[babystrangeloop]

I found out about Peak Oil in 2004 in just 4 years the "2008 event" with $147/barrel and October stock collapse occurred. Next can bailouts which evolved into "quantitative easting" (QE and QE Lite and QE2.) Just 7 years after my 2004 discovery the re-inflation came, the Middle-Eastern/North Africa freakout hit, the UK riots, and $110 - $120 OPEC ORB oil and latest development IEA SPR world emergency 60 million barrel oil release which brought down the price during August only to wear off and have little effect by September.

All that in just seven years. To me that is a pretty fast crash in progress and getting worse all the time. What will another three years of this be like? Is 10 years a "fast" or "slow" crash?

[dolanbaker]

I think that the economy is in for a fast crash as it's becoming increasingly clear that infinite growth is no longer sustainable and the debts that future growth was supposed to deal with, will never be repaid.

How that will play out, I don't really know, except the fact that I don't expect pensions to perform in the future.
It may well be that debt based money is replaced by government issued "debt free" currency.

Civilisation in general I expect to have a much slower decline as it will ride the slope down under a different economic model. Without a change of financial management the crash will be hard!

There is a very long way to decline before the people of the west have to worry about food security for example.

[kpeavey]

Slow Crash: Detroit
Fast Crash: Katrina

I think it all depends on the ability of the population to adjust to changes in their lifestyles. If you or your spouse loses your job, maybe you can get by for a little while, find another job, tighten your belts. There is time to adjust to a significant change.

If the grid goes down, water pressure drops to zero, nobody has a job, all the food in your freezer goes bad, and there is no official news and information coming over a dead radio. Unless you have made preparations for this contingency, there is little chance for a smooth transition to a different lifestyle.

For most of the sheeple out there, it will be a fast crash. Tunnel vision has them focusing on raising kids, keeping up with the latest fashion, or making sure the lawn is mowed to satisfy the homeowners association. Looking to the media does not help, as the media is not reporting the story. Leadership is concerned with immediate concerns rather than long term problems. Preparing for a transition in lifestyle is simply not being undertaken in the scale which will be needed for society to continue its current level of organization.

As problems develop, the government leadership will address it with a special commission, band aid legislation, and a reallocation of funds. There will be no addressing the problem because at its core, overpopulation and limited resources, there is no technical solution. All that can be done is bail water out of the boat faster and faster, until the thing finally sinks.

The crash will be slow for a while, then all at once it will be fast.

[Sixstrings]

I dunno, but gold spot is at $1885. I'd hate to see a "fast crash."

[AgentR11]

Thing to keep in mind, Emergency Management people pull their hair out just trying to get people to keep three days worth of food in their pantries and a few gallons of liquid in their fridges.

We are absolute outliers, and the way we see a crash is an outlier. For those not of this particular mindset, crash is crash, fast or slow, it'll be bad.

Basic definition for myself, relies on the what happens to the grid. If it just goes urp and they can't get it back up for more than just emergency & systemic loads; that's a fast crash; if we get rolling blackouts that get longer and longer each year, or the price for electricity becomes so high that middle class folks choose to not keep their homes cold in the summer; that's a slow crash.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'I') think that the economy is in for a fast crash as it's becoming increasingly clear that infinite growth is no longer sustainable and the debts that future growth was supposed to deal with, will never be repaid.

How that will play out, I don't really know, except the fact that I don't expect pensions to perform in the future.
It may well be that debt based money is replaced by government issued "debt free" currency.

Civilisation in general I expect to have a much slower decline as it will ride the slope down under a different economic model. Without a change of financial management the crash will be hard!

There is a very long way to decline before the people of the west have to worry about food security for example.

[Sys1]

I think the notion of fast crash or slow one depends on your own situation.
Nevertheless, I feel a big event (economic crash, nuke terrorism, Israel having fun with Iran...) will happen soon and will reset the position of everyone in this society.
It will be a time of suffering and... opportunity. The way hierarchy is will be upside down.
What was interesting in "Jericho" was that a guy just getting out of prison becomes a hero.
On the other hand, a rich trader can go nowhere but down.

[americandream]

China, the canary.

[Plantagenet]

We are still on the oil production plateau.

If you think we are "crashing" now, just wait a few years until global oil production starts an inexorable decline of 3-7% each year.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'T')hing to keep in mind, Emergency Management people pull their hair out just trying to get people to keep three days worth of food in their pantries and a few gallons of liquid in their fridges.

[Diecast]

(Economic or species crash)
Since humans began exploiting FF,s we have defied Jevon's paradox, thumbed our nose at the exponential function, tripled the population of the earth, caused massive species extinction, acidification of the oceans, soil degradation, ozone depletion, an inexorable rise in atmospheric CO2 and methane and set in motion a species extinction scenario brought about by sea level rise and climate change due to global warming.

The economic crash will be fast, the consequences of failing to anticipate then correct our excesses will inevitably lead to a slow roasting (in human terms but instant in geological) of the entire planet.

Now I'll return to eating lunch.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('babystrangeloop', 'A')ll that in just seven years. To me that is a pretty fast crash

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', ' ')you WILL get old and WILL need savings.

[Pops]

Actually, I was a little long winded, let me be more direct,

If you think 2008 was the peak oil event and believe since you still feel fine, that must mean peak oil itself is a non-event, I think you should reconsider.

[peeker01]

2008 was a peak speculation event.

[Ferretlover]

Fast crash: total or almost total collapse within a few days or few weeks by any cause--war, weather, peak anything, or man's general stupidity.
Slow crash: what is happening now. Slow to us because we have been conditioned to expect instant gratification, and we're not getting it at the moment.

[diemos]

In the US the slow crash has been going on since the first oil shock.

The peak of US prosperity came in 1968. In 1968 a man with a high school education could get a job on the assembly line and make enough money to support a stay at home wife and children, own a home, own a car, have a decent retirement.

Those days are long gone.

[Thralen]

I'm of the opinion that we are in the early stages of a slow crash. I've always thought it would be a roller coaster ride where the drops are wild but then we return to the top of a hill, only the top is slightly lower for each successive hill. Somewhere along the track the rails are missing, but it's dark out so we ride away until we find the missing portion the hard way. That would be the fast crash that finally terminates the slower one we are now experiencing.

So I think my definition of slow crash is what we are seeing. Things slowly deteriorating year after year with one problem showing up before the last is totally fixed, causing none of them to get fixed properly.

At some point we'll hit the fast crash, which I think of as lasting from a day or so up to possibly as long as a month. Where problems go systemic, each one rapidly causing another (or more than one more) failure in a cascade style.

Thralen

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'I') think that the economy is in for a fast crash as it's becoming increasingly clear that infinite growth is no longer sustainable and the debts that future growth was supposed to deal with, will never be repaid.

How that will play out, I don't really know, except the fact that I don't expect pensions to perform in the future.
It may well be that debt based money is replaced by government issued "debt free" currency.

Civilisation in general I expect to have a much slower decline as it will ride the slope down under a different economic model. Without a change of financial management the crash will be hard!

There is a very long way to decline before the people of the west have to worry about food security for example.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'I') think that the economy is in for a fast crash as it's becoming increasingly clear that infinite growth is no longer sustainable and the debts that future growth was supposed to deal with, will never be repaid.