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You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby smiley » Sun 29 May 2011, 17:08:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pops', 'W')hat a ridiculous thing to say

Have you ever been hungry?


With due respect, have you,... ever?

I think there are very few people in the Western world that are able to answer that question with a yes, with the exception of those who have been in German or Japanese prison camps (or a Swiss health Spa).

- Given the fact that the average Westerner takes in almost twice the amount of calories necessary for survival,
- Given the fact that we throw away a tremendous amount of food (25% sounds about right)
- Given the fact that we plainly refuse to eat a lot of nutrients that are available to us
- And lastly the fact that we already manage to import (extort) a lot of food from countries which have severe food problems themselves,

Even with oil becoming scarse I think that the entire population of the world will be starving before we skip a single meal.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 29 May 2011, 17:14:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '[')Even with oil becoming scarse I think that the entire population of the world will be starving before we skip a single meal.

With our balance of payments and rapidly growing federal debt I don't see why anyone in America should feel confident about that.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Sun 29 May 2011, 20:29:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o you have any idea how fossil fuel intensive modern agriculture is? Unless you are envisioning some sort of return to using animals and people working from dawn to dusk doing stoop labor to survive. Even then, how does a cube dweller go from running a computer to managing a team of oxen?


A hundred years ago farmers used to reserve about 20 percent of their fields for grass and grain to feed their horses.
Today some farmers have already started reserving 20 percent of their fields for oil crops to run their diesel tractors. It isn't widespread, but it is being done. Which proves what I have always claimed - that farmers show more ingenuity and planning in their work than any other vocational field.
We won't starve unless the food we grow is reserved for export or can only be afforded by the rich.

8O If twenty percent of current production farmland is diverted to raising farm fuel requirements then twenty percent of the worlds population (approximately 1.5 billion people) will starve. Might happen sooner then we think?

Could be, but I believe we would start riding bicycles and using mass transit before we cut off all fuel to the ag sector. Or at least I hope that.
Have to wait and see.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Pretorian » Sun 29 May 2011, 22:16:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '
')- And lastly the fact that we already manage to import (extort) a lot of food from countries which have severe food problems themselves,




and what that might be-- cacao beans or something? I doubt there is any food out there cheaper than American grains and soy.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby smiley » Mon 30 May 2011, 13:56:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')nd what that might be-- cacao beans or something?


I wasn't talking about the US specific, but of the west as a whole, but that does not matter. If you look at the world food market you'll find some unlikely exporters. Countries who have problems feeding their own polulation but still devote a large acreage to export products just to make a buck.

For instance Chili is the world leading supplier of aspargus, and a major supplier of wine. Ethiopia is a very big supplier of non-seasonal vegetables. Kenia a large fish exporter. If you look at the fruit, cacao, coffee, tobacco and other markets I bet you'll see similar things.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith our balance of payments and rapidly growing federal debt I don't see why anyone in America should feel confident about that.


I'm sure that when things get that desperate the US could always have a garage sale at the Pentagon. I bet the Chinese are willing to trade a lot of rice for the USS George HW Bush :-D
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Pretorian » Mon 30 May 2011, 16:29:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')nd what that might be-- cacao beans or something?


I wasn't talking about the US specific, but of the west as a whole, but that does not matter. If you look at the world food market you'll find some unlikely exporters. Countries who have problems feeding their own polulation but still devote a large acreage to export products just to make a buck.

For instance Chili is the world leading supplier of aspargus, and a major supplier of wine. Ethiopia is a very big supplier of non-seasonal vegetables. Kenia a large fish exporter.


Are you suggesting they would be better off by feeding local yokels fish, asparagus and non-seasonal vegetables? Or that that acreage would give them more corn and beans than US will give them for that asparagus and fish? Seriously?
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Pops » Mon 30 May 2011, 17:28:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pops', 'W')hat a ridiculous thing to say

Have you ever been hungry?


With due respect, have you,... ever?

http://www.worldhunger.org/articles/Lea ... _facts.htm
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Fishman » Mon 30 May 2011, 19:44:08

Two errors in this thread at present. Initial post discussed corn crop, no corn in europe at that time. It was only a North and South American crop at time.
Second error, Cid posted about Lot and Republicans, couldn't have happened, Lot was a "clinger" of his religion, as Obama would have called him. Cid, everyone knows Dems despise people of faith (well not Muslims that blow themselves and others up, Dems seem enchanted by that group)

As to the famine, yes people starved, distribution of food has been at least one of the great outcomes of the oil age. Cheap food can/could get anywhere. Up until that time you ate predominantly what was grown locally.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Mon 30 May 2011, 21:06:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')wo errors in this thread at present. Initial post discussed corn crop, no corn in europe at that time. It was only a North and South American crop at time.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corn_(disambiguation)

Corn is the name used in the United States, Canada, and Australia for the grain maize.

In much of the world, the term "corn" is a generic term for local cereal crops, such as Wheat, Barley and Oats. :)
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby radon » Tue 31 May 2011, 02:23:47

Russia Lifting Grain-Export Ban May Fail to Alleviate Global Crop Shortage

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ussian grain plantings climbed 10 percent to 24 million hectares (59 million acres) and the government has more than 6 million tons of grain in reserves...

Farmers worldwide will reap 667 million tons of wheat in 2011-2012, trailing demand of 669 million tons, the International Grains Council said May 26. The agency pared its production estimate from 672 million tons in April, cutting stockpiles to 185 million tons, the lowest since 2008-2009.
...

In the U.S., the world’s largest wheat shipper, about 45 percent of the winter wheat crop was in very poor or poor condition as of May 22, compared with 44 percent a week earlier, and 9 percent a year earlier, the USDA said May 23. About 54 percent of the U.S. spring-wheat was planted, behind last year’s pace of 89 percent, also the average in the past five years.
France’s soft-wheat crop, the European Union’s largest, will drop 12 percent, and German output will slide 7.2 percent, local forecasters said May 18.
...
About 124 million tons of the 670.5 million tons of wheat demand in 2011-2012 is intended for feed and the rest for food, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said May 11.
...
In Canada, planting was also delayed by excessive rains. About 53 percent of the crop was planted, trailing the normal pace of 75 percent, the Canadian Wheat Board said May 24. By contrast, Russia’s Agriculture Ministry estimates the total grain harvest may be 85 million to 90 million tons, up from 60.9 million tons last year.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-30/russia-lifting-grain-export-ban-as-drought-floods-ruin-europe-u-s-crops.html
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Revi » Tue 31 May 2011, 09:11:00

I read about the Swedish famines in the 1600's. Some of them were caused by the king, to punish parts of the country that rose up against him. They resorted to eating the bark of trees ground into flour many times. There's a reason they moved to the US and Canada. The potato famine is the most recent example of a famine in the west, and they had a place to go to. This time there may not be a place where hungry people are welcome.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Fishman » Tue 31 May 2011, 14:56:07

Agreed Tyler. cereal crop more descriptive
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Loki » Wed 01 Jun 2011, 21:25:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fishman', 'A')greed Tyler. cereal crop more descriptive

Corn is what they called cereal crops in 14th-century Europe. I believe American usage of the word "corn" is fairly unique. IIRC most people around the world call it maize. The article I quoted was by a British historian.

See Fishman, ya learn something new everyday. You're welcome.
Last edited by Loki on Wed 01 Jun 2011, 21:38:42, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Loki » Wed 01 Jun 2011, 21:35:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o you have any idea how fossil fuel intensive modern agriculture is? Unless you are envisioning some sort of return to using animals and people working from dawn to dusk doing stoop labor to survive. Even then, how does a cube dweller go from running a computer to managing a team of oxen?


A hundred years ago farmers used to reserve about 20 percent of their fields for grass and grain to feed their horses.
Today some farmers have already started reserving 20 percent of their fields for oil crops to run their diesel tractors. It isn't widespread, but it is being done. Which proves what I have always claimed - that farmers show more ingenuity and planning in their work than any other vocational field.
We won't starve unless the food we grow is reserved for export or can only be afforded by the rich.

8O If twenty percent of current production farmland is diverted to raising farm fuel requirements then twenty percent of the worlds population (approximately 1.5 billion people) will starve. Might happen sooner then we think?

The math isn't quite so simple/simplistic. Areas that currently use animal labor are already setting aside significant portions of their farmland for their animals. The farmers that would be using biodiesel would, I'd guess, be overwhelmingly in the US Midwest.

I don't think it should be the USA's job to "feed the world," especially when that "world" is increasing at an exponential rate (see Overpopulation thread). I'd like to see us vastly reduce how much food we export---this would open up plenty of land for farmers to grow their own biodiesel for their tractors, which I think is a wonderful thing to do, far better than going back to oxen and horses.

As for Smiley's claim that the west imports tons of food from impoverished countries that need it, that's probably true for Europe (grossly overpopulated given their limited farmland), not so much for the US, which exports FAR more food than we import. But I wouldn't mind seeing strict limits on food imports here in the US, it would help US farmers and move Third World farmers away from export-oriented, chemically dependent monocultures.
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