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Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby peeker01 » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 20:38:48

wondering if the iea didn't intervene to keep peace between the moslims. maybe its
arab oil anyway, but it keeps neighbors form fightin.
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby seahorse3 » Tue 28 Jun 2011, 09:15:53

Pops, made some interesting observations about using IEA inventories to meet demand. I found another guy making similar observations here. http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2011/06/brace-yourselves-for-the-next-oil-price-shock.html
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby Pops » Tue 28 Jun 2011, 15:53:39

The Ecologist also has some good comments:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')We have learnt a big lesson. This is a dry run for how governments will respond in a few years time when we get a permanent oil price rise,’ says John Miles, chairman of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security.

... the government’s reaction shows it continues to be ‘behind the curve’ on peak oil. ‘They should be getting ready for how to deal with it, but my fear is they will wait and try to respond to it in a few years time.’


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')avid Korowicz, from the environmental analysts Feasta, explains: 'Firstly, rising prices squeeze out less essential consumption leading to business closures and unemployment. Secondly, higher oil prices mean more money flows out of oil consuming countries into oil producers. Less money flowing around the economy means less money for businesses, and less money for people to service their debts. Growing defaults further destabilise banks and government debt loads. The Eurozone, the US, and the UK are all suffering under massive debts, rising oil (and food) prices could effectively push them over the edge.'

The UK and world economies are effectively 'locked into' an unsustainable position. But rather than tackle the enormity of the crisis peak oil presents, the UK and others have decided to use any means possible to 'wriggle out of a high oil price'.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby babystrangeloop » Wed 29 Jun 2011, 10:12:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hy did bratticus have to change names?

I arrived backwards in time, just see how I put "first post" in front of the other posts:
post1063164.html
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby babystrangeloop » Thu 30 Jun 2011, 22:41:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Saudi Suggests 'Squeezing' Iran Over Nuclear Ambitions
BY JAY SOLOMON / WSJ / June 22, 2011

A leading member of Saudi Arabia's royal family warned that Riyadh could seek to supplant Iran's oil exports if the country doesn't constrain its nuclear program, a move that could hobble Tehran's finances.

In closed-door remarks earlier this month, Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal also strongly implied that Riyadh would be forced to follow suit if Tehran pushed ahead to develop nuclear weapons and said Saudi Arabia is preparing to employ all of its economic, diplomatic and security assets to confront Tehran's regional ambitions.

"Iran is very vulnerable in the oil sector, and it is there that more could be done ...

UPI repeated the story adding that it was likely Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal (and TPTB) were "floating the idea" only.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Saudi prince proposes oil war with Iran
UPI / June 30, 2011

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, June 30 (UPI) -- Underlining the escalating cold war between Saudi Arabia and its rival Iran, former intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal proposes the kingdom use its oil power to drive down prices to batter the Islamic Republic's sanctions-hit economy.

... skip ...

Turki, son of the late King Faisal, has no formal government position, but he's often used to float trial balloons regarding Saudi foreign policy.

Yep, poll for opinions on what it would be like to do a price war with oil. Can't actually use SA oil to do it but the world reacts and those who control SPRs just judge the reaction to decide if it's too big a risk before announcing more.

Must have received favorable responses for the IEA to go ahead and announce a plan to implement the flood of oil.
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby John_A » Thu 30 Jun 2011, 22:51:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'P')eak oil was supposed to be much more interesting (or terrifying even) than $80-$90 oil. I

It's all relative. If you're priced out of the market on the income side by losing your job or on the output side by simply not having the bucks to pay, I'd say it's probably still pretty terrifying.


I'm not sure terrifying is the word I would use for anyone losing their job. Not having the money for it has easy solutions, without the job it becomes difficult to do all sorts of things, and not eating strikes me as much more scary than not pumping fuel into your SUVs tank?
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby John_A » Thu 30 Jun 2011, 22:52:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse3', 'P')ops, made some interesting observations about using IEA inventories to meet demand. I found another guy making similar observations here. http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2011/06/brace-yourselves-for-the-next-oil-price-shock.html


Dave has good stuff occasionally. Not sure I like that new peak in 2010 though, it seems to go against all the rules of peak oil a few years ago.
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby babystrangeloop » Thu 30 Jun 2011, 22:58:04

So here it is in real time
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]S.Korea starts IEA-coordinated crude, fuel stocks release (update 2)
By Cho Mee-young, Additional reporting by Florence Tan in Singapore; Editing by Ed Lane / Reuters / June 28, 2011

SEOUL, June 28 (Reuters) - South Korea will start to release 3.46 million barrels of oil by "today at the earliest" as part of an IEA-coordinated effort to tame high global oil prices, a source at the economy ministry said on Tuesday.

Two million barrels of crude and 1.46 million barrels of refined fuel products, gasoline and diesel for automobiles, will be released as soon as deals are signed, the ministry source said.

"If a contract with a refiner is signed, the release will start from today at the earliest ... which crude oil to be released has not been decided yet," the ministry source told Reuters by phone. ...

In other words not a drop yet.

Meanwhile gasoline drops 40c in 50 days.
Image
at this rate they will pay you to buy gas in 450 days.
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 30 Jun 2011, 23:38:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'P')eak oil was supposed to be much more interesting (or terrifying even) than $80-$90 oil. I

It's all relative. If you're priced out of the market on the income side by losing your job or on the output side by simply not having the bucks to pay, I'd say it's probably still pretty terrifying.


I'm not sure terrifying is the word I would use for anyone losing their job. Not having the money for it has easy solutions, without the job it becomes difficult to do all sorts of things, and not eating strikes me as much more scary than not pumping fuel into your SUVs tank?


Am I missing something? After ALL the evidence of the past few years, WHY oh WHY aren't middle income (and above) people:

a). Cutting back on non-necessities?
b). Saving like it's AS SERIOUS AS A HEART ATTACK (because if you lose your job, it is)?
c). Repeating A and B until it HURTS, to protect their families from economic disaster?

...

I guess either they're stupid, or assume that the left will bail them out with endless social programs like unending unemployment insurance.

I think they're stupid. I wish them luck expecting the government to save them for any meaningful length of time. The reality falls far short of the promises on that front.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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OUR TOP STORY THIS MORNING

Unread postby babystrangeloop » Fri 01 Jul 2011, 07:32:03

No IEA oil has been released.

Thank you and have a pleasant day.



In related news.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Oil drops over $US1 on China data
Reuters / July 1, 2011

LONDON - Brent crude oil slipped over $US1 to around $US111 a barrel after China's factory output grew at its slowest pace in 28 months, and the market eyed tenders for the IEA's emergency oil stocks releases.


http://youtu.be/HgE41B3JQF8
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Saudi Arabia: One-time ‘swing producer’ becomes ‘swayed prod

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 06 Feb 2018, 11:12:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
© Getty Images Oil prices have reached the $70-a-barrel mark, their highest since December 2014, but neither Saudi Arabia nor Russia is shouting with glee. That’s because it remains to be seen whether the oil market has achieved price stability for awhile. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih this month spoke of the "fragility of the market." He noted that a much-anticipated initial public offering of Saudi Aramco stock will take place “when the time is right,” but declined to say about whether the IPO could be postponed to 2019. OPEC and non-OPEC powers such as Russia worked out a volume-cut deal last year that has played a key role in boosting prices. Al-Falih emphasized the importance of the deal, and hinted that it ought to be extended beyond 2018. But Russia has shown little enthusiasm for extending it. Earlier this month, Russian Energy Minister Novak broached


Saudi Arabia: One-time ‘swing producer’ becomes ‘swayed producer’ of oil
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 07:28:13

I do not see any advantage for Russia in flooding the world oil market and losing income on every barrel of oil they sell into another glut. Perhaps I am missing something. They may be as short sighted as all those folks that ran right out and bought an SUV in mid 2015 when prices fell below $60/bbl. Everyone knows the USA government is unable to plan more than 2 years into the future maximum and often much less.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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