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THE Recession Thread pt 2 (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
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Re: Manufacturing falls off cliff, US in recession again?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 28 Jun 2011, 10:57:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'B')ut I did notice that you aren't quoting GDP changes, just manufacturing. Has the definition of recession changed, or are you just getting out in front of the curve, based on limited data?


Well shucks you're right, I've added a ? mark as a qualifier.

Technical definition of a recession, from Wiki:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.').economic statistician Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb for defining a recession, one of which was "two down quarters of GDP".[3] In time, the other rules of thumb were forgotten.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession


But you know what, the term "recession" just means pullback from a prior benchmark -- it doesn't really have anything to do with whether an economy is healthy. You could have a new normal of pathetically anemic GDP growth combined with stubborn unemployment and yet still not technically meet the criteria for "recession." But that doesn't mean the economy or society is healthy.

Have a look at Shadowstats alternate unemployment (the blue line):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-emp.gif?hl=ad&t=1307108139[/img]
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts


No matter how you look at that graph, you could hold it sideways and squint and tap your toes.. fact is the economy has been sick since 2008 and it never got better. We've only manged to get worse at a slower pace, and that's after what at least a trillion injected between Congress and the Fed.

Getting back to GDP, let's have a look at Shadowstats' data (the blue line):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-gdp.gif?hl=ad&t=[/img]
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts


The long term trend line here since 1983 is obvious. Anyhow if you use this alternate data, then yes we're in recession because real GDP growth has been negative for a year now. By the way, here's how shadowstats arrives at their alternate data:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he SGS-Alternate GDP reflects the inflation-adjusted, or real, year-to-year GDP change, adjusted for distortions in government inflation usage and methodological changes that have resulted in a built-in upside bias to official reporting.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts


If you want to use official (fudged) numbers then we can't really have a discussion. And if you don't think the manufacturing report in the OP is recessionary then explain to me how it really means economic expansion. Hopefully Oilfinder will pop in here too and give us his positive spin. :-D
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Re: Manufacturing falls off cliff, US in recession again?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 28 Jun 2011, 11:34:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'A')nyhow if you use this alternate data, then yes we're in recession because real GDP growth has been negative for a year now.

Actually Six, aside from that little poke above 0% in '04, that last chart shows SS saying we've been in contraction since the big party in 1999 or so.

Even if you use SS numbers though it seems a pretty silly way to measure anything considering the stock market, real estate, pension funds etc are all way down from 2000 and debt is up.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Manufacturing falls off cliff, US in recession again?

Unread postby AdTheNad » Tue 28 Jun 2011, 11:58:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'A')ctually Six, aside from that little poke above 0% in '04, that last chart shows SS saying we've been in contraction since the big party in 1999 or so.

Then you think about using real GDP per capita and even that little rally in 04 probably didn't get quite above 0%. Good job GDP is a stupid metric to use - bad job it's what we try and increase no matter the other costs.
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Re: Manufacturing falls off cliff, US in recession again?

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 28 Jun 2011, 12:28:14

GDP wasn't intended to measure the health of an economy. It's a flawed stat because borrowing money doesn't mean growth.
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Re: Manufacturing falls off cliff, US in recession again?

Unread postby Pops » Wed 29 Jun 2011, 07:31:54

Correct, Joplin Mo for example will see a huge spike in GDP this year.
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Re: Manufacturing falls off cliff, US now in recession again

Unread postby Loki » Wed 29 Jun 2011, 16:34:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')Well, first of all I wasn't aware the last recession ever ended. Guess I didn't get the memo.


Some probably never knew there was one. Those who have a stable J.O.B. being the prime culprits I imagine.

By that measure the 1930s Depression didn't happen either, at least not for the majority of Americans since they had a J.O.B.

You sir are an economics genius. I'll be submitting your name to the Nobel committee.
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Re: Manufacturing falls off cliff, US in recession again?

Unread postby annalynB » Wed 13 Jul 2011, 02:29:35

As the economic downturn continues, investment becomes more and more attractive in industries which benefit from tough times. Recession makes stocks rise in some industries such as Pawn brokers, payday loan lenders, debt collectors and low cost shops. But weak job growth is "a call to arms" for policymakers to take steps to reinvigorate the private sector. The number of people living below the poverty line has risen to one in seven, the highest since 1994. Consumer spending has dropped for two months in a row. Times are hard, and nobody knows if or when they will get better.
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I dream of recession...

Unread postby Pops » Tue 27 Sep 2011, 19:02:07

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC19fEqR5bA

H/T Zero Hedge

"Be prepared... act now."
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: I dream of recession...

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 27 Sep 2011, 21:39:07

"Never let a crisis go to waste"

--Rahm Emmanual
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama
-----------------------------------------------------------
Keep running between the raindrops.
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Re: I dream of recession...

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Tue 27 Sep 2011, 22:05:23

The correct quote is not "I dream of recession..." but rather "I dream of another recession..." (@ 1:20)
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Re: I dream of recession...

Unread postby papa moose » Tue 27 Sep 2011, 22:19:24

Follow-up interview with Mr Rastani.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/who-is-alessio-rastani-20110928-1kw8a.html
"That really annoying person you know, the one who's always spouting bullshit, the person who always thinks they're right?
Well, the odds are that for somebody else, you're that person.
So take the amount you think you know, reduce it by 99.999%, and then you'll have an idea of how much you actually know..."
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Re: I dream of recession...

Unread postby Novus » Tue 27 Sep 2011, 22:41:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', 'T')he correct quote is not "I dream of recession..." but rather "I dream of another recession..." (@ 1:20)


In order for it to be another recession the previous recession would have to have ended. The first recession never ended. This is the next leg down in the ongoing "Greater Depression."
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Re: I dream of recession...

Unread postby Novus » Tue 27 Sep 2011, 23:53:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'h')ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC19fEqR5bA

H/T Zero Hedge

"Be prepared... act now."


This guys is about 4 years too late on this "Be prepared ...act now" message. Time was to act "Now" was in 2007.


The Big message that relevant is now in 2011 is this: "The leaders here don't rule the world anymore. Goldman Sachs rules the world and they don't care about the European bailout package."

The world wide financial Coup is nearly complete.
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Re: I dream of recession...

Unread postby papa moose » Wed 28 Sep 2011, 00:34:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'T')he world wide financial Coup is nearly complete.


Please hold off until at least the 24th October so that the World Coup can be completed. 8O
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Re: I dream of recession...

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 28 Sep 2011, 00:36:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'h')ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC19fEqR5bA

H/T Zero Hedge

"Be prepared... act now."


You know what.. wouldn't it be very bizarre if Europe crashes hard and the US comes out ahead? (relatively)

For the foreseeable future, the paradigm is still Pax Americana and the world still buys our bonds for safety. Our dollar and bonds are coin of the realm.

Don't mean to sound cornucopian here, just saying I'm seeing this as a possibility.. a temporary upswing period of years IF Europe falls hard.

EDIT: some interesting quotes from the video.. "the governments don't rule the world, Goldman Sachs does" and "in less the 12 months millions will lose their life savings, get ready for this".. other than that he's a trader and notes that recessions, crashes, depressions are a money making opportunity.
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Re: I dream of recession...

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Wed 28 Sep 2011, 03:22:28

[It's nice to know that the GOP strategy of creating a new economic crisis every month or so has fans.
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Re: I dream of recession...

Unread postby Cog » Wed 28 Sep 2011, 10:08:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', '[')It's nice to know that the GOP strategy of creating a new economic crisis every month or so has fans.


The real crisis is believing you can print and borrow money without consequences.
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Re: I dream of recession...

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Wed 28 Sep 2011, 16:01:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', 'I')t's nice to know that the GOP strategy of creating a new economic crisis every month or so has fans.

The real crisis is believing you can print and borrow money without consequences.
Last week had some pretty good consequences for the precious metals crowd.
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Re: I dream of recession...

Unread postby Cog » Wed 28 Sep 2011, 16:41:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', 'I')t's nice to know that the GOP strategy of creating a new economic crisis every month or so has fans.

The real crisis is believing you can print and borrow money without consequences.
Last week had some pretty good consequences for the precious metals crowd.


I'm glad I'm not one of them. I hear that brass and lead futures are looking promising though. :lol:

Preston the corny, who would have ever thought it. :shock:
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