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The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby SeaGypsy » Mon 08 Aug 2011, 09:11:49

Nope, gets silly if peeps just jump in anywhere IMO
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 08 Aug 2011, 09:34:16

I think i should be pretty close to #1. Update the chart so I can enjoy some brief glory :)
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby pup55 » Mon 08 Aug 2011, 10:15:30

I am usually pretty laid back but I think John RM should wait til next year to get on the official scoreboard. We can still give him a little love and respect on the basis of his 5-month forecast, if we feel it is deserved.

This year suddenly looks a lot different than it did in January, doesn't it?
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby basil_hayden » Mon 08 Aug 2011, 10:22:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '
')This year suddenly looks a lot different than it did in January, doesn't it?


Not really - at least not like a couple years ago; inflate the ballon (QE), pop the ballon (unemployment), price falls to new lowest possible level ($75ish), taking a worthless dollar and depletion into account.
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby careinke » Mon 08 Aug 2011, 15:11:37

I don't think John was asking to join. He just said if he were making a guess now. Anyway Oil at 81.32 now looks like a flash crash around 2:50.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fu ... electronic
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby pup55 » Mon 08 Aug 2011, 15:33:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p')rice falls to new lowest possible level ($75ish)


I am rooting for about 77 but do not be surprised if it hits 33 again like it did in 2008.
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby SeaGypsy » Mon 08 Aug 2011, 17:15:56

The reason I put $77.70 as my low for the year is I believe things would have to be a lot worse than in 08 to breach this threshold.
There was no precedent to base a forcast on in 08, hence the radical fall. This time around the stuff will sit in tankers with it's owners holding out for a better price, as soon as it goes under $80.
Production costs likely have no more margin to give without breaking producer's backs.
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Mon 08 Aug 2011, 19:24:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'I') don't think John was asking to join. He just said if he were making a guess now. Anyway Oil at 81.32 now looks like a flash crash around 2:50.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fu ... electronic


I agree that John RM was perhaps not asking to join. I wanted to remind new readers that there was a deadline at the end of the first week of Jan.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Mon 08 Aug 2011, 19:34:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'I') think i should be pretty close to #1. Update the chart so I can enjoy some brief glory :)


I entered $80.46 for the new low and closing prices in my "What If" page of the Excel workbook, selected the cells, clicked sort, and basil_hayden held the #1 spot, TheAntiDoomer held the #2 spot, and SeaGypsy held the #3 spot.

Again, I'll post the updated scorecard after the EIA report is released Wednesday.
Last edited by PeakOiler on Mon 08 Aug 2011, 19:57:35, edited 1 time in total.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Mon 08 Aug 2011, 19:41:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p')rice falls to new lowest possible level ($75ish)


I am rooting for about 77 but do not be surprised if it hits 33 again like it did in 2008.


Of course, I'm rooting for a low of $79.65. <<grin>>

I actually thought it would get that low in late January and steadily higher as the year went by.
We're still not through the 3rd turn of the race, so there's plenty of things that can happen between now and the end of the year!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby basil_hayden » Mon 08 Aug 2011, 20:59:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'I') think i should be pretty close to #1. Update the chart so I can enjoy some brief glory :)


I entered $80.46 for the new low and closing prices in my "What If" page of the Excel workbook, selected the cells, clicked sort, and basil_hayden held the #1 spot, TheAntiDoomer held the #2 spot, and SeaGypsy held the #3 spot.

Again, I'll post the updated scorecard after the EIA report is released Wednesday.


Can't be right then, the only thing I ever win at is head to head fantasy football.
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby careinke » Mon 08 Aug 2011, 21:57:44

76.19 only seven more dollars and I hit my low. Then Ben can announce QE3 and I will hit my high. You are all dooooommmmmeeeeeddd
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby SteinarN » Tue 09 Aug 2011, 03:01:51

I think it hit 79 ish this morning. It can stop falling now and slowly creep up towards the end of the year :razz:
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Wed 10 Aug 2011, 18:51:31

Here's the latest scorecard:

Image

I really like the new low. My Low-Diff guess is only off by 35 cents! (The second lowest of all players.)

If the closing price gets back up to $106, I'll be #1!
:-D
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby SeaGypsy » Thu 11 Aug 2011, 19:59:35

Aside from closed price which of course isn't in yet, I have a clear second behind steiner. :razz:
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby SteinarN » Thu 11 Aug 2011, 20:05:11

I'm 30 cent off on the low price. If the closing price reach about 99,9 I will be in the lead until it reaches 105,9 where Peak Oiler will take the lead.

Looking not to bad :)
Last edited by SteinarN on Fri 12 Aug 2011, 03:23:40, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby ColossalContrarian » Fri 12 Aug 2011, 00:54:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'I') am usually pretty laid back but I think John RM should wait til next year to get on the official scoreboard. We can still give him a little love and respect on the basis of his 5-month forecast, if we feel it is deserved.

This year suddenly looks a lot different than it did in January, doesn't it?


It does, but that's what makes the game so much fun and so many people here appreciate you and PeakOiler's efforts in keeping score.
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby ColossalContrarian » Fri 12 Aug 2011, 00:56:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '7')6.19 only seven more dollars and I hit my low. Then Ben can announce QE3 and I will hit my high. You are all dooooommmmmeeeeeddd


at least gas will be cheep!

EDIT: and then high again....
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby TheAntiDoomer » Fri 12 Aug 2011, 12:05:41

update update, am I not #1 now? :razz:
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

"expect 8$ gas on 08/08/08" - Prognosticator
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Sat 13 Aug 2011, 07:17:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'u')pdate update, am I not #1 now? :razz:


No, you are not #1. Don't forget that we are using the EIA's data and they only report once a week.

With the current YTD high of $113.93 and current YTD low of $79.30, the leader will be basil_hayden when the closing price is between $79.30 and $89.42,
TheAntiDoomer when the closing price is between $89.44 and $93.15,
SeaGypsy when the closing price is between $93.16 and $98.84,
SteinarN when the closing price is between $98.86 and $105.90,
and PeakOiler when the closing price is $105.91 to $113.93.

Above $113.93, a new high price is set for the year and a new set of iterations would have to be performed.
Last edited by PeakOiler on Sat 13 Aug 2011, 09:40:02, edited 1 time in total.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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