[PeakOiler]

Today I learned that the EIA does give price data for Brent crude.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm

The data are given in an Excel workbook which can be downloaded. So perhaps next year the game can be based on Brent spot prices.

Opinions?

[SeaGypsy]

Nope, why choose a specific regional price?
The point is global pricing as peak oil is a global issue.
Singapore exchange is the closest to me, the West Texas could be closest to more posters than any other.

[PeakOiler]

Another thing about using the Brent reference that I posted above is that it gives spot prices instead of contract prices.

[SeaGypsy]

So the difference being? We all know tankers full of oil are being bought in real time to sit and wait for a price bump, so physical oil aint much different to paper nowdays. Paper just stores longer cheaper.

[AdTheNad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'N')ope, why choose a specific regional price?
The point is global pricing as peak oil is a global issue.
Singapore exchange is the closest to me, the West Texas could be closest to more posters than any other.

[Pops]

Actually WTI is the more "regional" price since it is the price of crude at (for the moment) landlocked Cushing, OK and is vulnerable to all sorts of infrastructure and local supply and demand effects that have nothing to do with the global market. Even Louisiana Light Sweet trades more in line with OPECs basket price and Brent than it does with WTI.

But really, it makes no difference, it's just a game.

http://www.energyandcapital.com/article ... crude/1282
http://seekingalpha.com/article/249307- ... ic-factors
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/06 ... est-texas/

[SeaGypsy]

The main reason I want to stick with WTI is it's what is in the news every day around the world. It's what I grew up watching and people don't have to go digging around the net to find it. Pretty much every newspaper I have ever seen anywhere in 3 trips around the world has the WTI price on a day by day basis.
To my mind, this is enough argument to stick with it. The site should as much as possible reflect common awareness, rather than appealing to specialists.
IMHO.

[Midessa]

We should stick with WTI because, WEST TEXAS! I mean really, if we go to Brent, then what? We'll have a talking gecko with a cockney accent saying "sorry guvna, but ere's no updates available right now, tea time innit" that's what. We don't want that do we?

Just kidding, whatever is fine with me.

[PeakOiler]

I prefer staying with WTI as well. But anyone can start a spinoff game of this thread if they want to keep up with the additional data.

btw, the better sports analogy to the side stats I've posted would be a horse race.

It would be something like this:

"And out of the gates it's Daniel_Plainview and Cog running neck and neck, with OilFinder2, pup55 and TheDude just behind."

"And now, coming out of the first turn the loud fireworks in the Libyan section of the stands has scared the leaders, and it's now no_name and TheDude running neck and neck with Kublikhan, Midessa and PeakOiler not far behind."

"And now TheDude holds a strong lead into the second half of the track, but a tight group is not far behind..."

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Midessa', 'W')e should stick with WTI because, WEST TEXAS! I mean really, if we go to Brent, then what? We'll have a talking gecko with a cockney accent saying "sorry guvna, but ere's no updates available right now, tea time innit" that's what. We don't want that do we?

Just kidding, whatever is fine with me.

[pup55]

Hey, we're lookin' good, thanks to the friendly close this week.

The long timers may remember a couple of years ago when we attempted to run a sub-contest where we allowed forecasts in "euros per barrel", which would have been pretty entertaining, but I think only about 2 people entered it, making it marginally worth doing the calculation every week.

Peakoiler has done an excellent job of the thankless and rewardless job of keeping up with the weekly totals in "US Dollars per Barrel of WTI" and simple is good.

I am sure that if a volunteer steps forward next December to keep track of "Ounces of Gold per Barrel of Brent" or whatever other measurement you want, then a few of us will participate, and the winner will get some portion of the love and respect of the people on the forum, which is, after all, what we are about, right?

But, most people understand WTI and US Dollars, and the 45 or so of us who do this every year are having an entertaining year and if I am not mistaken, this tread is one of the more frequently viewed threads every week, so we're doing something right by keeping it low key and simple.

p.s. thanks again to PeakOiler who has diligently followed this every week, and made it all the more fun.

I the laid back judge, give him the six-month "pup55 seal of approval"

[PeakOiler]

LOL!

Thanks pup.

[jdmartin]

I rather see us stick with WTI. I think it's a better indicator overall. We use the most oil, it's on our shores, and it's been used before there even was a Brent indicator.

[PeakOiler]

TheDude still has the #1 spot, and will continue to hold the #1 spot until the closing price gets to $100.25 (or drops back down to ~ $90). At a closing price of $100.25, no_name will tie TheDude, and anything over $100.25, no_name will have the #1 spot until oil reaches a new high price for the year. (i.e. > $113.93)

I haven't estimated who the leaders might be if the price falls less than $90.

[PeakOiler]

Here's the scorecard as of July 26th:



TheDude has held the #1 spot 40% of the race.

"And as they enter the third turn, TheDude keeps the pace, but with stormy weather on the horizon, no_name, SteinarN, and Carlhole are running neck in neck, and catching up..."

[ColossalContrarian]

I didn't price in the SPR release and clearly that is why I'm not #1 and my forecast is off.

/sarc

[PeakOiler]

As of today's EIA's report on WTI, TheDude still holds first place, but with the way the price is dropping, we may have a new leader next week. I'll post another scorecard then if there is a change at #1.

[JohnRM]

What a lot of people are missing is that the economy, in its weakened condition, is less prone to price spikes than in 2008. Barring some major black swan event, I don't believe that the price can exceed $125 per barrel before the economy begins to recede. As it were, we hit just over $120 per barrel (Brent) and the signals went out that growth was coming to a near-halt. This put downward pressure on prices and, in general, this trend has continued, since then.

On the lower end, though the economy is weak and very fragile, I don't think that there are any more soft spots to be exploited to cause another deep recession like we experienced in 2008. We know what our problems are and despite the reality that there are no easy fixes to them, they cannot very well cause enough panic to drive crude prices anywhere near the depths that we saw after the July '08 spike. Demand is simply too strong, even in weakness, for that.

If I had to make a guess, right now...

High - $125
Low - $80
EOY - $105

[PeakOiler]

It appears a new low price for WTI will be set for the year this week. I'll post a new scorecard after the EIA releases their report.

JohnRM: pup55 is the laid back judge of the game and he should decide if you can be added to the list of players. Other readers should voice their opinions as well. Almost seven months past the deadline is pretty late and not really fair to the other players...

[basil_hayden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'I')t appears a new low price for WTI will be set for the year this week. I'll post a new scorecard after the EIA releases their report.

JohnRM: pup55 is the laid back judge of the game and he should decide if you can be added to the list of players. Other readers should voice their opinions as well. Almost seven months past the deadline is pretty late and not really fair to the other players...