[Aaron]

Oil & Gas Alternatives:

- Conservation
- Efficiency
- Hydrocarbon Substitutes

That's about it.

Much posting recently concerning alternative energy futures... (bigg surprise there)

And quite appropriate faced with peak oil.

I've done a great deal of research on oil alternatives myself, and enjoyed reading the findings of our members research.

Among the non-oil technologies being explored, several emerge as promising new ways to meet our planet's energy demands in the future.

Wind/Solar/Hydro/Nuclear/Biofuel/Efficiency

These "known" technologies are certain to contribute to our future energy profile as we march down the slope of Hubbert's Peak.

And a more speculative list of exotic oil alternative sources may indeed deliver on the whispered promises of their supporters.

Much has also been made of comparisons between EROEI calculations in an attempt to estimate where we stand in meeting anticipated depletion of oil & gas resources.

And rightly so...

However,

The difficulty I encounter before I ever get to comparative analysis among technologies are the relationships which exist between these technologies & hydrocarbons.

When evaluating alternatives I immediately want to know a couple of basic things.

1) To what extent does relatively cheap hydrocarbon power today subsidize the alternative in question?

2) How do the expected rates of return from investing in alternatives compare to expected oil & gas depletion rates?

Until I answer these 2 basic questions, any comparisons are somewhat meaningless.

I would argue that:

1) Hydrocarbon energy massively subsidizes almost every aspect of our civilization to an extent which will render all known oil alternative technologies hopelessly expensive as oil prices rise.

2) Rapid depletion from half a century of MRE wells will outstrip any potential alternative energy candidates (or indeed any combination) ability to compensate in a meaningful way.

In other words, oil is just such a kick ass source of energy, even our most promising alternatives are an almost irrelevant consideration if we include oil's secret subsidy of these alternatives in the calculation.

And even if we somehow figure out some wonderful new power source today, can we ramp it up to meet the anticipated depletion rates?

And that is I think the ultimate arbitrator of this argument.

How much freakin oil is left?!?!

Until we have reliable info on reserves, we can't know the exact midpoint, or calculate a meaningful depletion rate globally.

I have almost no doubt that every technology I mentioned will indeed become viable sources of energy. But if we believe Simmons & co are correct in predicting rapid declines past midpoint, I can hardly see how it will matter.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')1) Hydrocarbon energy massively subsidizes almost every aspect of our civilization to an extent which will render all known oil alternative technologies hopelessly expensive as oil prices rise.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')1) Hydrocarbon energy massively subsidizes almost every aspect of our civilization to an extent which will render all known oil alternative technologies hopelessly expensive as oil prices rise.

[linlithgowoil]

im not so sure prices will go all that high for alternative energy, beyond a certain point no one can afford it and the price falls again.

same with oil - i doubt oil will ever go much higher than $100 a barrel, ever. $100 a barrel oil is pretty expensive, especially if you are in recession/depression.

$1 a barrel is pretty expensive if you have zero excess money after buying food.

[aahala]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')1) To what extent does relatively cheap hydrocarbon power today subsidize the alternative in question?

[Ludi]

Alternative energy, subsidized by cheap oil, is already expensive and not affordable for many of us. How will it become more affordable if cheap oil isn't available for its manufacture?

[Ebyss]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'A')lternative energy, subsidized by cheap oil, is already expensive and not affordable for many of us. How will it become more affordable if cheap oil isn't available for its manufacture?

[NonToxic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'A')lternative energy, subsidized by cheap oil, is already expensive and not affordable for many of us. How will it become more affordable if cheap oil isn't available for its manufacture?

[aahala]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'A')lternative energy, subsidized by cheap oil, is already expensive and not affordable for many of us. How will it become more affordable if cheap oil isn't available for its manufacture?

[Egon_1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')aron wrote:

1) Hydrocarbon energy massively subsidizes almost every aspect of our civilization to an extent which will render all known oil alternative technologies hopelessly expensive as oil prices rise.

Doly wrote:

Not convinced about this one at all. Why would:
a) Solar
b) Wind
c) Nuclear
d) Biomass
be hopelessly expensive assuming that there is shortage of oil?

Note that I'm saying shortage, not complete lack. I don't expect that we'll run out of plastics in the near future, they'll just be more expensive.

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hink about the oil use in: mining/processing the raw materials, transporting the raw materials, the manufacturing process, packaging, distribution, not to mention everything related to those things, and I think it becomes clear that oil is subsidizing just about everything we do.
The big question is just how much, and what alternatives to that subsidizing will come into play in the future.

[khebab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'A')lternative energy, subsidized by cheap oil, is already expensive and not affordable for many of us. How will it become more affordable if cheap oil isn't available for its manufacture?

[heyhoser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NonToxic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'A')lternative energy, subsidized by cheap oil, is already expensive and not affordable for many of us. How will it become more affordable if cheap oil isn't available for its manufacture?

[heyhoser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('khebab', 'N')ow, we have a huge infrastructure totaly hydrocarbon dependant to maintain and make the transition toward new energy sources in the same time. In Canada, for instance, roads an highways have to be remade every three or five years because of the huge temperature shifts we have here. This process is highly energy intensive and requires access to fossil fuels.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NonToxic', 'I') think you should change you wording from "not affordable for many of us" to "not affordable for most of us".

[MicroHydro]

There is no avoiding the world economic depression, and the end of the "American Way of Life", and some increased level of dieoff from war/disease/famine beyond that what is already happening.

Having said that, in theory, once the dust settles, a new sustainable civilization could be built on wind. Turbines now have an EROEI of 35. They are mainly made of aluminum. Aluminum making mainly requires electricity, which existing turbines can make. In theory bauxite could be mined with (unfree?) human labor and transported to the ore refinery in sailing ships if necessary.

In practice, one aluminum smelter has already located in Iceland with a dedicated hydropower source of electricity. Also, for a long time there will be plenty of scrap aluminum from all the airliners that will be sitting on the ground. There is no way that wind can save the current level of civilization, but there is no way that the whole planet is going back to the stone age either. Feudalism and slavery, yes, total abandonment of metallurgy and electricity, no. Strongmen will arise that will use the power of the gun to make sure that some infrastructure keeps going.

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'I') think there is an overall "subsidy" to society provided by cheap oil that indirectly helps all economic activities by providing cheap power, but since it is spread around the economy it "subsidizes" all energy intensive activities including the petroleum industry. As this "subsidy" is removed everything gets more expensive, that is pretty obvious. But this is IMO a missuse of the term "subsidy".

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NonToxic', 'I') think you should change you wording from "not affordable for many of us" to "not affordable for most of us".

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NonToxic', 'I') think you should change you wording from "not affordable for many of us" to "not affordable for most of us".

[Ebyss]

I thought when Aaron said :

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')) To what extent does relatively cheap hydrocarbon power today subsidize the alternative in question?