[sparky]

.
Same here , I sunk solid , Ohh well maybe next year will be early , so to speak

[Revi]

It's early, but my prediction of $157 may not happen this year without some big unrest in the oil markets.

We'll see. I'm not betting on it this year.

[sparky]

.
There is a forecast for a very tight supply ..." next year "
but that's assuming there is some growth
so far the only growth is coming from Chinese millions of new drivers
the Beijing government has its hands full getting , and keeping ,enough gasoline
to feed the 14 millions extra cars registered last year , on top of the 62 millions registered vehicles .
with the statistics lag ,as of june 2011 the total number cannot be too far from 100 millions

[SeaGypsy]

Any update for the end of may?
I am still reasonably confident of my ceiling price; the bottom may be tougher and higher than my $77.70 bet.
The next few months with the US driving season approaching could push things either way, there has to be an element of demand destruction in unemployment stats. It's easy enough to drive less, but heating the home is at least somewhat mandatory.
As to Sparky's millions of extra cars in China etc. I have mentioned this before and will again, car ownership is more of a status symbol in China and Asia generally than a necessary fact of life as in the USA. People very often drive scooters to save on fuel, even when a car is parked out front.

[PeakOiler]

The EIA will release their data this Thursday for the end of May.

Meanwhile, the leaders by percentage of time they were in first place (as of 24-May) are:
Daniel_Plainview 30%
TheDude 24%
no_name 18%
Midessa 13%
Cog 8%
kublikhan 5%
OilFinder2 2%

[SeaGypsy]

Yeah but that's not the competition, is it. The game is in the end about the end of the year, not average over the year, else it's a new game. If that's the case it should have been stated at the beginning, which it wasn't.
Interesting anyway, thanks peakoiler.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'Y')eah but that's not the competition, is it. The game is in the end about the end of the year, not average over the year, else it's a new game. If that's the case it should have been stated at the beginning, which it wasn't.
Interesting anyway, thanks peakoiler.

[Cog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'Y')eah but that's not the competition, is it. The game is in the end about the end of the year, not average over the year, else it's a new game. If that's the case it should have been stated at the beginning, which it wasn't.
Interesting anyway, thanks peakoiler.

[PeakOiler]

The latest scorecard:



Reminder: If anyone wants a copy of the Excel workbook, send me a PM.

[jdmartin]

I'm sinkin' like heavy crude Actually I'm only down about 3 places from my high. Unless things get pretty crazy, I'm not going to get anywhere near my high prediction.

[Revi]

We're going to be seeing the price go down for a while as Greece sinks.
That upsets the Euro, which strengthens the US dollar and takes the price of oil down.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')e're going to be seeing the price go down for a while as Greece sinks.
That upsets the Euro, which strengthens the US dollar and takes the price of oil down.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'I')'m not so sure, Brent's almost $120 right now and rising!

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')e're going to be seeing the price go down for a while as Greece sinks.
That upsets the Euro, which strengthens the US dollar and takes the price of oil down.

[PeakOiler]

TheDude has had the #1 spot five of the last six Wednesday closing prices while WTI varies in the range of ~$93-$99. No need for another scorecard yet. Halftime is almost here and I'll post another scorecard then.

I wonder if there will be any other "shocks to the system" in the second half?

[jdmartin]

I don't know, but I've got my Rainbow glasses on

[kublikhan]

Have we decided if we want to go with WTI or Brent next year? I could really care less which one we use, but I think we should pick one or the other. It keeps things simple to have one price challenge and there is more prestige to have one winner rather than a "grammy awards for peak oil prediction" where we have one award for WTI , one for brent, one in Rubles, one in Gold ounces, etc.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'H')ave we decided if we want to go with WTI or Brent next year? I could really care less which one we use, but I think we should pick one or the other. It keeps things simple to have one price challenge and there is more prestige to have one winner rather than a "grammy awards for peak oil prediction" where we have one award for WTI , one for brent, one in Rubles, one in Gold ounces, etc.

[kublikhan]

Doh, my bad. I forgot about that post. WTI works for me

[PeakOiler]

The scorecard as of June 28:



I might add that TheAntiDoomer held the #1 spot for three days this last week while WTI was around $90. Here are the "free throw" stats, that is, the percentage that each leader has held the #1 spot in 2011:

TheDude 38/123 = 31%
Daniel_Plainview 30/123 = 24%
no_name 25/123 = 20%
Midessa 13/123 = 11%
Cog 7/123 = 6%
kublikhan 4/123 = 4%
TheAntiDoomer 3/123 = 2.4%
OilFinder2 2/123 = 1.6%

123 refers to the number of days that the EIA reported WTI data this year. The number of days does not include weekends or holidays.