trader. You seem to follow the business news with a particular slant?
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 08:45:50

Now we know why jobless claims went up last week - and why they went up again today:

Labor Department says:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')i]Special Factor: As a result of a labor dispute between Communications Workers of America and Verizon Communications, at least 12,500 initial claims were filed in the week ending 8/13/2011 and at least 8,500 initial claims were filed in the week ending 8/20/2011.

So, the 412K from last week would have been about 400K without the strike, and the 417K out this week would have been about 409K without the strike.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia
Top

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby ritter » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 11:51:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')So, the 412K from last week would have been about 400K without the strike, and the 417K out this week would have been about 409K without the strike.


Can people on strike claim unemployment?
ritter
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 858
Joined: Fri 14 Oct 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby steam_cannon » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 12:20:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ritter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')So, the 412K from last week would have been about 400K without the strike, and the 417K out this week would have been about 409K without the strike.


Can people on strike claim unemployment?
I think it can depend on the state.

Washington - Yes
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('usatoday', '[')url=http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2011-08-25/Verizon-strikers-inflate-weekly-unemployment-numbers/50133796/1]Verizon strikers inflate weekly unemployment numbers[/url] (8/25/2011)
Excluding the work stoppage, layoffs likely fell. That should help ease fears that the economy is on the verge of recession.

Weekly applications for unemployment benefits rose 5,000 the week ended Aug. 20 to a seasonally adjusted 417,000, the Labor Department said.

Ohio - No
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('labor.idaho.gov', '[')url=http://labor.idaho.gov/dnn/Default.aspx?tabid=701&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1]Questions & Answers About Unemployment Insurance[/url]

# Strike and Other Industrial Controversy. If you are unemployed because of a strike, lockout or other industrial controversy in which you are participating, your request for unemployment insurance benefits may be denied.
"The multiplication force of technology on cognitive differences is massive." -Jordan Peterson
User avatar
steam_cannon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2859
Joined: Thu 28 Dec 2006, 04:00:00
Location: MA
Top

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 13:00:33

Stiglitz Says Probability of U.S. Recession ‘Very High’

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')obel-prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said the chances of the U.S. economy going back into recession are “very high.” “The unemployment situation in the U.S. is very severe and very probably going to get worse,” Stiglitz told reporters today at a conference in Lindau, Germany. “There’s a very high probability we’ll go into double dip.” Claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose 5,000 to 417,000 in the week ended Aug. 20, Labor Department figures showed today.
Image
The U.S. unemployment rate is 9.1 percent. Stiglitz said calls by policy makers to engage in deficit- cutting austerity measures were heading in “exactly the wrong direction.” “The most important way to address the deficit is to get America back to work, to get the economy back to full employment,” Stiglitz said at an annual gathering of Nobel Prize-winning economists. “Austerity is going to get us predictably into trouble. Spend the money on investments, and those investments will lead to higher growth.”


Bloomberg
User avatar
Daniel_Plainview
Prognosticator
Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4220
Joined: Tue 06 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: 7035 Hollis ... Near the Observatory ... Just down the way, tucked back in the small woods
Top

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 08 Sep 2011, 08:44:04

U.S. jobless claims rise to 414,000
Image
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Applications for unemployment compensation rose to 414,000 last week from 412,000, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast claims to rise to a seasonally adjusted 411,000 in the week ended Sept. 3. Initial claims for two weeks ago were revised up from an original reading of 409,000. A government official said last week's hurricane in the Northeast appeared to have little effect on claims, but data for four states including California and Virginia had to be estimated because of the Labor Day holiday. The average of new claims over the past four weeks, meanwhile, rose by 3,750 to 414,750, the highest level since mid-July. The monthly average is seen as a more accurate gauge of labor trends because it smoothes out volatility in the week-to-week data. About 7.17 million people received some kind of state or federal benefit in the week of Aug. 20, down 167,009 from the prior week. In addition, the number of Americans who continue to receive benefits through regular state unemployment programs fell by 30,000 to 3.72 million in the week ended Aug 27.
User avatar
Daniel_Plainview
Prognosticator
Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4220
Joined: Tue 06 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: 7035 Hollis ... Near the Observatory ... Just down the way, tucked back in the small woods
Top

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 08 Sep 2011, 22:51:12

ad


no i would say long term investor who sometimes trades if the profit gets obscene

your comment re western workers giving back undeserved wage premium is correct and has been for at least 40 years

the west peaked in the 1960's
User avatar
kiwichick
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2267
Joined: Sat 02 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Southland New Zealand

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 15 Sep 2011, 13:01:11

Recession Fears Worsen as Jobless Claims Jump by 11,000, Reaching a Horrific 428,000
Image
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')NEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending September 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 428,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 417,000. The 4-week moving average was 419,500, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 415,500.
User avatar
Daniel_Plainview
Prognosticator
Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4220
Joined: Tue 06 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: 7035 Hollis ... Near the Observatory ... Just down the way, tucked back in the small woods
Top

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Thu 15 Sep 2011, 14:17:26

Last weekend I was pondering why with such high unemployment is there so much traffic during rush hour each day and why restaurants in my neighborhood are always packed?

I even tried to make a reservation to go out to dinner (knowing in advance that the place would have at least a 45minute wait) and the folks at the restaurant said I can't, I can only do a call ahead which would give me about a 15 minute lead on anyone else walking through the door.

Later that day, I sat in Texas Road House, with my girlfriend, wait list pager in hand and salty peanuts in the other. I overheard a couple talking about doing side jobs since unemployment benefits weren't cutting it to pay bills. I thought about it for a minute. Two people, out to dinner, collecting UI beni's and working side jobs. Texas Road House isn't exactly cheap. I'd place it on a scale of 6 or 7 out of ten, Applebee's being a solid 3 and Chili's maybe a 5. Needless to say, all three restaurants are located near each other and they're all packed.

I got to thinking about how many people are claiming UI beni's, working side jobs or under the table deals, and getting away with collecting UI beni's. Clearly the couple I overheard had enough money to go out to dinner at a nice place, so that of-course burned me but o'well.

Yesterday on the news I hear about 4, that's four, people getting busted for Unemployment Fraud and how the state is out to catch people taking advantage of the system. I really don't think there's a chance in hell the state could catch many of the people taking advantage of the system.

When I see these numbers go up or rise, I really have to wonder how many of the people are legitimately unemployed? I sometimes wonder if people are signing up fake information?

Any idea's on or comments on the percentage of people abusing the system?
ColossalContrarian
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1374
Joined: Tue 20 Jun 2006, 03:00:00

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby beamofthewave » Thu 15 Sep 2011, 15:09:47

I don't think Americans who are unemployed realize what dire straits they are in and that they really should not spend money on eating out. They don't get it that many of their fellow citizens are going to be oh so fine with watching them starve to death on the streets once the money is gone and they cant find work. After that guy yelling with happiness and gratitude about letting old folks die without medical care at the Ron Paul debate, I do not understand how they dont get it and they dont. I for one am very grateful for unemployment insurance as a piece of a very frail safety net that the USA has.
User avatar
beamofthewave
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 128
Joined: Sun 10 Aug 2008, 03:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron