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German exports at all time record

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German exports at all time record

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 09 May 2011, 18:22:06

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13330882

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')erman exports surged in March to their highest level since records began, as the growing global economy lifted demand for its products and services.

The country's exports for the month totalled 98.3bn euros ($142bn; £87bn), 7.3% higher than February.

Its imports also reached an all-time high, up 3.1% to 79.4bn euros. Both imports and exports are the most since data started to be collected in 1950.

Only China exports more than the European nation, and the latest monthly figure for German exports was much higher than market expectations.
Offcourse take the huge amounts of state deficits from round the world out the global economy and no one is looking to rosey, but the story here is that it is still possible to be a western manufacturing nation.

Just so long as your politicians, workers and companies are German.
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Re: German exports at all time record

Unread postby radon » Mon 09 May 2011, 19:45:37

Also, building friendly relationships and locking in bilateral energy agreements:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]http://russia-media.ru/energy/images/imgmly7jl.jpg[/img]


while others are busy waving their shiny swords all over the world,

and demonstrating the political will to at least attempt to realize a comprehensive non-fossil fuel energy policy.

A role model of the moment.
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Re: German exports at all time record

Unread postby cipi604 » Tue 10 May 2011, 15:40:44

In Germany I would love to continue my career in engineering :roll:
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Re: German exports at all time record

Unread postby cephalotus » Tue 10 May 2011, 18:46:18

I'm an engineer in the German energy sector and it doesn't look to bad in this times :-)

It is said that unemployment rate in 2011 will be the lowest since reunification. Of course there are now also more low paid jobs, so not everything is perfect...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/ ... QZ20110428

The German Finance Ministry expects that tax revenue across all level of governments will be E19 billion higher this year than estimated in November...

http://imarketnews.com/?q=node/30438

Even the weather is nice this spring :-)

In my opinion I would like to see higher (sic!) taxes in consumption, energy and/or CO2 to repay our national dept and give more money to municipalities.

Btw, we now pay around 1,60 Euro/l gasoline, that's around 8,30 US$ / gallon and it looks like the people get easily used to it. I assume that even 200-300 US$/barrel wouldn't hurt us to badly at least in the moment.

PS: Only a few years ago Germany was the "sick man of Europe" and the people in Ireland and Iceland got richer and richer. Things can change very quickly, so in 3 years it may look very different again
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Re: German exports at all time record

Unread postby bratticus » Wed 11 May 2011, 21:54:31

Best friends?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The Peak Oil Crisis: Peak Oil Elasticity
By Tom Whipple / FCNP / May 4, 2011

... last week the Kremlin banned gasoline and diesel exports from Russia to alleviate domestic shortages sending gasoline prices in Germany to a record $9.10 a gallon.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Russia Running on Empty
Kostis Geropoulos / New Europe / May 8, 2011

Russia may be the world’s number one oil producer, but it is running out of gasoline. The domestic petrol shortage in several regions prompted the government of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to ban exports of refined petroleum products late last month, especially as the country gears up for State Duma elections in December and Presidential elections in the spring of 2011.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Ban on export of Russian fuel in May - government responds to gasoline shortages in several Russian regions
AFP via Murmansk & Shtokman News / Apr 24, 2011

Russian energy companies are not allowed to export fuel during May. This is an reaction on the current gasoline shortage that already prevails for several days in a number of Russian region, as several Russian news agencies reported on Thursday. The whole production has next month to be sold on the domestic market. According to Russia's energy ministry, the prohibition is valid for the mainly state-controlled energy companies Rosneft and Gazprom Neft.
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Re: German exports at all time record

Unread postby bratticus » Wed 11 May 2011, 22:12:47

Hmm, did they ban or just make unaffordable (and what's the difference?)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Fuel export bans and echoes of the food crisis
FT / May 10, 2011

Moscow has raised a gasoline export duty by a hefty 44 per cent this month, in what amounts to the imposition of a prohibitive tax on overseas sales.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Russia boosts gasoline export duty to keep fuel at home
RIA Novosti via SteelGuru / May 3, 2011

RIA Novosti reported that Russia will hike its gasoline export duty 44% from May 1 instead of an expected 34% to fight local fuel shortages.

... Mr Vadim Mitroshin an analyst at Otkritie bank said that gasoline exports will now make sense only for companies with refineries near the border.

... Mr Troika Dialog investment bank said in a research note that the rather kneejerk emergency measure to raise export duties comes in response to shortages on the domestic market.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Russia Markets: Folly at the Gas Pump
By Craig Mellow / Minyanville / May 02, 2011

Putin, in his glory with some oligarchs to kick around in alleged defense of the People, is doubling down on the top-down controls. He called an emergency meeting with the energy ministry on April 29 demanding a fix for the gas lines problem. By May 1, Russia implemented a 44% increase the export tariff on gasoline If that doesn’t work to replenish domestic supply, a deputy minister at the table promised to ban the export of refined oil products outright. “We cannot allow there to be a deficit of oil or oil products in our country,” Putin declared flatly.


Rationing by price is still rationing.
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Re: German exports at all time record

Unread postby radon » Thu 12 May 2011, 14:10:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', 'B')est friends?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The Peak Oil Crisis: Peak Oil Elasticity
By Tom Whipple / FCNP / May 4, 2011

... last week the Kremlin banned gasoline and diesel exports from Russia to alleviate domestic shortages sending gasoline prices in Germany to a record $9.10 a gallon.

...


Nice that you found and posted them. I picked the story when it was out of press in Russian in the beginning of May, was going to translate and post it, but then lost it and thought that it was too late afterwards. Not sure that the German thread is the best place to post it, it could fit better in the Russian thread, or Export Land model, or Gasoline Shortages or something alike.

As to the story - this is actually more of wrangling between the government and the oil companies. The government wants to keep the internal prices low, the oil companies want to maximize the profit and find loopholes to sell the oil products in the international market, where the prices are higher. The oil companies' clever tricks result in shortages in the domestic Russian market. The government discovers the loopholes and closes them, the oil companies whine and complain about it and so on.

I am not sure about the specific impact on the German market, but probably Germany is not alone in feeling the impact of a reduced supply in the international market. Oil is a fungible product, so arguably Germany can buy oil products elsewhere to compensate for the reduced deliveries from Russia.

If however the Russian side violated contractual obligations by unilaterally curtailing the export to Germany, then it is certainly no good. The German side may then seek redress by invoking the relevant contractual clauses, presumably. In any event, upsetting the Germans this way would be short sighted, but I do not know the details. Most likely Putin managed their expectations somehow, keeping in mind the story with ceasing the gas exports to Ukraine couple years ago. If there is a German story discussing this than it would be interesting to read it.

Anyway, oil and oil products are fungible, unlike natural gas. You would not invest zillions in order to keep an underwater gas pipeline empty.
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Re: German exports at all time record

Unread postby cephalotus » Thu 12 May 2011, 15:59:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon', '
')
I am not sure about the specific impact on the German market, but probably Germany is not alone in feeling the impact of a reduced supply in the international market. Oil is a fungible product, so arguably Germany can buy oil products elsewhere to compensate for the reduced deliveries from Russia.


I'm German and this is the first time a read about the Russian fuel problems. I assume that an export ban of fuel doesn't matter, we need crude and natural gas from Russia and have more than enough refinery capacity available to convert crude to fuel...

9 US$/gal does sound worse than it is. People get used to it quickly. I expect the next big teeth gnashing at 2,00 Euro/l (= around 11 US$/gal) but I'm sure that people will get used to it, too...
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