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THE Karl Denninger Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Denninger's latest rant against Kunstler and Greens

Unread postby Jotapay » Fri 18 Jun 2010, 15:23:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Forney2008', 'A')lso according to KD, the government stimulus being spent was not supposed to work but apparently it has at least artificially kept the markets up and stabilized the unemployment situation. ( in all fairness, I agree that things will more than likely head south again soon as we cannot maintain the ever growing debt burden, plus with the whole Europe situation).


Reconcile that 10% of GDP is fake. It is borrowed stimulus money. Take that away and the resulting 10% reduction in GDP would be officially defined as a "depression" by economists. So this is working to you, eh?
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Re: Denninger's latest rant against Kunstler and Greens

Unread postby NoWorries » Fri 18 Jun 2010, 18:33:30

Jotapay is correct.

Obama himself publicly stated that "without the stimulus bill, we would be in a Depression now." (You can look it up.)

I'm wondering what happens after the stimulus ends.
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Re: Denninger's latest rant against Kunstler and Greens

Unread postby Roy » Fri 18 Jun 2010, 20:22:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't agree that you get banned if Karl disagrees with you. You get banned by not following the rules in the terms of service or rules in a sub-forum.


You're right, that was a little hasty on my part.

But Karl sure doesn't like it when the conversation turns in more controversial directions. There are certain subjects there that he will not allow to be broached.

I enjoy most of the tickers and I agree with him that we need to stop the looting and start prosecuting.

Congrats on the debt paydown. That must feel really good.

I feel like trying to pay my mortgage off early is futile. I'd be giving money to a bank that I could have used for something useful like a handpump for my well, solar panels, and other stuff that I think I will need in a lower energy future.

After reading the market-ticker blog for the last year or so, I'm starting to come around to the fiscal situation we're in now. I don't think that the dollar will be worth anything by the time my mortgage is due to paid off. Hell the wheels could fall off at any time now. All it would take is either a repudiation of the US' credit rating (no more loans or having to pay much higher interest for those loans) or maybe oil exporting countries deciding to sell their oil for currencies other than dollars.

Those are just two of many potential events that could cause a collapse here in the US. I feel like we're teetering on the edge of something awful right now. I felt that way two years ago, and we're still here. :)

We pay our money and we take our chances.

Don't be a stranger to PO.com. Your posts add a lot of value and insight to this place.

All the best, Jotapay.

Roy
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Shooting the messenger is typical when you are incapable of arguing against them. -- Airline Pilot
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Re: Denninger's latest rant against Kunstler and Greens

Unread postby Jotapay » Fri 18 Jun 2010, 21:23:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roy', '1'). But Karl sure doesn't like it when the conversation turns in more controversial directions. There are certain subjects there that he will not allow to be broached.

2. Don't be a stranger to PO.com. Your posts add a lot of value and insight to this place.


1. Well, there are mores in every culture. I don't bring up 9/11 stuff there at all, that's an immediate banning. Like Karl says, there are other places for that. I was banned on a sub-forum before I figured out all the rules. It was an intimidating place at first (but fascinating).

2. I won't. I was arguing too much with people that I disagreed with, which I didn't like. I felt like I was making a horse's ass out of myself after a while with all the back and forth arguing with the Statists and such. So I usually just read and then post when I have something that might not be heard from any other source. Mattduke posts most of the stuff that I would otherwise post. :-)
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Strong warning from Max Keiser; Karl Denninger concerned

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 14 Oct 2010, 00:29:10

This is flying all over the doomer internetz:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]I am hearing from my sources in Europe and in the Middle East, the Hedge Funds and Big Money, they plan to attack the US dollar tomorrow in a very substantial way.

(snip) So there is a clear oligarchy in America, Hank Paulson is from that oligarchy, they are working against the interests of the people of the US. To reiterate my point, Americans at this point don't deserve to have their own country. A lot of big money around the world is going to drop the dollar and basically disenfranchise the US economy.

This is not just a remark in passing, this means that the US economy goes belly up effectively and the dollar gets completely wiped out the face of the earth and gold goes to 1400, 1500, 1600 dollars an ounce because the big money in the world is sick of the liars, Tim Geithner, Barack Obama, Ben Bernanke, they are sick of the financial terrorism, they are sick of the grand standing, and they are going to drop kick them over gold post into a sea of their own bad debts. So forget about the specifics here, we are talking about wholesale countrywide loss of their sovereign credit. The US government bond will be about as valuable as garbage.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/146243.html


Karl Denninger's take on it:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')eware folks...... he may be full of it, but if not, we're headed for a real problem:

(snip) Grandstanding? I don't know, but I'll tell you what - the FX this morning is damn violent, Gold and Oil are as bad or worse, and of course dippy is coming in and buying futures and high-tech stocks, along with the very banks that will be destroyed if this is real in the market this morning.

Remember folks, before you dismiss this as the ranting of a kook, that George Soros decided to take out The Bank of England not all that long ago.

He succeeded in his efforts and made a billion dollars at the same time. I would be very, very careful right now with any sort of financial asset. IF this is real, and IF this is starting here and now, we're cooked folks unless there's a 180 degree about face on the bogus games along with the rank financial terrorism and fraud.
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Usually when I post something quoting someone as saying something will happen "tomorrow" or actually any date at all, it turns out not to happen. So hopefully by posting this then nothing will happen and that would be a good thing.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Mon 01 Aug 2011, 16:45:25, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged thread.
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Re: Strong warning from Max Keiser; Karl Denninger concerned

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 14 Oct 2010, 01:26:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')h good. Then I can build that workshop table tomorrow?


I'd say yes. Can't hurt to have a good, sturdy workshop table while living through a currency collapse.

To add some more context.. I just noticed that the Keiser interview was posted on Monday, so "tomorrow" would have been Tuesday. So I guess he's wrong on the exact timing, but a few hours ago the dollar took a nosedive:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?get_gallerynr=389[/img]

It's not good news. It's very bad news.

(snip)

That's another 0.75% decline in the value of the dollar in the last couple of hours, and is very disorderly.

(snip)

The dollar looks to be headed to 72, historical lows.

Bernanke is clearly intending exactly that sort of thing, in an orderly format. What's going on this evening is anything but orderly.

If this keeps up by the time Bernanke gets to his meeting the dollar will be lucky if it's not in the 60s, below all historical support levels. Somewhere in here it will come under severe speculative attack.

Bernanke thinks he can control this if it happens. He's wrong.

I wrote about this in 2007 and said that if it happened - the last time we were down there - it would be a catastrophe. Such an event would cause commodities to shoot the moon on a literal basis and result in massive capital flight of foreign funds out of the United States.

This is exactly the sort of trap that can lead a central banker to make the critical mistake of trying to "ease" even more - that is, print his way out. If he makes that error the currency is destroyed and when it implodes the government will go with it, as every citizen's liquid net worth will be rendered value-less overnight, exactly as occurred in Weimar.

From that outcome will come the sort of change nobody with any hint of sanity wants.

His only other option is to massively withdraw liquidity to support the dollar. That collapses every large bank - overnight.
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php/17186-Max-Keiser-All-out-attack-on-the-with-in-the-next-24-hours!?p=177407#poststop


So anyhow I was reading comments on that ticker blog and noticed people saying "Maybe Max was right," and I dug around a bit and found the Keiser interview they were talking about.

Bottom line on all this.. a crashing dollar means paying more for gas and anything else that involves imports. Conversely, if you own or work for a business that exports or caters to foreign customers, then a trashy dollar is good for you (though it still hurts your buying power).
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Re: Strong warning from Max Keiser; Karl Denninger concerned

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 14 Oct 2010, 02:31:50

Good dig Six.
I suspect the last line has as much to do with what's going on as any conspiracy.
The USA has no real strength if it does not regain it's position industrially, all the service economy bull looks fine when there is oil oozing out of the sand everywhere. Not now bud. Everyone wants that stuff.
If you want it you have to pay in the market. Much of this market is futures, nearly all of it to some extent.
With the backside falling out of it's trousers, due to over reliance on service jobs and failure to keep an eye on the ball internationally, the USD$ future is looking very shakey both as reserve and as oil futures base currency.
There has to be some economic violence, something extreme, to bring back the date projected for ending USD$ reserve status. The details of how this is going down, I look forward to learning about.
Don't forget Uncle Sam, this has to happen. God or no God, the USA has no right to use up the world's resources at the rate it does, the ledger must balance sooner or later. Looks like it's being audited as we chat.
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Karl Denninger explains the debt ceiling deal

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 01 Aug 2011, 02:15:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell here's Boehner's "compromise"; what it does is:

Lie once again about "cutting spending." It does no such thing. It increases spending - every year. Bogus and outright-fraudulent "baseline budgeting" means that if they intended to boost spending $300 billion but only increase it $200, that's a $100 billion "cut." If you ran your household like this you'd be broke in a week. For the US, it will take a bit longer.

No tax increases. That's nice, but let's not forget that while the Democrats scream about the "Bush Tax Cuts" the FICA tax cut was theirs. Obama signed it. You cannot keep reducing income and increasing spending forever.

The cuts, fraudulent though they are, aren't even real anyway - and not binding either. There's nothing before 2013, which means a downgrade is almost certain. Further, raising the debt ceiling now for the whole among but allegedly finding the "cuts" over 10 years is an outright fraud by a ratio of 10:1.

A 2013 timeline for actual changes means nothing, since the next Congress is not bound by what this one does. Period.

Sequesterization didn't work in 1997. It won't work in 2011 either.

We failed to get to $4 trillion. That's what S&P said they needed, and they said they needed to see that within the next three years. Now we find out if S&P has any balls.
We also get to find out if the so-called "Tea Party" is worthy of the name. Yeah, I posted that my opinions change when facts do, and they appeared to.

Boehner needs to be ejected from Congress in the next election, and the remaining "mainstream" Republicans must go with him, along with any claiming to be "Tea Partiers" who vote for this abortion.

All of them.

In the meantime, kill this bill and by doing so balance the budget in three days.
http://market-ticker.org/


Well I like this debt deal. It's a brilliant piece of work that looks like it means something but really doesn't. Everybody claims victory, everyone's happy.

If there ever are Medicare cuts from the Super Congress special committee, from what I read it will come from the provider side. That's fair. Doctors can afford it more than their patients can.

EDIT: If the Super Dedooper Congress special joint committee / star chamber can't agree on what to cut.. then a trigger happens and automatic big cuts apply to Medicare and Defense (18% per year for defense 8O). Though as KD points out, they really aren't cuts but rather slowing the rate of growth. Also it's apparent that the Bush tax cuts will be expiring for good (a good thing, I really don't want to pay more but the country is imploding here we must do something).

Moderate cuts to education.. like 20% from student loans, no biggee there ain't no jobs nohow why all the college? It's a waste.

What is most interesting are these really big defense cuts. There's no way the right wing will support this.. my prediction is the defense cut portion will be dropped.

What's most likely to happen is that the super congress special committee won't be able to agree either and the next Congress will just ignore this whole thing rather than allow the triggers to ever go in effect. From a liberal perspective, they should stand firm demanding the trigger on defense spending stay in the bill -- that's the only leverage liberals will have to force compromise with Repubs in the new Super Dedooper Congress special committee.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Mon 01 Aug 2011, 16:47:07, edited 6 times in total.
Reason: Merged thread.
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Re: Karl Denninger explains the debt ceiling deal

Unread postby eastbay » Mon 01 Aug 2011, 02:31:48

Why not simply raise the debt limit to infinity and get it over with? It'll eventually reach there anyhow.
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Re: Karl Denninger explains the debt ceiling deal

Unread postby JohnRM » Mon 01 Aug 2011, 03:06:46

I will take even an illusionary agreement that just boosts the ceiling. If people think everything is okay, then everything will be okay for just a little longer. I am not quite ready for the serious trouble. Give me one more decent year or two, please!
"The world is my country, all mankind are my brethren, and to do good is my religion." -- Thomas Paine
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Re: Karl Denninger explains the debt ceiling deal

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 01 Aug 2011, 03:08:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnRM', 'I') will take even an illusionary agreement that just boosts the ceiling. If people think everything is okay, then everything will be okay for just a little longer. I am not quite ready for the serious trouble. Give me one more decent year or two, please!


Yeah, that's the good news. No cuts or tax increases until after 2013. So this buys time, time to see what happens to the economy more time for people to prep, etc.
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Re: Karl Denninger explains the debt ceiling deal

Unread postby Cog » Mon 01 Aug 2011, 05:07:21

Just remember, you are now prepping for a much more serious event now than if there had been real cuts to the budget. Delaying those cuts have made things infinitely worse.
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Re: Karl Denninger explains the debt ceiling deal

Unread postby prajeshbhat » Mon 01 Aug 2011, 05:36:14

Found this post on some conservative site ranting about Obama's plans. An old guy posted this response to the mindless rant.
If only everyone thought like this.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')John Easterling says:
July 22, 2011 at 4:03 am

Kathleen,

I will soon be turn 65. I’ve paid into SS/Med since 1964. I also served in Vietnam in 1966-67, went to college on GI bill and built my first house with GI bill assistance. I suffer from the effects of agent organge, but have not filed for veterans benefits because I am employed full time and happy to be so. I’ve given to my country, my country has given to me. I feel fairly treated so far and i think the country feels the same towards me.

I only expect to get back what I have paid for. If the American people through their elected officals decide that they are not going to keep up their end of the agreement, I will be very dissapointed and will become a cynic about the whole process.

Here is my question for everyone who wants a balanced budget. How will they do it? What, exactly will they cut, what taxes will go up. Put it all on the table, identify the cuts, tell the voters what it is going to cost them, then ask the voters to vote on it. I think it will take a shared sacrifice. Hopefully we will find the courage for it, but given our collective selfishness, it will take a catostrophe to get us there. It looks like that is just ahead.

These are the questions I would like to get answers to, and you seem to me to be the kind of young lady who would like those answers to.

Thank you for taking the time to read this.

kind regards,

John


Good to see there are sane people out there.
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Re: Karl Denninger explains the debt ceiling deal

Unread postby babystrangeloop » Mon 01 Aug 2011, 08:08:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('prajeshbhat', 'F')ound this post on some conservative site ranting about Obama's plans. An old guy posted this response to the mindless rant.
If only everyone thought like this.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')John Easterling says:

I only expect to get back what I have paid for.

... provided that you don't count any of the "externalized costs". :lol:

If he had written "I participated in building a world that sucked down all the natural resources and output an every-growing stream of toxic waste so I'm ready to reap all the benefits of my actions." then I would think he was sane. As-is he's simply delusional, relating to the world on purely economic terms.
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Re: Karl Denninger explains the debt ceiling deal

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 01 Aug 2011, 13:47:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('babystrangeloop', 'I')f he had written "I participated in building a world that sucked down all the natural resources and output an every-growing stream of toxic waste so I'm ready to reap all the benefits of my actions." then I would think he was sane. As-is he's simply delusional, relating to the world on purely economic terms.


Okay so you want to blame the baby boomers.

Are they really the problem? There are over two billion Chinese and Indians.. but there ain't two billion American baby boomers..

How do you really know who to blame anyway, maybe it was the railroad's fault or whoever invented the steam engine. Or blame early homo sapiens for having the gall to spread out through the Sinai bottleneck and very quickly populate all over the planet with no more technology than fire, sticks and stones.
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Re: Karl Denninger explains the debt ceiling deal

Unread postby careinke » Mon 01 Aug 2011, 16:42:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'O')kay so you want to blame the baby boomers. Are they really the problem? There are over two billion Chinese and Indians.. but there ain't two billion American baby boomers..

I have it narrowed down to two possibilities. Either the discovery of Agriculture or women getting the right to vote. :wink:
OK, for all you who didn't get it, I'm just kidding about the right to vote thing.
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