by Cyrus » Tue 10 May 2011, 20:10:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '3')0,000 bopd. That's nice that some lucky investor is making money. I hope it is you. But. Assuming we are at peak, and IEA's 6.7% depletion rate holds true, then those piddling little spurts amount to . . . piddling little spurts. I'll let you do the math, Rocky. But I am not interested in belaboring this issue.
Alberta SAGD production was just over 300k barrels a day. Projections are for SAGD production to grow to 2 million barrels a day by 2020. 2 million barrels seems much more substantial than 30,000 barrels, but it is still just a drop in the bucket in the big picture and will not offset oil production declines.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hermal bitumen production in Alberta climbed to 549,024 barrels a day in October, up from 434,096 in October 2009 and 407,558 barrels a day in October 2008.
The October 2010 numbers, based on Alberta Energy Resources Conservation Board data and published on the Oilsands Review website, are the most recent available.
New and expanded SAGD projects accounted for most of the increase.
Alberta SAGD output in October averaged 316,508 barrels of bitumen a day, up from 255,409 in October 2009 and 202,692 barrels a day in October 2008.
In its in situ oilsands overview, Peters & Co. Limited said SAGD production has the potential to rise to nearly two million barrels a day by 2020, based on planned projects.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n its latest World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that the average observed decline rate worldwide is currently 6.7%, and is projected to increase to 8.6% by 2030. Decline rates for the super-giants are 3.4%, 6.5% for giant oilfields, and 10.4% for large fields. Moreover, natural decline rates (a natural decline rate strips out ongoing investment in new production) are estimated at 9% for post-peak fields. The implication of these large and accelerating decline rates is alarming: "The implications are far-reaching: investment in 1 mbd of additional capacity—equal to the entire capacity of Algeria today—is needed each year by the end of the projection just to offset the projected acceleration in the natural decline rate"