Maybe it could look stupid, but I would like to repeat the concept as it seems to me there are a lots of people suffering too much here.
It was nice to hear oil does not influence fertilizer so much. All the doomer blogs always say a different thing.
Resuming what I read from the thread ("I am just home from the Uppsala Peak Oil seminar!") http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic8144.html :
1) Electricity production will survive peak oil (it depends from natural gas which will peak much after).
2) Food production will survive as well (bread might cost 10% more).
3) The only sector that will be deeply affected is transportation.
That sounds to me as there is more probability for a soft landing.
PeakOil is You
To make the point
First unread post • 13 posts
• Page 1 of 1
To make the point
by princegio » Thu 26 May 2005, 19:38:40
-
princegio - Wood
- Posts: 19
- Joined: Sat 19 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
by RonMN » Thu 26 May 2005, 20:21:22
isn't it "transportation" that brings that loaf of bread to the store?
isn't it "transportation" that brings the wheat to the mill?
isn't it "transportation" that brings the flour to the baker?
I'm sorry...what was your point?
isn't it "transportation" that brings the wheat to the mill?
isn't it "transportation" that brings the flour to the baker?
I'm sorry...what was your point?
-
RonMN - Intermediate Crude
- Posts: 2628
- Joined: Fri 18 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
- Location: Minnesota
- Ludi
by RonMN » Thu 26 May 2005, 23:33:08
My point was not that they can't produce bread...My point is if i can't get to that bread or if it can't get to me...it's worthless to me.
If it's not a matter of "not getting to me" but a matter of price because of transportation...then the price will go up much farther than 10% (even though the actual "production" cost only went up 10%).
If it's not a matter of "not getting to me" but a matter of price because of transportation...then the price will go up much farther than 10% (even though the actual "production" cost only went up 10%).
-
RonMN - Intermediate Crude
- Posts: 2628
- Joined: Fri 18 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
- Location: Minnesota
by b0nez » Fri 27 May 2005, 00:30:20
Due to the deflation of the economy to get rid of wasteful,high energy companies,joblessness will be massive.The biggest problem that will likely be is making enough currency to buy the hyperinflated loaf of bread.Not to mention security at the market....
- b0nez
- Peat
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Tue 02 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
by strider3700 » Fri 27 May 2005, 01:24:39
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('princegio', 'Y')es, but the cost of bread is made by many inputs not only oil. Moreover in most of the cases bread is a local product.
Like most complex machines It only takes 1 part to fail for the entire thing to stop.
And based on the fact that my natural gas has almost trippled in the past 10 years, and we came damn close to running out a couple of winters ago I don't think we can rely on natural gas to soften things for long.
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
- strider3700
- Intermediate Crude
- Posts: 2865
- Joined: Sun 17 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: Vancouver Island
by linlithgowoil » Fri 27 May 2005, 04:49:11
although i do believe that oil depletion is mainly a transportation problem - it is also an underlying problem because so many things are dependant on oil.
thing is though, lets just for a second assume that the only problem is going to be for transport. if oil prices double, and petrol prices too (not sure if they would?), then this will cause big problems for many people.
i know i cant afford to pay much more per month on petrol, and i know that many haulage firms in the UK cant either. so, you'll have lots of people ditching their cars to use... what? the UK public transport system is at capacity (dont know about the US).
the problem as well is that the use of cars etc. is a whole sub-set of the economy in itself. cars need servicing, parts, cleaning, etc., people also buy lots of accessories for their cars.
so, even if it is going to cause 'just' a massive reduction in car use, then the economy is still in serious problems. i refute that we'll all starve though. the government will divert all fuels to food production and distribution, and essential services. we'll probably see the 3 day working week again (awesome!! i cant wait!).
i do tend to agree more with deffeyes rather than heinberg though. i cant see us slowly returning to medieval times. we'll ramp up coal, nuclear, anything, rather than go backwards in energy use. if this means killing ourselves in the process, we'll still do it.
thing is though, lets just for a second assume that the only problem is going to be for transport. if oil prices double, and petrol prices too (not sure if they would?), then this will cause big problems for many people.
i know i cant afford to pay much more per month on petrol, and i know that many haulage firms in the UK cant either. so, you'll have lots of people ditching their cars to use... what? the UK public transport system is at capacity (dont know about the US).
the problem as well is that the use of cars etc. is a whole sub-set of the economy in itself. cars need servicing, parts, cleaning, etc., people also buy lots of accessories for their cars.
so, even if it is going to cause 'just' a massive reduction in car use, then the economy is still in serious problems. i refute that we'll all starve though. the government will divert all fuels to food production and distribution, and essential services. we'll probably see the 3 day working week again (awesome!! i cant wait!).
i do tend to agree more with deffeyes rather than heinberg though. i cant see us slowly returning to medieval times. we'll ramp up coal, nuclear, anything, rather than go backwards in energy use. if this means killing ourselves in the process, we'll still do it.
-
linlithgowoil - Tar Sands
- Posts: 828
- Joined: Mon 20 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: Scotland
Re: To make the point
by RG73 » Fri 27 May 2005, 05:16:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('princegio', 'I')t was nice to hear oil does not influence fertilizer so much. All the doomer blogs always say a different thing.
No, I was wrong on that. So it was natural gas that is a primary fertilizer. That will be gone soon enough. Nevermind that water depletion is going to become a problem in many places sooner that peak gas, so it won't really matter much. Can't grow crops without water.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')1) Electricity production will survive peak oil (it depends from natural gas which will peak much after).
Sure it will. But how much electricity will be produced? Nothing near where we're at now, at least in the US.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')2) Food production will survive as well (bread might cost 10% more).
Of course it will. But it won't support 6.5 billion people.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')3) The only sector that will be deeply affected is transportation.
That sounds to me as there is more probability for a soft landing.
So seeing as the entire world economy is tied into transportation, I think you are treating this problem a little lightly. If all commerce becomes super expensive because of transportation costs, don't you think this will throw a little monkey wrench into things?
But hey, in the same thread you wish to rehash, I pointed out about a dozen other things that will get us if peak oil doesn't. You can call people doomers all you want, but it doesn't change the fact of finite resources on a planet populated by dumb humans. It cannot have a happy ending. There haven't been a whole lot of success stories on Earth. No reason to expect humans are going to succeed when something as well adapted and with a reasonable appetite like a trilobite got nailed with extinction.
; ENEL, national Italian electricity producer, planned to become completely independent from oil within 2010-2012. 