[SeaGypsy]

(spin off from stock market news thread)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')We will devalue (slowly) until the securitisation issue is resolved and titles are restored to US homes.

[timmac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')Land redistribution could be the basis, perhaps is the only basis, for the 'fresh start' the USA and so many other countries are going to need/ need desperately now.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')Land redistribution could be the basis, perhaps is the only basis, for the 'fresh start' the USA and so many other countries are going to need/ need desperately now.

[timmac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')It's going to happen...not in your lifetime though. We will go through a few decades of your tea prty style free market global economics where there will be little government and a return to Victorian quality poverty.The rich of course will pay no taxes and the will be a surge in creationist thinking.

[careinke]

Land distribution worked so well in Africa, we should try it here......NOT!!!

[SeaGypsy]

Do you own a bank Timmac? Got a few forclosed properties on your books? There are still vast amounts of land resources, houses etc, either in the public domain already or available at fractional prices right now.

For instance, say you could get together 10 adults to go up country and work together on a property. These 10 people could opt to waive rights to social security in return for 'establishment assistance'; relocating them to some fertile but impoverished vale inhabited by a mix of the 'establishment, original owner/ buyers' and new settlers who are in a position of having to work to make a go of their new life, or sell up and try to make whatever they get last the rest of their lives.

It is really hard to get some people to contemplate just how much things are going to inevitably change. The way things are going, much fertile land will end up empty in western countries as people flock to cities in search of survival. I doubt we are talking multiple decades before resourcing remote JIT is going to become impossible.

Just because it has been done wrong elsewhere does not mean it is at all impossible.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')It's going to happen...not in your lifetime though. We will go through a few decades of your tea prty style free market global economics where there will be little government and a return to Victorian quality poverty.The rich of course will pay no taxes and the will be a surge in creationist thinking.

[SeaGypsy]

I could not give a rat's poohbah about bloody Donald (fat arrogant stuck up pig platinum spooner)/ or any other fake polarity in the mockery of democracy the USA has become.

I am interested in the potential of resettlement programs.

Zimbabwe stuffed it up on the basis of racism and stupidy, removing farmers who knew what to do with the land, replacing them with poorly trained soldiers with no real resources to farm besides the land itself. An excersize in moronity.

BTW Africa is not a country.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')I have spun off this new thread to look at a topic I believe will be a key mandatory principle post financial armageddon.

Land redistribution could be the basis, perhaps is the only basis, for the 'fresh start' the USA and so many other countries are going to need/ need desperately now.

How this might be done is open to discussion. I feel this is a healthy way to approach the looming end of the nanny state, post oil economic disaster, perhaps even a new basis for currency?

[SeaGypsy]

Please read before posting

[SeaGypsy]

Australia has had a land redistribution program under the "Land Rights Act" for over 20 years BTW. The Philippines has a program under DNR for redistribution among peasant farmers. Neither of these models speak to the oil-less future in the slightest, any more than Mugabe's Zimbabwe does.

[Novus]

Should read about the Enclosure Movement as that is how I think things will go down in decades to come.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he process of enclosure has sometimes been accompanied by force, resistance, and bloodshed, and remains among the most controversial areas of agricultural and economic history in England. Rich landowners used their control of state processes to appropriate public land for their private benefit. This created a landless working class that provided the labor required in the new industries developing in the north of England. For example: "In agriculture the years between 1760 and 1820 are the years of wholesale enclosure in which, in village after village, common rights are lost. Enclosure (when all the sophistications are allowed for) was a plain enough case of class robbery."

[SeaGypsy]

Yep, thus if our systems of power are worth anything, they should act, even in death throes, to preserve some kind of common decency/ this is where they ought be focused.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I') could not give a rat's poohbah about bloody Donald (fat arrogant stuck up pig platinum spooner)/ or any other fake polarity in the mockery of democracy the USA has become.

I am interested in the potential of resettlement programs.

Zimbabwe stuffed it up on the basis of racism and stupidy, removing farmers who knew what to do with the land, replacing them with poorly trained soldiers with no real resources to farm besides the land itself. An excersize in moronity.

BTW Africa is not a country.

[SeaGypsy]

Having a number of Zimbabwean friends and colleagues in Australia I can tell you they have a great faith in their countries future in the long run and are busily turning $AUD into gold into land. Farm trained workers who took off when times were good elswhere are starting to return.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'H')aving a number of Zimbabwean friends and colleagues in Australia I can tell you they have a great faith in their countries future in the long run and are busily turning $AUD into gold into land. Farm trained workers who took off when times were good elswhere are starting to return.

[Cloud9]

England bought up and built American railroads after the Civil War. The lines went bust and J.P. Morgan bought them up for pennies on the dollar. The land and infrastructure does not leave but the speculators crash and burn.

[Pops]

First a little perspective on modern farming (pardon my 4th grade cyphers):

Field Corn has 2400 calories per pound x 2,000lb/ton x 4 ton/acre (this example says 6 tons/acre on irrigated land in central california but we'll be conservative) = 19,200,000 cal/ac

/ 2000 cal/day/person = 9,600 person/days =

26 years worth of calories for one person from one acre of modern corn!

According to the same paper it takes 28 gallons of diesel to farm that corn or just over 1 gallon per year to produce a year's worth of calories!
Somewhere else below it says it take 30 gallons of gasoline equivalent to make fertilizer for one acre of corn (I'm running out of time) so lets say that's 3 gallons of FFs per year per person plus another 3 gallons for milling and transport for a total of 6 gallons FF for a year's worth of calories.

That's less than 3 days of per/capita FF use in America, 5 in the rest of the OECD, outside the OECD it's about a month's worth of FF consumption. If you think my allocation of FFs is too low, double it, tripple it, raise it as much as you want.

THe net effect is modern farming is incredibly efficient and there is no real alternative at this level of population, I've heard all the claims that this guru or that one is 33 thousand times more efficient growing tomatoes in a 3x3 garden but the comparison is silly.

What will happen in the short term is the ethanol boondoggle wil reintroduce grass based protein. Today grassfed beef it is a niche market and hugely overpriced (in the US) but CAFO feeding of lightweight steers in grow-yards will largely go by the wayside and the finishing period wil get shorter and shorter as demand for ethanol here and food prices rise everywhere.

Consumption of dairy, eggs, pork raised on grain will fall and dairy and beef will be raised more and more on grass. Grazing of course reduces phosphate and potassium use by 98% in cattle because P&K is not volatile when "recycled".

So...
There is no reason to imagine that modern farming will ever go back to the scythe - we aren't going to forget how to make a grain drill and combine even if it's pulled by a team of oxen. Certainly we won't forget so soon to think land will be taken from the most productive use and returned to the least.

But, as pointed out above, protein will return to grass and this will be the outlet for those eliminated from the 9-5 economy. Today I'd say there are hundreds of thousands of acres of small scale acreage suitable for grazing but not for large scale row cropping. Some may have become overgrown or are marginally usable for crops today and soon will be ruined for tilling. Today grass fed beef is not competitive with feedlot beef in quality but as corn is increasingly burned in ICEs the price will rise to a point it will again be the norm for the average guy. After all, he won't be eating feedlot raised beef fillet, he'll be eating hamburger -
on a good day.



ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petro ... d_text.htm
http://seekingalpha.com/article/210551- ... n-plummets
http://coststudies.ucdavis.edu/files/CornSV2008.pdf
http://green.autoblog.com/2007/03/01/mo ... logist-pu/
http://phosphorusfutures.net/peak-phosphorus
http://www.waldeneffect.org/blog/Calori ... ous_foods/
http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/outreach/ ... rsions.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fu ... gy_balance
http://www.google.com/search?aq=f&sourc ... fertilizer

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'F')irst a little perspective on modern farming (pardon my 4th grade cyphers):

Field Corn has 2400 calories per pound x 2,000lb/ton x 4 ton/acre (this example says 6 tons/acre on irrigated land in central california but we'll be conservative) = 19,200,000 cal/ac

/ 2000 cal/day/person = 9,600 person/days =

26 years worth of calories for one person from one acre of modern corn!

According to the same paper it takes 28 gallons of diesel to farm that corn or just over 1 gallon per year to produce a year's worth of calories!
Somewhere else below it says it take 30 gallons of gasoline equivalent to make fertilizer for one acre of corn (I'm running out of time) so lets say that's 3 gallons of FFs per year per person plus another 3 gallons for milling and transport for a total of 6 gallons FF for a year's worth of calories.

That's less than 3 days of per/capita FF use in America, 5 in the rest of the OECD, outside the OECD it's about a month's worth of FF consumption. If you think my allocation of FFs is too low, double it, tripple it, raise it as much as you want.

THe net effect is modern farming is incredibly efficient and there is no real alternative at this level of population, I've heard all the claims that this guru or that one is 33 thousand times more efficient growing tomatoes in a 3x3 garden but the comparison is silly.

What will happen in the short term is the ethanol boondoggle wil reintroduce grass based protein. Today grassfed beef it is a niche market and hugely overpriced (in the US) but CAFO feeding of lightweight steers in grow-yards will largely go by the wayside and the finishing period wil get shorter and shorter as demand for ethanol here and food prices rise everywhere.

Consumption of dairy, eggs, pork raised on grain will fall and dairy and beef will be raised more and more on grass. Grazing of course reduces phosphate and potassium use by 98% in cattle because P&K is not volatile when "recycled".

So...
There is no reason to imagine that modern farming will ever go back to the scythe - we aren't going to forget how to make a grain drill and combine even if it's pulled by a team of oxen. Certainly we won't forget so soon to think land will be taken from the most productive use and returned to the least.

But, as pointed out above, protein will return to grass and this will be the outlet for those eliminated from the 9-5 economy. Today I'd say there are hundreds of thousands of acres of small scale acreage suitable for grazing but not for large scale row cropping. Some may have become overgrown or are marginally usable for crops today and soon will be ruined for tilling. Today grass fed beef is not competitive with feedlot beef in quality but as corn is increasingly burned in ICEs the price will rise to a point it will again be the norm for the average guy. After all, he won't be eating feedlot raised beef fillet, he'll be eating hamburger -
on a good day.



ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petro ... d_text.htm
http://seekingalpha.com/article/210551- ... n-plummets
http://coststudies.ucdavis.edu/files/CornSV2008.pdf
http://green.autoblog.com/2007/03/01/mo ... logist-pu/
http://phosphorusfutures.net/peak-phosphorus
http://www.waldeneffect.org/blog/Calori ... ous_foods/
http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/outreach/ ... rsions.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fu ... gy_balance
http://www.google.com/search?aq=f&sourc ... fertilizer

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')To bad you can't live on calories alone. How do you replace the topsoil lost by monoculture? Modern farming is no more viable than Fiat currencies in the long run.