I try not to make predictions, but I do play with “scenarios.” Maybe a weasel word for prediction
Not sure about the details of what scenarios I was considering 7 years ago, I didn't write them down in my journal. I joined PO.com in 2006, by which time I was thinking a Great Depression scenario was likely.
On Jan 2, 2007, I wrote the scenario below about the time period from 2007 to 2015. Not sure if I posted this on PO.com, I'm guessing I didn't.
I was right about a lengthy recession, double-digit unemployment, and a collapse in demand for housing (surprisingly, since the housing market wasn't really on my radar at the time) by 2010. I probably overemphasized the role of peak oil and definitely didn't consider the house of cards that the financial sector has built out of our economy. I also exaggerated the noticeable increase in homelessness and alcoholism, among other things.
We've had inflation, but not as bad as in my scenario (I said double-digit). I also didn't properly account for the differential effects of a recession based on class, age, occupation, and location (lots of folks in the US are feeling the hurt of the recession, but there are still plenty of Americans living large).
By 2015 I wrote that we'd be in a full blown Great Depression with 30%+ unemployment. Guess we'll see how that prediction pans out....
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
')January 2, 2007
A SCENARIO
The American economy continues to chug along its current trajectory for the next few years, slowly crumbling for the masses while the elite reap an obscene bounty. We enter a “recession” that, in a few years, looks suspiciously like a depression, in part triggered by highly volatile and rapidly rising oil prices. Fedgov plays statistical magic with the figures, but even they are forced to admit double-digit unemployment by 2010. But most people are still employed, though their hours have been cut and their real wages devalued because of inflation. The homeless population increases, but most don’t notice as the great majority of the newly homeless live in their cars. Alcohol and drug problems get worse. Jobs become harder and harder to find, the want ads dwindle in size, and if you get a job, you do anything you have to do to keep it. Older people are forced to go back to work as their fixed incomes become worth less and less with every year of double-digit inflation. Most people are forced to forgo luxuries. Cars get progressively older as no one can afford to buy new ones. The highways are still clogged, but most vehicles have two or three people in them. Exotic vacations are largely a thing of the past. People are forced to share apartments, or stay with their parents longer and longer. The number of yard sales explodes as people sell their possessions to pay the rent. But for the most part, American life in 2010 is as it was in 2005, only slightly less so.
Because our way of life is not negotiable, the American body politic reacts to these developments by reducing environmental protections and busting unions in the name of economic development. Since our last disastrous resource war in Iraq, the American public has lost stomach for crusades (for now at least), but we continue to occupy most of our outposts in the Empire. Rumblings against Iran, or some other brown-skinned bugaboo, abound, but everyone knows we can’t afford it, and no one will lend us the money. We try to drill our way out of the oil shortage, but few companies are willing to risk investing in such a chaotic environment, and whatever we do find doesn’t even come close to covering our domestic oil demand. We open up the national forests to logging, but companies are reluctant to bid on the timber when housing demand has collapsed. But the tar sands, coal fields, and natural gas deposits are all sucked dry, and the earth left to heal on its own.
By 2015 the realities of Peak Oil are clear. Production has been plateauing for years, and no new major discoveries have been made. The eroding economic conditions in the United States reduce demand somewhat, but global demand continues to exceed supply. The United States is in a full-blown depression. The TV news now uses the term casually, though the fedgov still prefers “recession.” Unemployment exceeds 30%, and many of those who do work are underemployed. Co-housing becomes necessary for nearly everyone, and extended families living under one roof becomes more common. Everything costs more, sometimes a lot more. Store shelves aren’t as bountiful as they once were—empty shelves have become so common they no longer warrant notice. More and more people grow gardens, and stay home on their time off rather than travel. Petty theft and street crime get worse. Alcohol poisoning and drug overdose cases skyrocket. Potholes don’t get fixed as fast as they used to, and sometimes don’t get fixed at all. People rarely drive alone—they can’t afford it. Electricity is still available, but it isn’t as reliable as it used to be, and it’s a bit “browner.” The year 2015 concludes with no end of the Greater Depression in sight. On the contrary, things seem to be getting worse with the passage of every year, and there’s no end to the Troubles in sight.
The choices are endless. We do know that things have changed radically (AAA downgraded AA+) and will continue to do so. Hang on, 
