[John_A]

Nice graph. I am surprised they haven't shut it off already! Half million barrels a day sure isn't much in the greater scheme of things, and neither was a million a few years back. Surely the EROEI of this oil has already deteriorated enough that the entire field should be shut down, and the last worker out turns out the lights?

[Hawkcreek]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') don't believe you have revealed a revelation.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', 'I')n fact, I should have not bothered to post it - sorry bout that.

[PeakOiler]

Today I downloaded the Excel file from the EIA for the North Slope Alaskan oil production. I created a graph from Jan 2000 to March 2011. Then I added a trendline as well as adding a line for the 300 k barrels/day which is about what the minimum flow rate the trans-Alaskan pipeline is rated. Looks like between 2017 and 2018 is when the flow may reach that point assuming the near linear production decline since 2000. Kinda scary.



Below 300 k/day, the ice and wax buildup in the pipe will certainly be troublesome.

[PeakOiler]

I made two more graphs from the EIA data. The trendline for Jan 2001 to Present (March 2011) had an even greater slope, indicating a flow of ca. 300 kb/day in late 2016. Plotting the Jan 2002 to Present (March 2011) data had an even greater slope, indicating a crossover point in early 2016...

Stay tuned...

[Bill Hicks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'I') made two more graphs from the EIA data. The trendline for Jan 2001 to Present (March 2011) had an even greater slope, indicating a flow of ca. 300 kb/day in late 2016. Plotting the Jan 2002 to Present (March 2011) data had an even greater slope, indicating a crossover point in early 2016...

Stay tuned...

[dolanbaker]

Would they not just "store and forward" oil when it's no longer possible to have a continous flow.
By that I mean build extra storage tanks and pump the oil flat out for one or two days a week or only in the summer.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'W')ould they not just "store and forward" oil when it's no longer possible to have a continous flow.
By that I mean build extra storage tanks and pump the oil flat out for one or two days a week or only in the summer.

[peeker01]

Open ANWAR to exploration, and you will see that pipe full again. Have you been there?
I have. It's beautiful, but it is a vast wasteland. A couple hundred oil wells won't change a
thing.

[PeakOiler]

I'm sure someone will post the announcement here at po.com when the ANWR is open for drilling.

Until then, below are the other two graphs I made from the EIA data:





Truncating the data any more would not be as accurate since the population is less for the data set.

As the EIA releases new data on the N. Slope Oil production, updated graphs could be made.

Stayed tuned...

[Hawkcreek]

I liked the graphs, but they leave me even more puzzled about the future plans of the oil companies on the Slope. I know for a fact that BP is spending hundreds of millions, with a 10 year plans of spending billions, to upgrade the safety systems in the various facilities in Prudhoe.
If they thought an oil shutdown or severe slowdown was coming in 5 or even 10 years, it would only be logical to spend only the minimum in putting bandaids on the existing systems - rather than entire replacement systems for some areas.
I don't know where any future oil increase is coming from in the next 5 years or so, but I also don't believe these big guys don't have a plan for what they are doing. Maybe they have a lot of hidden reserves (which I really doubt), or they could be planning on converting the pipeline into a gas line as another poster suggested ---- but I think they have some vision which requires a major investment in keeping the North Slope facilities functional.
Any ideas?

[seahorse3]

Is it time to sell the BPT stock?

[PeakOiler]

Today I saw that po.com posted an article from TOD
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8294
concerning the TAPS from N. Alaska. Some interesting and good information are in that article. One point I noted was when the flow rate might reach 350 kb/day:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nder current conditions and without additional well development and a significant increase in oil flow, the data would suggest that the critical date will happen sooner than even this report has suggested. (Which would be when the flow falls below 350 kbd sometime around 2020).

[TheDude]

Thanks for the info, all. Shouldn't the troughs dipping below 300 kb/d be what we're worried about? The worst of those are related to shutdowns but if those entail such a huge buildup of waxes with oil freezing you'd be out of luck anyway, far in advance of the mean of the flow going below MOL. Apparently in mid-winter you only have 9 days to fire the thing back up.

Conoco Phillips is attempting to get permission for a line in NPR-A to the Colville Delta - they've been working on the permit for 6 years?!??!? Conoco Alaska Pipeline to Spur Demand for Oil Leases, U.S. Says - Bloomberg Stuff like that doesn't help matters.

[PeakOiler]

Those troughs or dips indicate maintenance, or like just last year, indicate minor oil spills and necessary repairs. They will become more frequent as the flow rate decreases. The slope of the trendline will become even more negative.

If they open up more of the Alaskan arctic coastal waters or the ANWR to drilling, then problem solved, right? /sarcasm

Alaska's Aleutian Islands have the highest winds in the US, right? Why doesn't Alaska invest in more wind energy, make hydrogen and put that in a pipeline?

Sorry, I had a cornucopian thought there for a moment. Never mind...

[Hawkcreek]

I still think they should just play the oil card until the easy money is gone, and then build a huge fertilizer plant on the Slope to use up the natural gas that is landlocked unless they build a new 40 billion dollar pipeline. With the coast ice free more and more of the time, the fertilizer could be stockpiled for summer shipping.
There is a lot of speculation up here in Prudhoe, but everyone agrees that the big guys have some kind of plan in their back pocket. There are a lot of smart people building long term plans and spending hundreds of millions of dollars on upgrades, and none of them make sense if the oil is gone in 10 years.
Go short on fertilizer if you hear about one of the large engineering firms working on a mega plant for a cold environment.

[TheDude]

Some of the NG will be liquified and trucked south, deliveries to Fairbanks begin Q1 2014: Golden Valley Electric Association, Flint Hills Resources Alaska Exploring North Slope LNG Facility | EON: Enhanced Online News. EIA mulled over options for gas here: EIA - Bringing Alaska North Slope Natural Gas to Market. How about an in-state gas line? Fairbanks Daily News-Miner - entry In state gas line prompts dozens of good questions. "Alaska Stand Alone Pipeline" = "ASAP." Har har har.

[dorlomin]

It is possible we may see a return to SS Manhattan type ice breaking tankers to replace TAPS. Given there is likely to be other new developments in the high Arctic their is a potential market for them that may be cheaper than various schemes to keep the pipeline open.

[PeakOiler]

Added the latest two data points to the graph:



The decline is right on track...