[Pops]

Has this been posted and I missed it?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. will slash its estimate of undiscovered Marcellus Shale natural gas by as much as 80 percent after a updated assessment by government geologists.
The formation, which stretches from New York to Tennessee, contains about 84 trillion cubic feet of gas, the U.S. Geological Survey said today in its first update in nine years. That supersedes an Energy Department projection of 410 trillion cubic feet, said Philip Budzik, an operations research analyst with the Energy Information Administration.

[dinopello]

From the article:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��One fifth of a big number is still a big number,” Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners LLC, a Washington-based policy analysis firm

[MD]

And the easiest half will be the first half... a small fact so often ignored.

[peeker01]

Speaking of 100 year forecasts.........remember the 10 years of oil we had left in 1973?

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'F')rom the article:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��One fifth of a big number is still a big number,” Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners LLC, a Washington-based policy analysis firm

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'H')as this been posted and I missed it?

[kiwichick]

80% REDUCTION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OUCH!!!!!!!


so much for gas saving the world

[peeker01]

Two thousand feet below the Marcellus is the Utica Shale, and it might eclipse the Marcellus.
Don't bet against American drilling technology.

http://geology.com/articles/utica-shale/

[Daniel_Plainview]

Earlier this year, Alaska's untapped oil reserve estimates were slashed by 90%. Now, Marcellus' estimated shale gas reserves are slashed by 80%.

What happened to our beloved "abundance" and cornucopian Horn-of-plenty?

It's a good thing that we've got plenty more money to print so that we can afford to import more oil and gas.

This will not end well.

[peeker01]

Fact is, who cares what this administration says about anything? Exxon has a huge find in
the gulf of mexico. Rather than downgrade the quantity of the discovery, they are just
going to steal it from them. Makes sense to me.

http://www.chron.com/business/steffy/ar ... 138230.php

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'S')peaking of 100 year forecasts.........remember the 10 years of oil we had left in 1973?

[kiwichick]

gom find could be the largest since thunder horse

could be

isn't thunder horse already in decline

[peeker01]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'S')peaking of 100 year forecasts.........remember the 10 years of oil we had left in 1973?

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'S')peaking of 100 year forecasts.........remember the 10 years of oil we had left in 1973?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', 'E')arlier this year, Alaska's untapped oil reserve estimates were slashed by 90%. Now, Marcellus' estimated shale gas reserves are slashed by 80%.

What happened to our beloved "abundance" and cornucopian Horn-of-plenty?

It's a good thing that we've got plenty more money to print so that we can afford to import more oil and gas.

This will not end well.

[ROCKMAN]

Not that I'm as enthusiastic as my cousin copious but he makes the critical point: how much reserves anyone estimates isn't very relevant IMHO. The bottom line: how much is being produced today. Future production estimates, higher or lower, don't feed the kitty. The kitty is hungry today and that's what really matters. LOL.

[copious.abundance]

America's Most Incredible Natural Gas Play Has Only Just Begun To Boom
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince 2009, natural gas production out of the Pennsylvania-centered Marcellus shale play has soared 650%. Today, daily new-well gas output from the region totals 7.5 million cubic feet — making it the largest or second-largest unconventional gas play in the world, depending on who's counting.

A new report argues the Marcellus has only just begun to boom, though.

Wood MacKenzie, an energy consultancy, forecasts that there remains up to $90 billion-worth of recoverable gas reserves in the play. The agency raised its estimate of 2020 output to 20 billion cubic feet equivalent per day from 14 billion bcfed, and that the Marcellus will soon account for nearly 25% of total U.S. shale gas supply.

[...]

[KingM]

[jedrider]

What better way to attract investment than to hype the amount of the potential deposits. If NOT for this exaggerations, we would [probably] already be in decline. No?

[ROCKMAN]

Jed - The vast majority of the capex spent in the Marcellus (and all the other shale plays) is being spent by public companies and not coming from private investors. Of course the pubcos are motivated to keep their stock prices up by hyping any play they're working.

And just so folks aren't confused: the amount of NG that will be recovered from the Marcellus (at a certain price) hasn't changed. What has changed are the various predictions. And more to the point: those predictions, as well as the actual amount, aren't terribly relevant IMHO. What is relevant is the FACT that the M is currently producing about 5.5 TCF/year. And doing so at a relatively low price which is very relevant to the consumers. And how profitable/unprofitable are the companies drilling the M? I don't know but again that's not relevant to 98.6% of Americans.

Will production levels hold? Increase? Decrease? I don't know...nor does anyone else. Of course that doesn't mean folks won't make such predictions. But how important is knowing that? Is anyone here or in the country going to change their activities based on how much NG is coming our of the M in 3 years? How about 8 years? How about 20 years? What changes the habits of folks (and economies) is the price of fossil fuels.There seems to be an obsession with predicting such numbers that I honestly don't understand. What virtually everyone in the country, including the oil patch, cares about is the price of oil and NG in the future. And that depends on much more the production rates. And depends very little on URR from any trend.

Just another late night rabbling while I'm waiting to catch another log run. LOL.