by Outcast_Searcher » Sun 28 Aug 2011, 22:29:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', '
')Since there has been a 26% decrease in crude prices in the past few months, demand should
have changed substantially. Has it?
peeker01, I seem to see quite a few quotes from you over time on this subject of demand vs. price change (like this one) that implies that you believe that price should consistently reflect actual (short term) demand.
This just absolutely, clearly, isn't so, for several reasons.
First, microeconomic theory allows for inelastic demand. This means that the actual customer demand doesn't change much, even though the price might change a lot. This is clearly true for gasoline in the U.S., especially in rural areas where easy alternatives (like mass transit) simply DO NOT exist. Or even in major metropolitan areas where the avaialble mass transit systems are close to maxed out (Washington DC at rush hour comes to mind as an example).
Second, as folks have repeatedly explained in various threads on this subject -- it is NOT just about the current situation. It is about a LONG RANGE supply/demand bet on the GLOBAL situation. Folks look at the PROSPECTS for sustained (or average projected) global economic growth.
Knowing (or at least believing) that the production capacity for global crude oil is constrained -- higher projected global demand implies relative SCARCITY. This scarcity, coupled with the available dollars and more demand from a stronger global economy implies oil prices could go MUCH higher as (more available) money chases the available oil.
Clearly, if the prospects look bleak for the global economy over time, you will have just the opposite effect.
Third, the thing that is important to note, is that the effects get magnified by both actual demand for oil AND the available free dollars to bid for the oil, based on the net global economic activity. That's why it's not linear -- or even close to linear in the short run.
Fourth, add to that the fact that MUCH of economic theory isn't really "science" -- you can't place societies in boxes and do controlled, repeated experiments on them where you only change ONE economic variable, and prove/disprove the results. So, it's a soft science at best, and a religion or speculation at worse. Thus (IMO) you also tend to have a lot of under or overshoot in the short term, as fear or greed comes into play, sometimes trumping "rational" economic analysis, especially in the SHORT RUN.
However, NONE OF THIS implies a conspiracy of rich people any more than the incompetence displayed by some US governmental agencies on or near 9/11/2001 implies a "911-government-conspracy" -- (though there are certainly those on this site who will vehemently disagree with that opinion). After all, the US governmental agencies, as a whole, display MASSIVE amounts of incompetence and corruption, overall, virtually every year. If you doubt this, watch CSPAN's coverage of crisis investigations for a while...
So, feel free to continue quoting such short term meaningless statistics all you want, but all this is doing is showing people with some formal (or self-tuaght) education in micro-economics that you don't understand basic required economic principles like demand inelasticity, or that markets make forecasts when they price commodities.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.