[Beery]

Does he continue to deny? Does he go quiet for a while and then come back as a Peakist? Does he pretend he was a Peakist all along?

I'm just wondering how this all plays out?

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery', 'D')oes he continue to deny? Does he go quiet for a while and then come back as a Peakist? Does he pretend he was a Peakist all along?

I'm just wondering how this all plays out?

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')hen there are the alternative energy types including greenies, commies, luddites, liberals, college kids, etc. These are the Cornies with a conscience. Very Democratic/Nader. I was one of these. These folks change with information and become bitter. But some hang around. Look at me!

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '[')url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4ls1TRPMTQ&NR=1]Youtube - Gerald Celente: Cold Fusion is a Reality[/url]

Go the 3:45 mark to begin hearing Gerald Celente start talking about energy. He specifically refers to Rossi/Focardi as a "game-changer" that will "liberate the world from oil". "It will be as big as the discovery of fire or the invention of the wheel", says Celente, "like going from the icebox to refrigeration".

[Pops]

I'd bet most anyone who says they came to a conclusion regarding po (or pretty well anything) only after much investigation and contemplation is probably not being completely honest. Most of us have a knee jerk reaction to whatever idea and then hunt for evidence to back up our initial impression, I think that's the way we're made.

Not to say people can't change their assessment if they try to consider contrary evidence and actually have an interest in understanding the situation so they can be prepared. I'm actually more optimistic than I was in, say, 2004. Specifically, I'm not as worried about abrupt systemic collapse (aside from something political that is) or even massive shortages after peak - more a "Groundhog Day" scenario, stuck in an endless economic loop of oscillating oil price and recession resembling the period ca. 9/2007-9/2010, over and over, down and down, one step forward and two back.

I think what makes it seem so few ever change opinion is that for most, their opinion is the only thing they have invested. They haven't changed their life much and won't until forced to change by events so they are merely arguing for their favorite "team".

But that's just my opinion.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')'d bet most anyone who says they came to a conclusion regarding po (or pretty well anything) only after much investigation and contemplation is probably not being completely honest. Most of us have a knee jerk reaction to whatever idea and then hunt for evidence to back up our initial impression, I think that's the way we're made.

[mos6507]

As more data comes in, you have to change your model otherwise you're being ignorant. Ignorant meaning ignoring the data. I am much more concerned with climate change now than I once was, because I've kept up-to-date on the increasingly doomy news, which continues to mount by the day. (I can feel Eaarth in my own locality with each freak weather event.) I also don't believe in runaway oil prices leading to shortages of the sort that Matt Simmons warned us about in 2008 anymore. I don't think that's likely in the short-term at least. I've incorporated demand destruction into my model. I've also become more pessimistic about raising awareness and building movements, because of Nopenhagen/Climategate, the Tea Party wave, Earth 2100 coming and going, and so on. So you have to constantly reevaluate.

[Plantagenet]

There is a presumption that when a person learns that our current oil consumption culture can't continue as it has in the past, that this is depressing or disorienting in some way.

It can actually be very liberating, fun, and even profitable.

People who understand the peak oil problem have an intelligent basis on which to plan their lives. Where you live, what job you work, how you invest, whether you drive a car or a motorscooter, how you heat your home, what food you eat, how often and where you vacation...every decision can be affected by considerations over peak oil.

[efarmer]

Have to chime in with the Plant on this one. Consciousness is not a negative, it is true however
that people have to get over the deer in the headlights, hiney clenching, moment of the truth
hitting them between the running lights and being absorbed at the gut and cerebral level.

What this means is that since the vast majority of people have not made this transition yet,
the timing and rate at which this takes place will be a large wild card driven by events and
most probably by government and corporate media manipulation.

Rather than roving bands of zombies as is common in doomer porn, I think the zombies
that manifest will be the temporary stunning and grief associated types with the realization
that "We will do what we have done until we can't, and then we won't (JHKunstler)"
and the won't is now.

[meemoe_uk]

>What happens when a Corny realizes he's wrong?
From the horses mouth.
I change my stance immediately on realising I'm wrong.
I make a habit of doing stuff where I'm wrong many times every day, so to get good practice of being wrong. If I haven't been wrong a few times in the day, I start to feel I'm not learning anything.

Now the more specific question...
>What happens when a Corny realizes he's diametrically wrong about peakOil and the PeakOilIsNowDoomCult?

Cornies already covered that base as well. If PO was now, we'd need other energy sources. We've carefully check thru all other energy sources. It turns out there is massive energy reserviors of many types available to us. So no doom when PO happens. PO will happen one day. But it'll take humans alot longer than 150 years to deplete a resource that the global anaerobic decomposition process produced for over 3 billion years. I don't expect PO happening this century.

[Hawkcreek]

I started out on this forum supporting a modified corny viewpoint. Over the years the evidence became more obvious to me that PO is the probable cause of some serious problems. Anyway, there are enough problems out there (some probably created by PO) to have made me change my stance considerably - living off grid, buying a 50mpg auto, stocking up on plenty of long term stored food, ammo, and tools.
I still believe it is possible for us to overcome most of these problems, but I don't believe our world has the will to do so anymore.
Big difference between ability and will. You need both to solve problems.
I guess all I mean to say is that it took me years to modify my view.

[vision-master]

It's all just a temporary illusion. It will pass in due time........

All Things Must Pass

[ian807]

Most people are unconsciously cornies. They think that "they" will come up with a techno-fantastic solution brought to you by magic capitalists. What they'll do when they can no longer buy cheeze doodles at the convenience store (or anything else), dancing with the stars goes off the air and the antidepressants wear off is pretty predictable.

The proximal threats to civilization are resource depletion + overpopulation (i.e. population beyond natural carrying capacity) + financial system collapse.

Bottom line? Financial collapse and resource depletion (oil, arable land, water) taken together eventually break the supply chain of goods and services in much of the world. No more cheeze doodles. Until that happens, however, expect the hoi polloi to party on.

[AgentR11]

Most I think do exactly what American culture programs them to do.

1) I so Corney, , woot this is great. I go buy lotsa stuff, i no needy, but I likey!
2) wait... why my gas price go nuts
3) wait... why oil production no go stratospheric in response to great prices and profit?
4) hmmmm... may they CAN'T get more..
5) wait... what this mean, "CAN'T"
6) no oil... hmmm... no gas... me no drive no mo?
7) PANIC!!!!
8 ] wait... we doomed, so I prep for doom
9) wait... how I supposed to prep for doom?
10) OH OH OH! I know. BUY STUFF!!! WOOT! I LIKEY!

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut it'll take humans alot longer than 150 years to deplete a resource that the global anaerobic decomposition process produced for over 3 billion years.

[meemoe_uk]

>But it'll take humans alot longer than 150 years to deplete a resource that the global anaerobic decomposition process produced for over 3 billion years.
>Sounds like it's time for you to crack open a petroleum geology textbook...
Go on then. I'll play your guessing game.
What did I say wrong?
the 150 years part?
3 billion years part?
anaerobic part?
decomposition part?
that it happened globally part?
The human part?

I'd guess it's the 3billion year part. Most of the mineral oil today is dated roughly something like 250million years old IIRC. But the process had been going on much longer. It's just that oil gets consumed by nature if we don't consume it. The really old stuff has gone thru the whole degrading process plant matter -> kerogen -> oil -> tar sands -> shale oil -> slightly carbon rock process.

Give me a more specific clue or link and I will follow.
Don't bother if it's petroleum gelogy revistied for christians " learn how god created petroluem 6000 years ago, and why most gelogists have got it wrong ".

[rockdoc123]

Not sure anyone cares but for clarity.
The greatest proportion of the worlds oil was produced from Jurassic and Cretaceous source rocks which we could take a ~150 MYa middle marker. The Cenozoic source rocks are next important at ~70 Mya followed by the Late Devonian (~370 Mya) and then the Silurian (~430 Mya). So in general you could say that most of the worlds oil is from source rocks less than 200 My old. And they do not actually stay in a maturity window for that long. The process of organic maturation is controlled mainly by time and temperature. Left too long at high temperatures (depth) oil will crack to gas. As a consequence it is invariably much less time for oil to be generated before sediments are uplifted so that the oil can be preserved. There is no general rule as it has a lot to do with sediment burial rates, geothermal gradient and kerogen type....all of which vary.