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Hydrocarbon Depletion & the Myth of Alternatives

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Unread postby entropyfails » Thu 26 May 2005, 15:00:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('highlander', 'I')t seems to me there is a logical disconnect between oil and energy. Oil is mostly consumed for transportation. LPG and coal are used to produce power, with which we make all our widgets. Even when there is no oil, we still will have, what, 10 years of LPG and 100 years of coal left. How we transport these energy sources to their point of use could be problematic.


Yeah, but that ends up circling back on itself. Capitalism works by moving goods from areas of abundance to areas of scarcity. If we own a thing worth X, we can move it to a new area where it is worth more than X, (say Z) and collect the profit Y. (Z = X +Y) That equation forms the basis of our economic system. Y, then, serves as the combination of our profit plus transport costs. Y= P + T.

Now in your view, X will stay the same because we will have the energy to run the power plants. (and the point of how much oil keeps this operational seems important as well, as you mentioned. I think X will rise, pushing it closer to Z and thus eating into Y, alternatively many current “X” values sit far beyond reason and will drop, so the jury seems out on this one) Even then, assuming our product has a normal demand curve, an ever increasing T pushes our profits P to 0. Of course, T won’t increase forever, so we need to figure out at what price for a barrel of oil will cause the profit to go to 0 for most of civilization. Simmons feels that that about $180 serves as the point in the modern economic system. After that point, you need to start doing something else because your current structure doesn’t make a profit anymore. Will oil hit this price and cause the transition after peak? I believe so.

Obviously, this transition has many people worried and worried people tend to react irrationally. If we substitute living plant material for oil because of our irrational fear of change, I think we would accelerate the degradation of our ecosystem. If shortages get improperly allocated, millions could die of starvation. These millions will eat their local environment before they die, however. They also have a tendency to pick up a gun and go to where they can find food. So the combination of economic change along with the current level of human advancement serves as the foundation for this crisis.

For this reason, I feel that posting and discussing about Peak Oil on this site helps. If we decide to start changing our way of life in response to this transition, we have a chance of not eating our planet and killing ourselves in the process. However if we continue to do more of the same, I have yet to see anyone post what full horrors await us on that path. Education serves as the only viable option because we only have to change our beliefs to find a way beyond this.
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 May 2005, 15:16:25

Very succinct post, EntropyFails. :-D
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Re: Hydrocarbon Depletion & the Myth of Alternatives

Unread postby johnmarkos » Thu 26 May 2005, 16:05:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'H')ow long to convert the millions upon millions of vehicles, fueling stations, processing plants?


I think any successful future scenario presupposes that America (and the developed world as a whole) will kick the car addiction (or illness, if you want to call it that).

Personal transportation is the most energy-intensive activity in modern society. It is also the most wasteful. This means that it is the area in which we can gain the most from efficiency with the least pain.

And I just realized something. I think I'm barking up the wrong tree. I've been sending letters to my congresswoman, Nancy Pelosi. The person whose ear we really want . . . is Bill Ford. If a head of the U.S. auto industry (or even the Japanese auto industry) wakes up to PO, then maybe we have a chance of moving one of these boulders.

That said, I make no claims about our chances of success in averting doom. I'm avoiding PO prognostication these days.
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Re: Hydrocarbon Depletion & the Myth of Alternatives

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 26 May 2005, 16:26:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', 'I') think any successful future scenario presupposes that America (and the developed world as a whole) will kick the car addiction


Realising that means everyone will need to move to the city or near mass transit hub....so, no living in the country unless you're self-sufficient or have alternate transportation (home biodeisel plant, horse and buggy, bicycle truck, or suchlike).
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Unread postby ArimoDave » Thu 26 May 2005, 16:50:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('highlander', 'I')t seems to me there is a logical disconnect between oil and energy. Oil is mostly consumed for transportation. LPG and coal are used to produce power, with which we make all our widgets. Even when there is no oil, we still will have, what, 10 years of LPG and 100 years of coal left. How we transport these energy sources to their point of use could be problematic. Wind and solar aren't very effective. Biodiesel works for me, but won't make a significant difference nationwide. No worries, we will still be able to watch reality TV long after we have quit driving.


Have you ever experienced a power outage due to lightning that took out at transformer, or wind that blew the powerlines down? How do you think the repair crews get to the lines?

In the case of the high tension lines (those tall steel towers) helicopters are needed to maintain the lines. The power company cannot turn the power off every time they need to work on them, and still supply reliable electricity. So, to work on the lines, the workers need to be charged to the same potential as the lines with no path to ground. Helicopters are the best means to do this. Hot air ballons drift too much.

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Unread postby highlander » Thu 26 May 2005, 18:01:29

ArimoDave:
One of the worst feelings you can have is standing on your roof with a water hose during a forest fire....and the power goes out! A 7K generator soon fits nicely in your budget. But your point is well taken, the cost of utilities will increase due to maintenance, etc.
Do you have enough wind in your part of ID to justify a small wind generator? I haven't, not have I a creek for microhydro. I could do solar part of the year, but winters are dark and cold and that is when you really need the power. that leaves me on the grid and likely to burn wood in the winter.
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Unread postby cat » Thu 26 May 2005, 18:38:40

I'm new at this so maybe I am missing something. But, if we use start using natural gas and coal to supplement our dwindling oil supply won't that effect their depletion rates? Aren't natural gas (10 years) and coal (100 years) rates based upon current use with the inclusion of oil?
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Re: Hydrocarbon Depletion & the Myth of Alternatives

Unread postby johnmarkos » Thu 26 May 2005, 20:06:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', 'I') think any successful future scenario presupposes that America (and the developed world as a whole) will kick the car addiction


Realising that means everyone will need to move to the city or near mass transit hub....so, no living in the country unless you're self-sufficient or have alternate transportation (home biodeisel plant, horse and buggy, bicycle truck, or suchlike).

Right. In the future, if you're a small farmer, you can probably run your truck and your tractors on biodiesel (or very expensive dino-diesel, for a while). But no more exurban bedroom communities. The suburbs will either become real towns or they will become ghost towns. It's city/town life or food-producing country life. Make your choice.
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Re: Hydrocarbon Depletion & the Myth of Alternatives

Unread postby johnmarkos » Thu 26 May 2005, 20:10:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', 'I')t's city/town life or food-producing country life. Make your choice.

Of course, the rich can afford to make more than one choice. The rest of us choose once and live with the consequences.
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Unread postby Ludi » Thu 26 May 2005, 20:38:38

It'll be "shanks mare" or a bicycle for me, probably....nearest town (er, microtown) is 2 miles away, second nearest is 4 miles away....
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Re: Hydrocarbon Depletion & the Myth of Alternatives

Unread postby JohnDenver » Thu 26 May 2005, 21:18:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heyhoser', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')I think T. Boone Pickens has the right idea. Convert power grids from gas to nuclear, and use freed up natural gas as transport fuel.


Sounds great. Do we switch our power grids to nuclear now or should we wait ten to fifteen years when they're actually built?


It's a long-term process, and doesn't need to be done immediately because gas and oil are still very cheap. A lot also depends on where you live. If you live in France or Lithuania, for instance, the power grid has already been switched over.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heyhoser', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil is about energy becoming much more expensive, not less available, at least in the short term.

That's a good thing insofar as it bankrupts the private motorist. Transport fuels need to be expensive enough to cause reversal of the national automobile slum, which is the primary cause of the problem in the first place.


Derh? I'm sorry, I think I misunderstand. If transport fuels are more expensive, then the national automobile slum will be reversed...and become profitable again? Meaning we'll all be buying more new cars and driving more, pumping more money into the transport industry and taking away from other industries? Or? I just don't understand what it is you're trying to say.

I'm saying that the main cause of expensive oil for all citizens of the world is not a scarcity of oil. It is the horde of American nitwits insisting on sprawl as a way of life. High oil prices are a good thing if they can inflict some pain on the American motorist.

It's like some guy who insists on living as far as possible away from everything, and then gets hysterical about how the oil industry is going to supply his so-called "need" for fuel. It's not a real need. The guy needs to get up off his fat ass, and move. Private motoring is a luxury, not a necessity.
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Unread postby johnmarkos » Thu 26 May 2005, 21:34:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'S')low & steady depletion probably means life will become a Norman Rockwell painting.

Fast & turbulent decline... pick your nightmare... you won't be wrong.


Considering the huge stakes, the size of both risks and rewards, the global decline may indeed be slow and steady, MRE notwithstanding.

Although individual provinces may decline suddenly like Oman, the global depletion picture could still be slow and steady. Of course for the producers, it won't feel slow and steady. They'll be scrambling to produce 97% or 98% of what they produced last year.

Hubbert would probably be somewhat surprised to learn that U.S. production is over 5 Mb/day in 2005.
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Unread postby aahala » Thu 26 May 2005, 21:40:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cat', 'I')'m new at this so maybe I am missing something. But, if we use start using natural gas and coal to supplement our dwindling oil supply won't that effect their depletion rates? Aren't natural gas (10 years) and coal (100 years) rates based upon current use with the inclusion of oil?


Yes. If the US response to declining oil is primarily to switch, rather
than reduce energy consumption, NG may become the twin of peakoil
within a few years--the economic consequences of two major energy
sources declining at once could be 3 or 4 times as bad as just one.
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 May 2005, 23:27:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cat', 'I')'m new at this so maybe I am missing something. But, if we use start using natural gas and coal to supplement our dwindling oil supply won't that effect their depletion rates? Aren't natural gas (10 years) and coal (100 years) rates based upon current use with the inclusion of oil?


And that's if natural gas can be made available in North America. This paper details the challenge.

The Critical Need to Examine More Carefully
The Role of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
In Meeting Future U.S. Energy Needs
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ndeed, one of the greatest risks of the current U.S. strategy of “hoping that LNG will solve our problems” is the near-certainty that what will occur instead is that, even in a “best case” scenario in which many new LNG projects ultimately are completed (to the extent that is a desirable result) there nonetheless will be a massive natural gas supply deficit in the U.S. market during the period between 2008 and 2012.

Link
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Thu 26 May 2005, 23:38:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
And that's if natural gas can be made available in North America. This paper details the challenge.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ndeed, one of the greatest risks of the current U.S. strategy of “hoping that LNG will solve our problems” is the near-certainty that what will occur instead is that, even in a “best case” scenario in which many new LNG projects ultimately are completed (to the extent that is a desirable result) there nonetheless will be a massive natural gas supply deficit in the U.S. market during the period between 2008 and 2012.


Well, if that happens, we can all shed a tear over those poor Americans. It isn't going to be much of a crisis for anybody else though.
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 May 2005, 23:53:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
And that's if natural gas can be made available in North America. This paper details the challenge.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ndeed, one of the greatest risks of the current U.S. strategy of “hoping that LNG will solve our problems” is the near-certainty that what will occur instead is that, even in a “best case” scenario in which many new LNG projects ultimately are completed (to the extent that is a desirable result) there nonetheless will be a massive natural gas supply deficit in the U.S. market during the period between 2008 and 2012.


Well, if that happens, we can all shed a tear over those poor Americans. It isn't going to be much of a crisis for anybody else though.


In less than ten minutes you read a 31 page indepth paper? 8) John, I'll bet you didn't even look at it, yet you have the gall to post such a trite remark.
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Fri 27 May 2005, 00:01:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')n less than ten minutes you read a 31 page indepth paper? 8) John, I'll bet you didn't even look at it, yet you have the gall to post such a trite remark.


What's trite about it? I'm accepting the conclusions of the paper at face value. There's going to be a horrible shortage of natural gas in the U.S. for 4 years. Why should anybody who's not an American give a crap? Do the Americans worry about energy shortages in other people's countries?
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 27 May 2005, 00:02:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')n less than ten minutes you read a 31 page indepth paper? 8) John, I'll bet you didn't even look at it, yet you have the gall to post such a trite remark.


What's trite about it? I'm accepting the conclusions of the paper at face value. There's going to be a horrible shortage of natural gas in the U.S. for 4 years. Why should anybody who's not an American give a crap? Do the Americans worry about energy shortages in other people's countries?


"When America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold."
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Unread postby RdSnt » Fri 27 May 2005, 08:40:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')n less than ten minutes you read a 31 page indepth paper? 8) John, I'll bet you didn't even look at it, yet you have the gall to post such a trite remark.


What's trite about it? I'm accepting the conclusions of the paper at face value. There's going to be a horrible shortage of natural gas in the U.S. for 4 years. Why should anybody who's not an American give a crap? Do the Americans worry about energy shortages in other people's countries?


"When America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold."


Yes indeed, but a cold lasts 7 days and so the rest of the world will recover and move on. The US wil die of pnuemonia or lead poisoning.
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Unread postby Doly » Fri 27 May 2005, 08:48:26

You are missing the big picture here. Colin Campbell predicts peak gas for 2012.
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