[Cog]

With WTI being above $95/bbl and Brent up above $110/bbl much of the year, I'm wondering if we aren't narrowing in at what price of oil energy stops the US from growing and tip back into recession. Given that first quarter GDP has been revised down to 0.4% and the second quarter GDP of 1.3%(to be revised downward most likely), we might have the magic number at which growth, at least from an American perspective stops.

I can't seem to find the average price YTD for Brent and WTI. Anyone know of a source for this info?

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '
')I can't seem to find the average price YTD for Brent and WTI. Anyone know of a source for this info?

[Cog]

ok thanks. I'm looking at it now.

[PeakOiler]

I just downloaded the spreadsheet from EIA

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm

and calculated the 2011 averages. I got $97.50 for WTI and $111.90 for Brent through 9-August.

[Cog]

Thanks. I try to keep track of GDP, food stamp usage, and oil price to see if I can find some positive correlations between them. I'm not an economist, I just play one on the internet.

[SeaGypsy]

Update for september?

[PeakOiler]

As of August 30, the last reported date from the EIA, basil_hayden was still in first, TheAntiDoomer was second, and SeaGypsy was # 3.

I'll post another scorecard later this week after the EIA releases their report Thursday.

I'm beginning to think we may see a new low price for the year the way the economy is crumbling...

On the other hand, the way the firefighting efforts and hurricane/tropical storms relief efforts are going, the federal and state demand for fuels is still strong which may be supporting prices.

[basil_hayden]

Wear it!

[SeaGypsy]

My bold prediction is that oil is about to do something novel. I predict we will see oil as a hedge to an unprecedented extent.
Classicly if the Euro does collapse we should expect a new low similar to the 08 demand destruction cycle. However I believe something fundamental has changed since actual liquids peak in 06 through the formentioned cycle.

[TheAntiDoomer]

IM #1!!!!!!!!

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'I')M #1!!!!!!!!

[Pops]

Very good AD.

Just for grins I downloaded the Brent prices and my performance using it improves from a total diff of $66 to $21!

In case anyone wants to noodle their own here they are:
Hi 5/2 - $126.64
Low 1/4 - $93.52
close 8/30 - $115.59

[PeakOiler]

lol @ Daniel_Plainview's pics.

Pops: Are you going to start a po.com Brent Crude Oil Price Challenge thread? (You get to keep track of the data.)

TheAntiDoomer has had the #1 spot four days this year, just not on the latest date that was reported that particular week.

The price of WTI sure jumped the last couple of days. Could this have anything to do with the storm that blew through Louisiana and the oil production facilities in the GOM? Perhaps supplies have tightened up...?

I bet the EIA reports lower than average imports tomorrow.

[PeakOiler]

Here are the leader stats as of August 30th:
Player___# Days @ #1___Percent
TheDude.....62.....37%
Daniel_Plainview.....30.5......18%
no_name.....25.....15%
basil_hayden.....19.....11%
Midessa.....13.....8%
Cog.....7.5 .....4%
kublikhan.....4.....2%
TheAntiDoomer.....4.....2%
OilFinder2.....2.....1%
Number of reported days: 167

[PeakOiler]

Here's the latest scorecard:



Sorry, TheAntiDoomer. You're not #1 as of Sept. 7th.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'l')ol @ Daniel_Plainview's pics.

Pops: Are you going to start a po.com Brent Crude Oil Price Challenge thread? (You get to keep track of the data.)

[basil_hayden]

I've consistent been in or near the top 10 for years. How the heck do I turn that into cash so I can work a 35-hour week? LOL

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')f anyone is interested I could start one next year or even this if you email me the speadsheet with the forecasts.

[TheAntiDoomer]

I'm Winning!

[PeakOiler]

Here's the latest scorecard since there's a change at #1. (For a little while.):



We're about finished with the 3rd turn of the race, and I think there's plenty of time for more changes. We shall see...