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No more insights to be gleaned

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby Pops » Thu 26 May 2011, 14:55:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'C')ontinuing to surf these websites that point out these already known truths is not going to do it. Sorry. So what is your game plan?


Learn to type faster, you changed the subject while I was pecking out my last response! :lol:

The overall economic situation, scary government actions and PO prompted us to move up our retirement plans years ago - it wasn't some big bug-out, it just happened that moving to RFD suited us and the timing was right. So I'm about as transitioned as I'm gonna get, just watchin the show now.

That said, I am skeptical, naw, I'll be honest, I laugh at anyone who thinks they posses the truth.

This time a year ago we were about 2 weeks in to seeing pre-salt oil - the next big thing in sorta-conventional oil, going up in a plume in the GOM. Deepwater was the new thing in light weight oil and supposed to make up a big part of the Yet-To-Be-Discovered area on the charts. It hasn't yet recovered and may not for quite a while, and when it does it'll be even more expensive.

Ditto on what Hubbert saw as the only real solution to peak oil when the Japanese Nukes went up in a puff of radioactive vapor a couple of months ago. That source of power had lots of people just itching to plug in their PEVs, PESilverados, PETractors, PEAirliners and whatall but that form of Too-Cheap-To-Meter may not be the plum from the Energy Fairy's Bum after all.

Here we sit today with oil at $100 and the economy either about to break out or break down, and I gotta wonder, is this the beginning of the new economy that can be independent of expensive energy or the threshold where we take the next GDP face-plant?


So you have all those and a thousand more figured out?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 26 May 2011, 15:17:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'W')hen is the last time you really read a worthwhile post on this site or any other peak oil related site? Let's include the Oil Drum and JMG's Archdruid site as well. ...Time to move on?


For me, po.com is an oasis ... an oasis away from the MSM disinformation machine ... an oasis away from the various govt's efforts to deceive and shroud the truth ... an oasis where I can interact with like-minded people.

When you've been in a desert wandering aimlessly for dozens of years among the Sheeple, and you happen upon a thriving oasis, you stick with it. No oasis is perfect, and no oasis provides all of your nourishment. On balance, I give po.com a thumbs-up.
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby radon » Thu 26 May 2011, 16:26:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')t's quite possible the USA can go it alone.

--The USA does have plenty of natural resources and a somewhat manageable population/arable land ratio.
--is isolated (except from Mexico/Central America),
--has a huge army,
--lots of material wealth already tied up (but still available) in mined/smelted/refined metals, modern concrete buildings, assemblies, sub-assemblies (framing lumber, steel beams, concrete slabs)
--happy content people


All valid points, also showing that sometimes being a doomer is not too bad after all.
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 26 May 2011, 19:08:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drgoodword', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'W')hat about those "resource wars" those peakers were predicting?

All I'm seeing is "rebellions" by "pro-democracy, pro-US" forces against evil dictators who don't play nice with IOCs.


The U.S. has spent over one trillion dollars over the past ten years invading and occupying two formerly sovereign nations in the most important oil region in the world. I'd say the resource wars are in full swing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'H')ave you not been reading newspapers or even listening to bbc?? Other than oil, is there any reason at all that we'd give two hoots about what a bunch of backward people do to each other in their desolate sand pits. These are them. I count Iraq, Afghanistan, and Lybia as current hot zones; and a few others with somewhat less Western involvement are simmering along.

If yall thought a resource war would involve the US and China exchanging nukes... well... BAAAAAAAAAAAAA! Wrong answer.

Of course I suspect these are resource wars, but there are questions that I haven't seen discussed on PO.com.
What is the objective:
- to be able to turn off the taps to China?
- to open up countries to US corporations?
- to make the ruling regimes dependent on buying US weapons and training to stay in power?
- other???

Whatever it is doesn't seem cost effective. Are they failing to achieve their objectives?

So far we have not seen much outright theft of resources, except in Palestine, a few $billion of Iraq oil revenues and the recent move to transfer Libyan assets to the NATO backed regime in Benghazi.
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 26 May 2011, 19:11:39

A Spirit told me......

Worry for others

Pray for everyone

Forgive your transgressors

Hope for a brighter future. :)
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby Pops » Thu 26 May 2011, 19:21:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I', 'I') laugh at anyone who thinks they posses the truth.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')his is peak oil now for real and I am not making this stuff up. Trust me.


:lol:

.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 26 May 2011, 19:28:08

At least we still are @ the Peak. :-D
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 26 May 2011, 19:29:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'W')hat is the objective:
- to be able to turn off the taps to China?
- to open up countries to US corporations?
- to make the ruling regimes dependent on buying US weapons and training to stay in power?
- other???


You're thinking way too domestically. Oil is a global market, and its fungible, it doesn't matter who buys which, as long as it is priced in a more or less open market. Its perfectly fine for China to buy as much of it as they want. It'd be nice if a US Corp does the extraction or refining, but its not a *big* deal. Weapons sales are nice, we sell good stuff; but it sucks to know that what we sell, we can easily kill.

No, the reason is simple.

Keep the general oil market as the only acceptable place to buy and sell oil in quantity.
Insure that no individual producing twit gets too full of themselves such that they might make noise to disrupt line 1.

There is also a bit of testing the waters, China's words mean little, you can only measure their actions; so the only way to figure out their position is to irritate them, but just a little.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hatever it is doesn't seem cost effective. Are they failing to achieve their objectives?


Objectives look solidly in line to me. Oil remains largely traded only in dollars, despite the fact that we just printed a trillion or so of the silly things for fun.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o far we have not seen much outright theft of resources, except in Palestine, a few $billion of Iraq oil revenues and the recent move to transfer Libyan assets to the NATO backed regime in Benghazi.


We don't want to not pay for it; we want to pay for it with something we can print.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby efarmer » Thu 26 May 2011, 20:04:13

Have you noticed how cranky all of us folks are who did not get ruptured and called up yonder
last Saturday. I think the only one missing from here since the end of the world last Saturday
is Schweinshaxe.
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 26 May 2011, 22:03:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'S')o perhaps this thread should be about exploring what being ahead of the curve represents today at this point of the time line?

I'll start with a supposition and an assumption. Our global human population is going to go very clumsy into the post peak oil world. Not with any real consensus or intelligent planning. Nevertheless this clumsy approach will still result in a transition, slowly through time and the decades that follow. Ugly and messy but none the less advancing. This probably represents the middle of the road opinion between the extreme doomer and extreme cornucopian camp.

If you agree with this assumption then what is the game plan or contrarian strategy today if you want to have an edge? Is wanting to have an edge part of the problem or part the solution? Answering this philosophically wont help. Contemplating this within the known way humans behave is far wiser. In that sense all humans are innately survivalists and will look for an edge.

Continuing to surf these websites that point out these already known truths is not going to do it. Sorry. So what is your game plan?


OK I'll bite, but first a word......

I think that there is still value in this site for a couple of reasons.
1. I don't have TV and walk to work so this is my best site for news I find of value. Even BBC and CSM have too much nonsense for me to sort through. The folks here do a pretty good job of reviewing the news and bringing it to the fore.
2. For the camaraderie. Where else can one go and talk about these issues? A few months ago it seemed the site was doomed by trolls, but lately they seem to have gone quiet. Funding running out? Anyway, it seems much nicer of late.

I have talked here a few times about my strategy, it is not very interesting to most here. So it is hard for me to use this site to hone in my theories. But still we get gems, like the observation back a couple of posts that the airlines are the most fuel intensive industry and will be a canary in the coal mine. That was helpful.

My 'game plan' is not 'mine' it is 'ours' and thus it is a compromise. It requires us being able to figure out things are amiss a couple of days in advance in order to get out of town. Where would I be able to get such a warning? Surly not from the MSM, but here? Perhaps.

I agree that the downward road will be bumpy and irregular. But, it may also have some pretty massive pot holes, sudden shifts and adjustments. Right now we simply don't know. Our collective minds working on the problems will help keep us informed of how things are developing.

No, I see great value in this on-going conversation even if it is not terribly profound at any one time. We are keeping the lines of communication open. That is important.
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Nothing is ever lost by courtesy. It is the the cheapest of pleasures, costs nothing, and conveys much. E Wiman
I know there’s no solution, so I just enjoy what’s here and I enjoy the journey G Carlin
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Fri 27 May 2011, 01:50:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'W')e don't want to not pay for it; we want to pay for it with something we can print.

Oh, yeah, the dollar thing. That works as long as people think they need to hold lots of $US to buy oil, but I think they are figuring out that it's smarter to hold gold or Swiss franks and go to the moneychanger for $US when they want to buy oil.

Even if I believed in the magickal petrodollar theory, I don't think it works in the long term, since the cost of empire and military madness is trashing the dollar.
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 27 May 2011, 03:55:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'C')ontinuing to surf these websites that point out these already known truths is not going to do it. Sorry. So what is your game plan?


Learn to type faster, you changed the subject while I was pecking out my last response! :lol:

The overall economic situation, scary government actions and PO prompted us to move up our retirement plans years ago - it wasn't some big bug-out, it just happened that moving to RFD suited us and the timing was right. So I'm about as transitioned as I'm gonna get, just watchin the show now.

That said, I am skeptical, naw, I'll be honest, I laugh at anyone who thinks they posses the truth.



Here we sit today with oil at $100 and the economy either about to break out or break down, and I gotta wonder, is this the beginning of the new economy that can be independent of expensive energy or the threshold where we take the next GDP face-plant?


So you have all those and a thousand more figured out?


This is exactly the point I was trying to address rather than questioning the value of this site which many of you defended quite well. There are no more insights to be gleaned that will help you figure out where we are headed. Are we about to break out or break down? I don't know.

I think it is really hard for a lot of folks to accept the path forward being shrouded in mist. It is easier for example to believe in a conspiracy for at least that is an explanation that puts the blame still within human control. It's just some bad apples causing the problem. It's also easier to choose an outcome that is fixed in either a doomer (break down) or cornucopian (break out) point of view.

It really was a rush years ago being ahead of the curve when the initial insight of peak oil and related systemic weaknesses came into sharp focus.

The future however is not in sharp focus but very much blurred. Accepting this perhaps defines what being ahead of the curve is today. I wouldn't waste too much time surfing from site to site trying to glean truths and insights in order to lift the fog of the unknown.

Live with the unknown. That is as much of a rush as those very first insights you had years ago about peak oil.

So I rest my case. And thank you all for helping me clarify that :)

Which of course just reconfirms how wonderful this site is at times...........
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 27 May 2011, 04:02:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'T')ime to move on?
Peak oil has been a pretty incredible journey for me.


A journey that is ongoing to say the least!
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby drgoodword » Fri 27 May 2011, 05:50:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'O')f course I suspect these are resource wars, but there are questions that I haven't seen discussed on PO.com.

What is the objective:
- to be able to turn off the taps to China?
- to open up countries to US corporations?
- to make the ruling regimes dependent on buying US weapons and training to stay in power?
- other???


One of the best capsule explanations I've come across regarding the realpolitik motives behind America's invasions and occupations of Afghanistan & Iraq is this quasi-fictional scene from Oliver Stone's Bush biopic, "W". While this exact conversation never took place in Bush's top level meetings, discussions very similar to it probably did. And it's an excellent summary of what critics like Chalmers Johnson and Noam Chomsky have been saying about the last decade of American foriegn policy.
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 27 May 2011, 06:21:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '2'). For the camaraderie. Where else can one go and talk about these issues?


Yeah this site has always been just about right.. just enough people to have discussions, but not so many posters that it becomes a crowd. Kind of like the internet in the old days.

Nowdays seems like everybody wants to give their two cents on every issue.. local paper websites have comments, and of course sites like HuffPost where you get 10,000 comments sometimes. How can anyone have a conversation in the middle of that, it's like shouting in the wind.

Poor Zerohedge is a bit swamped these days with too many comments.. just an endless scroll of comments, when probably 1/3 are saying the same thing another 1/3 are "rally on Bitchez" quips and then another third are arguing with each other but you can't even follow the arguments cuz one article has a thousand comments.

So, why are we here? Beats the heck out of me. To me it's a bit of a support group of mostly like-minded folks. The rest of the world out there still thinks the economy is "recovering." The sheeple are pretty much clueless on every topic that's discussed on this forum. I can't go to more politically-oriented sites because they're all partisan.. they're incapable of thinking outside the box, groupthink is strictly enforced, and it's all shilling for the party line anyway.

For oil issues, I guess Oil Drum is the last game in town other than this site. And it's dry and boring as rawhide, I only go over there if I need a sleep aid.

So yes I guess the OP is right and there aren't any new insights to be gained.. we're sort of in a cooperative "seeing where the chips fall" phase. We comment on developments as they happen, sometimes our previous worldview is confirmed. Sometimes I'm surprised.. like how Facebook and Twitter (of all things) has proven able to fan the flames of multi-nation revolution within hours, days, and weeks. Sometimes we have to adjust our worldview. Like oil price developments, we now have to admit that speculation / monetary issues are big component.

If we're crashing it's clearly a slow crash.. no more World Made Get By Hand This Summer.. although coffee did go up another 11% couple days ago.. one of the big brands up a whopping 50%.

That's the dichotomy going on.. clearly something ain't right here, the price of coffee is shooting up in between shopping trips, and we on this forum discuss what's causing this crumbling of the West. Is it because of peak oil? Globalism? End stage capitalism / limits to growth? Maybe all the above.
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 27 May 2011, 06:33:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'W')hat? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!

I hope, you meant Japanese...

And it is not over.
It is just beginning...
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Re: No more insights to be gleaned

Unread postby Pops » Fri 27 May 2011, 06:54:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '.').. Yeah?

Yeah.
:)
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