[OilsNotWell]

another coincidence

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')remier orders quarantine procedures stepped up

2005/5/26
The China Post staff


Premier Frank Hsieh yesterday ordered government agencies to step up quarantine procedures in harbors and airports all over Taiwan, following reports of an outbreak of foot and mouth (F&M) disease in China.

Council of Agriculture Minister Lee Ching-lung told a Cabinet meeting that there were reported outbreaks of the cattle and hog disease in China's Jiangsu and Shandong Provinces

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/deta ... 2924&GRP=B

[OilsNotWell]

Global Task Force Is Needed to Prepare for Bird Flu
Bloomberg

some of the latest news is on this blog:

The Coming Influenza Pandemic

[OilsNotWell]

Guardian Unlimited Special Report

Flying Dutchman mans the species barrier

A dynamic professor dubbed the virus hunter believes that bird flu is the greatest threat to mankind. He tells Mark Honigsbaum how the world should fight back

Guardian Article



Guardian Special Report

[OilsNotWell]

Fringe stuff:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hatever is Coming

I mentioned yesterday that a large number of people including Cliff at HalfPastHuman.com and I have been feeling quite "uneasy" like there is something BIG coming, but we can't put our finger on just what it is yet. Still, with the latest data runs from ALTA 905 talking about "something out of the blue" we decided to start slicing up reader responses to see what "IT" might be...

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

[OilsNotWell]

Again, this better not be a hoax. Dr. Niman makes the following comments:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he above list of 121 deaths and 79 infections in the Qinghai Lake area clearly meets the WHO definition of clusters of unexplained deaths. It would seem that more than a few phone calls and letters to Beijing is in order.

The previously reported 121 H5N1 infections now appear to be 121 deaths, with 11 confirmed as H5N1. In any event, independent verification should be a top priority.

Since there has now been a news blackout imposed, it is clearly time for some boots on the ground, so to speak, to investigate the situation. There are also reports of bodies being cremated.

If the above list remotely resembles reality of H5N1 infections and deaths, the final phase 6 of the 2005 bird flu pandemic has clearly begun.

Recombinomics

[OilsNotWell]

More comments from Dr. Niman:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he report above would seem to indicate a news blackout of some sort was in place for Qinghai province. The sequence of events is cause for significant concern. Initial reports of dead geese at the Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve indicated that 178 bar headed geese had died, but not of bird flu. Recent media reports indicated that the dead geese were H5N1 positive and the OIE report of May 21 indicated there were 519 dead waterfowl involving five species, including the bar-headed geese.

Official comments from China indicated the 519 deaths were isolated and there were no deaths in farm birds or people. Promed then carried a report indicating 6 people had died and the Chinese language report indicated they were tourists and the names and point of origin of 4 fatalities were given.

This May 22 report was followed by a May 24 report indicating the number dead was 121 and a news blackout was being imposed. The number of dead (121 in total) and infected (79 in total) at 18 different locations was listed and a news embargo was again mentioned.

The report above also mentions a news embargo.

However, WHO contacted China by phone and letter and was assured that there were no human cases.

It is unclear why there is a news embargo if there are no additional cases beyond the 519 reported to OIE

Clearly the news embargo on a potential worldwide pandemic is inappropriate. The reservoir is within the intersection of the East Asia and Central South Asia flyways which cover virtually all of Asia. Some of the geese winter in India and stop at the reservoir in route to nest spots in Russia.

Surveillance of waterfowl in India and Russia is an urgent priority as is firsthand knowledge of the reported 121 H5N1 fatalities, including reports of cremation of victims.

WHO phone calls and letters are far from satisfactory.

Recombinomics

[OilsNotWell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ird flu could cause 'global economic disaster'
By Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent of The Times

The world is unprepared for an influenza pandemic that would infect more than a billion people and trigger global economic disaster, leading scientists warn today

[URL=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1627479,00.html]UKTimesOnline[/URL

"The arrival of pandemic flu will trigger a reaction that will change the world overnight," Dr Osterholm said. "There will be an immediate response from leaders to stop the virus entering their countries by greatly reducing and even ending foreign travel and trade, as was seen in parts of Asia in response to Sars ... Global, national and regional economies will come to an abrupt halt.

"A purely national approach fails to consider the nature of the modern world, a world of globally distributed, just-in-time inventories for almost all consumer products, including medical supplies."

[OilsNotWell]

Oh, and those canine deaths have now been determined to be influenza A (H3)....this is 'novel'...that means completely new.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')NEXPLAINED DEATHS, CANINES - USA (MULTISTATE)(04)
**************************************************
A ProMED-mail posting
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail, a program of the
International Society finfectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

Date: 24 May 2005
From: Julie Levy <LevyJ@mail.vetmed.ufl.edu>

Dr. Crawford will be presenting a poster on outbreaks of the newly
recognized canine influenza virus at next week's ACVIM meeting in
Baltimore....
....
Based on virus isolation from lungs, viral antigens in lung tissues, and
seroconversion data, we conclude that the novel canine influenza virus was
the etiological agent responsible for the January and June 2004 respiratory
disease outbreaks in racing greyhounds. This represents the 1st report of
influenza virus associated with respiratory disease in dogs.

ProMed-Mail

[OilsNotWell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]No human infection of avian flu in Qinghai: official
(Agencies)
Updated: 2005-05-26 14:31

No human infection of avian flu or unexplained pneumonia case has been detected in northwest China's Qinghai Province and health departments are going all out to prevent a possible outbreak of bird flu, according to a local health official.
...

Health departments in the provincial capital Xining and at least four prefectures have been mobilized. They have stepped up infectious disease control and prevention by closely monitoring and screening all pneumonia and flu-like cases among human beings,fowls and livestock, Ai told Xinhua in an interview Wednesday.
...
Ai said hospitals in Gangca County, where the avian flu cases were reported, have opened up a separate outpatient department forfeverish patients alone. "The county's health department, meanwhile, is assisting the provincial disease control and prevention center in medical observations of people who had had close contacts with the birds," he added.
...
Ai said his department is also helping local animal husbandry departments to sterilize the infected areas and properly dispose of birds' droppings.
...
"All hospitals have been told to set up a task force and put aside medication and facilities for the treatment of any avian flucases that might be detected," he said.
...
Qinghai Province took emergency measures by closing off some scenic spots to prevent people and poultry from contacting wild birds. Quarantine measures have also been adopted.
....
ChinaDaiily

[gg3]

I just forwarded those Guardian links to my brother, thinking of family preparedness issues.

Yep, we'll find out soon enough, whether that's weeks or months, either way this looks like a nasty storm on the horizon.

At this point I'm thinking of the following in terms of preparedness:

1) Keep a month's worth of food & supplies on hand, a prudent amount of money in cash, and a full tank of gas. In that regard it's not much different from normal preparedness for storms and other natural disasters.

2) Self-quarantine immediately at the first sign of bird flu in the area. That means stay home from work, school, etc., avoid all crowded places, basically stay in your house and don't go out. According to an article in Scientific American a couple of months ago, population quarantines during the first days of an outbreak can make a very major difference in terms of infection and death rates. In fact that article said that early quarantine is the best way to control a pandemic.

3) If you need to do resupply runs, avoid crowds by doing them when the supermarkets first open in the morning, or do them late at night. Don't use public or communal laundromats (wash your clothes by hand in the sink if you don't have a washer), don't use public bathrooms, don't use public transport (sorry folks, cars are useful after all!), do wash your hands early and often.

4) I would suggest getting a corded (not-cordless) telephone and a 25 foot line-cord (from the phone to the wall socket), so you have a phone you can use for lengthy conversations (while you're cooped up at home) without worrying about the battery running out. These phones should have no batteries and no wall-wart transformer that plugs into the AC mains. These will also work during power failures, so they're good to have for general emergency preparedness. However, do not ever talk on a corded phone during a lightning storm, even a lightning strike 5 miles away can kill you.

5) Reading materials. Stuff to keep yourself busy with while you're cooped up at home. Board games, etc.

6) For couples: stock up on condoms and other contraceptives. Seriously.

[Triffin]

One more for your list

7) Buy a supply of TamiFlu made by Hoffman LaRoche ..

FYI .. Dr. Henry Niman posts to this board frequently ..

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject. ... ctid=53829

Triff ..

[Doly]

It isn't really doable for many people to stay at home and not go to work, unless you claim to be sick. And how long do you suggest that people stay put?

[Triffin]

Not saying it's going to happen but ..
With a projected 60% mortality rate ..

If I've got the choice of going to work
and exposure or staying home and survival ..

I'll stay home, thank you .. 3-6 months if necessary ..

Triff ..

[tmazanec1]

Even if 2005-2006 is just as bad as 1918-1919 it could be enough to pop the housing bubble and tumble the house of cards which is the American economy.

[OilsNotWell]

Still trying to find corroboration for those reports of at least 121 deaths out of China...

Scary Headline Here:

WHO: Bird Flu Pandemic Imminent
National Ledger

Effect Measure is incredulous about the official Chinese denials, as am I:

Effect Measure

Dr. Niman is close to calling it, if those reports are true:

Final Phase 6 Bird Flu Pandemic in Qinghai China?

along with these other headlines he posted:

Bird Flu Case Fatality Rates Exceed 60% in Qinghai China?

Human Bird Flu Denials for Qinghai China Require More Detail

And yet, here's the reaction of the neighboring island of Kinmen, aka Chinmen, part of an Arhicpelago that is part of Taiwan:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')INMEN COAST GUARD STEPS UP PATROLS AGAINST DISEASE FROM CHINA
2005/05/26 21:57:44

Kinmen, May 26 (CNA) Coast guard authorities on Kinmen have stepped up patrol and surveillance efforts against smuggling in the waters and on the beaches around Kinmen, following reports of outbreaks of foot and mouth disease (FMD) and bird flu in China. The outlying island of Kinmen, which is just a stone's throw from the Chinese coast, is particularly vulnerable to China-originating infectious diseases as the island has been flooded with Chinese goods and products since the Republic of China government initiated direct trade, postal and shipping links between the ROC-held islands of Kinmen and Matsu and the port cities of Fuzhou and Xiamen in China's Fujian Province in January 2001, known as the "mini three links." Law enforcement forces on Kinmen have stepped up patrols since FMD outbreaks were reported in Jiangsu and Shangdong provinces as well as Beijing, while bird flu cases were reported in Qinghai Province. The patrol and surveillance efforts are particularly intensive in areas near Kinmen's northern coasts, where petty trade carried out on the beach is rife, coast guard authorities said. All smuggled goods must first be sterilized once they are spotted, while officials from the Kinmen station of the Bureau of Animal and Plant Inspection and Quarantine under the Council of Agriculture will be called in when livestock products are apprehended, the coast guard authorities said. Meanwhile, the authorities said, all personnel aboard coastal patrol boats will be told to wear protective gear when boarding apprehended Chinese vessels intruding into ROC waters. In addition to intensifying surveillance, the Kinmen law enforcement authorities also called on Kinmen people to refrain from buying or consuming smuggled goods and products from China. FMD is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hooved animals such as cattle and hogs. (By K.Y. Ni and Deborah Kuo) ENDITEM/J 

http://english.www.gov.tw/index.jsp?act ... naid=10095

[threadbear]

Oilsnotwell, Your work on this issue and supporting links are outstanding. Thanks for that. I found this and thought you might find it interesting. It's an interview with a purported researcher for a vaccine pharmaceutical (or however you spell it ) company who has some interesting thoughts on disease transmission.


Interview excerpt:

Q: For example, the SV40 monkey virus slips into the polio vaccine.

A: Well yes, that happened. But that's not what I mean. The SV40 got
into the polio vaccine because the vaccine was made by using monkey kidneys.
But I'm talking about something else. The actual lab conditions. The
mistakes. The careless errors. SV40, which was later found in cancer
tumors -- that was what I would call a structural problem. It was an
accepted part of the manufacturing process. If you use monkey kidneys, you
open the door to germs which you don't know are in those kidneys.

Q: Okay, but let's ignore that distinction between different types of
contaminants for a moment. What contaminants did you find in your many
years of work with vaccines?

A: All right. I'll give you some of what I came across, and I'll also
give you what colleagues of mine found. Here's a partial list. In the
Rimavex measles vaccine, we found various chicken viruses. In polio
vaccine, we found acanthamoeba, which is a so-called "brain-eating

http://www.whale.to/v/rapp.html

[OilsNotWell]

The Chinese authorities caught lying and denying and delaying AGAIN...

China admits more deaths among birds

We MEAN it this time! REALLY!

The thing is, lots of these birds are basically transcontinental travelers....
China could do little more than react to the deaths of 500 birds, and by then, it's too late...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he statement by China's Ministry of Agriculture that the Qinghai bird flu in migrating geese "has so far proven to be an isolated case" can't even be taken at face value.

You've got over 500 dead bird of five different species on a flyway that extends from New Zealand to Siberia, and every one of the infected migratory birds just decides to plop down on the same quarter square kilometer island to die?

We note that China also practices vaccination, which allows birds to be infected but not sicken. Vaccinated birds shed significantly less virus but may still be infectious. So the notion that the problem was isolated and is over with is not very credible. I'm trying to say it nicely.

Meanwhile there are cryptic and unconfirmed reports suggesting there might be human deaths from an unknown cause in Qinghai. Chinese authorities in the provincial capital of Xining (via XinhuaNet) are denying any human infection or unexplained deaths from pneumonia:

[OilsNotWell]

Threadbare-

Thanks for the link! Fascinating and disturbing.

[alexis]

Does anyone who has a clear picture of the information available about the epidemic want to briefly resume what the consequences of the situation might be ?

Oilisnotwell : you talk about the titanic ? Are you foreseeing a major die-off ? If so, why would that flu be so lethal ?

Thanks in advance,

[OilsNotWell]

The story of human deaths in China may have "legs"...many racing to corroborate...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')laims of human bird flu cases in China denied
19:28 26 May 2005
NewScientist.com news service
Debora MacKenzie

Bird flu special report, New Scientist

Chinese officials have denied media reports that H5N1 bird flu has killed more than a 100 people in the west of the country.

A web-based Chinese-language news service called Boxun (Abundant News), which allows correspondents to freely post information on its site, reported on 25 May that 121 people in 18 villages in the sparsely-settled western province of Qinghai have died of bird flu, and more are ill. Some 1300 people, have been isolated, it reports.

But on Thursday the official Xinhua news agency denied any human infections with H5N1 bird flu in the region. No unexplained pneumonia or flu among people who had contact with birds that carried H5N1 has been reported, it says. An expert team was dispatched to Qinghai soon after the strain was confirmed in wild geese at a nature reserve – a development reported earlier this week.

Xinhua says local authorities have “stepped up infectious disease control” by “closely monitoring and screening all pneumonia and flu-like cases among humans, fowl and livestock”.

“Forbidden talk”
The media reports are said to have come from nine correspondents in Qinhai, who report that people connected to the cases have been forbidden to talk to outsiders. Boxun cautions that the reports cannot be independently verified, but says it hopes by drawing attention to them they can be further investigated.

The reports say that sick people in the border region between Qinghai and the neighbouring, impoverished province of Gansu had visited the nature reserve where the birds were found. But they also report that there have been large scale outbreaks of unexplained deaths among livestock in the area.

China has never reported any human cases of H5N1. These have so far been reported only in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. Scientists believe this may be due to a small genetic variation in the virus that has circulated there among domestic poultry.

China did report 50 outbreaks of H5N1 in domestic poultry right across China in 2004, from Guangdong in the southeast to Tibet in the far west. The sparseness of the reported outbreaks over such a wide region has led some scientists to fear that the virus is present in many more places.

Outbreaks may either not have been reported, or the virus may has circulated undetected due to the widespread vaccination of poultry against H5N1. In the past, the Chinese authorities denied that there were cases of SARS in Beijing when it later transpired there had been

New Scientist