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$6 gas by summer likely

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby dolanbaker » Sat 30 Apr 2011, 19:55:05

I think that the real issue is the rate of change in the cost of petrol rather than the absolute price.
If you had many years of stable prices, then everyone knows where they stand relative to the costs of goods & services.

Now we have a time when there are rapid rises in the cost of an essential product and without a corresponding rise in wages, it's causing serious grief.
Here in Ireland, petrol has in the last year gone from €1.20 to €1.55 a litre (i'll leave it to others to calculate the us equiv).
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby AgentR11 » Sat 30 Apr 2011, 20:47:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'b')ack to 3-4 people and 400-500 sf/person. We'll spend less on silly crap and that's OK too.


We live at 500 sqft / person here, its really quite comfortable. I don't know what the big deal is supposed to be.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he hardest part will be surviving the tantrums.


Tantrums are easy.

Stick in one hand, then yell... OUT!

We'll get back to whats right, kids need permission to be in the house; not need permission to go outside.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby Pretorian » Sat 30 Apr 2011, 23:38:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he hardest part will be surviving the tantrums.


Tantrums are easy.

Stick in one hand, then yell... OUT!

We'll get back to whats right, kids need permission to be in the house; not need permission to go outside.


Does this rule applies to females too ? Are you ready to hold a bag every 9 months or so?
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby Pops » Sun 01 May 2011, 11:57:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'Y')ou can take a pre-1964 dime to a coin store and trade it for over 5 dollars meaning that gas is priced less now than any other time when measured by sound money.

No, that simply shows there is a bubble in precious metals, lately fueled by the same free money as the stock markets, it'll pass like the RE bubble before it.

In chained dollars the 1960 dime is worth 73¢ - we passed a buck fifty gas a while back.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby AgentR11 » Sun 01 May 2011, 12:05:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'D')oes this rule applies to females too ? Are you ready to hold a bag every 9 months or so?


1) I didn't know breeding was mandatory.

2) hold a bag? No idea what that phrase means to you. Even sticking that phrase in google with various restrictive parameters gets me nada.

If you are talking about adult females tantrums; have those already, and basic skills of conflict avoidance and deescalation work wonderfully. Not rocket science. Which is a good thing, since, at least for the females I know, once they are ticked off, they are as resolute as kamikaze pilots.

*edit - stupid "at at" typos!!!
Last edited by AgentR11 on Sun 01 May 2011, 12:20:25, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby evilgenius » Sun 01 May 2011, 12:09:44

What's this about high gas prices having anything to do with sharing with those that are less well off. High gas prices are about out bidding those that are less well off!
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby Pops » Sun 01 May 2011, 12:21:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he hardest part will be surviving the tantrums.


Tantrums are easy.

Sorry, Hee Hee, I meant the tantrums of adults, a la:
Gimme the F'n oil!
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby diemos » Sun 01 May 2011, 12:28:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'H')igh gas prices are about out bidding those that are less well off!


How disturbing that the US has to borrow money from those less well off countries in order to have the money to out bid them for oil. One might expect that not to last long.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby AgentR11 » Sun 01 May 2011, 12:35:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')orry, Hee Hee, I meant the tantrums of adults, a la:
Gimme the F'n oil!


Ahhhh! I see. Different kind of tantrum.

Well think about it though, the physical layout of our civilization has pretty much crippled the ability of those tantrums to be disruptive.

The poor, already gave up on high volume consumption of fuel; and food stamps takes the edge off of the hunger-induced rampages that you see now in the mid-east.

The rich, don't honestly care what the price is, and some may even make more money on high oil prices depending on whether they get royalty checks.

The middle class... well, they all thought it a great idea to live 80 miles away from the city centers; by the time they want to throw a fit; they won't be willing to spend the gas to get somewhere that the fit would be an inconvenience to those in power.

Sure, they'll make the news, but Mayor Bob and his buddies will go to work the next morning and do pretty much what they were going to do anyway.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby AgentR11 » Sun 01 May 2011, 12:38:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diemos', 'H')ow disturbing that the US has to borrow money from those less well off countries in order to have the money to out bid them for oil. One might expect that not to last long.


Depends on how much hardball the US is willing to play when it comes that time.

Grain export ban anyone? Time one to coincide with a ban from Russia?

I think more than a few of those countries produce a lot more oil than food calories; and well, in the end, you can't eat oil.

Hunger is a weapon of war, always has been, always will be.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby diemos » Sun 01 May 2011, 13:00:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '1'). For every dollar the rich invest overseas, tax the hell out of them. ...
8. Revoke NAFTA and all free trade agreements. Only make trade agreements that are FAIR TRADE, and evaluate the trade in terms of jobs. We lose on both counts currently, jobs and dollars.

"Free trade" has definitely been a disaster for the common american. I'm all for managed trade where we exchange goods and services in balance with other countries but there's no capital flows or inter country borrowing.

We cannot be the lifeboat for everyone else's unrestrained breeding. Except I wouldn't allow immigration for any reason. A "labor shortage" is an oxymoron. All it means is that capital doesn't want to pay as much as it would have to for the labor it wants.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'W')e also need single payer Canadian-style healthcare. That alone would solve our deficit crisis.

What can't go on, won't. Will we eventually wake up and eliminate the parasites who batten off the sickcare industry? Given what I saw in the last round of "healthcare reform" I doubt it. From watching people demand the government keep it's hands off medicare to people passionately rejecting the idea of government bureaucrats rationing their health care in favor of corporate lackeys rationing their healthcare, I despair. I'm reminded of the old saying that in a democracy people get the government they deserve.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3'). Clean up Wall Street.

Preferably by burning it to the ground and sowing the ground with salt. Wall street is nothing but a parasitic cancer on the real economy.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '4'). Lawsuit reform, screw the lawyers. Nobody should get rich off a fender bender or a supposed slip and fall in Walmart.

Careful, that's one of the few things that the corporations are still afraid of and it limits their bad behavior.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '6'). Decriminalize marijuana. Tax it. And regulate it for safety.. the strains these days have too much THC, we'd be better off with milder legal pot. (personally I don't smoke it btw)
Whatever. Pretty much irrelevant.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '7'). I would actually stay in Afghanistan and Iraq on the condition they work out an arrangement with us to become a de facto US territory. If we're going to stay there forever anyway and spend our treasury there, they need to contribute. If they won't play ball then we get out. Whatever we do it has to start being profitable. Long run, this would be great for both countries.. we could share oil and mineral wealth 50/50, they would get the benefit of US protection and over time their society would benefit overall just as India did from the British Empire.
The empire is net energy negative. We're importing 12M barrels/day of crude and product. We're paying $1T/year for the military industrial complex and it's wars. That's around $230/barrel of imported oil.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '9'). Peak Oil is real. The government needs a new Manhattan Project.. a new massive department with the best researchers, we need to fund every wacky green idea out there and see what works. Ensure these ideas lead to jobs here at home, let's actually export green tech rather than import it from China.
I'd be shutting down the MIC and transferring those resources to a renewable energy build-out. 5% of GDP building new infrastructure. 0.5% of GDP for R&D.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby Sixstrings » Sun 01 May 2011, 16:27:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diemos', 'E')xcept I wouldn't allow immigration for any reason. A "labor shortage" is an oxymoron. All it means is that capital doesn't want to pay as much as it would have to for the labor it wants.


Well I'm just being fair. I love different cultures, I'm objective on this issue and it's a fact immigrants bring a lot to the table. But the immigration issue always breaks down into a zero sum argument that prevents us from being rational. Rationally, immigration is desirable if you need the extra labor. it will take a while, but eventually we would have a jobs recovery and then a genuine labor shortage -- let wages rise to livable wages then carefully regulate immigration thereafter.

Also investors visas should be exempt from the immigration ban -- if you're coming here with money in your pocket ready to open a business and hire folks here, that's a good thing. If you're coming here penniless just to push wages down further and deny someone a job when we don't have enough jobs anyway -- that's not good.

Nothing will happen on this issue though -- Republicans want Mexican slave labor and Dems want the votes. And the American people lose. :( Viva la Mexico, that's where we're headed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')areful, that's one of the few things that the corporations are still afraid of and it limits their bad behavior.


We need to study other nations, see what works, and try it out. I've spent time in Europe and they're just not as litigious as we are. Something is wrong here in the US on this issue. The lawsuit mania is driving up healthcare, insurance, and business costs. Here in Florida if you watch TV or listen to the radio half the ads are for ambulance chasing lawyers. That's got to stop, suing each other cannot be a top industry in this country that's insanity.

The only plus side is that this is the only way for the desperate working class to get significant cash in their pocket. But there are other ways to go about that rather than auto accident / malpractice lottery.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hatever. Pretty much irrelevant.


Actually it's not. Don't have the numbers on me, but a large percentage of inmates are imprisoned over marijuana. In 2009 there were close to one million marijuana prosecutions. So this is an important issue.. we have to break the prison culture cycle. These ideas I have are all about how to build up the lower and middle class again -- it's not all about money, we also have to get away from the culture of imprisonment.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he empire is net energy negative. We're importing 12M barrels/day of crude and product. We're paying $1T/year for the military industrial complex and it's wars. That's around $230/barrel of imported oil.


Fair point, this is a tough one. All I know is that we're supposedly into peak oil, yet China and India keep on subsidizing gas prices. How can both things co-exist? Why do we Americans have to pay crippling gas prices but the Chinese don't?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'d be shutting down the MIC and transferring those resources to a renewable energy build-out. 5% of GDP building new infrastructure. 0.5% of GDP for R&D.

Well.. we can't de-militarize, that's all we have left Diemos. I'm anti-war but we must have a strong deterrent or China really would walk all over us.

P.S. I'm surprised you mostly agreed with me on everything. Even my tax idea?

That's the most radical, though nobody can really challenge me on that cuz you'd have to be an economist to really break it down.. I realize that, this is in reality very complicated stuff. To build up this country you must tear down what so many wealthy and middle class folks are invested in -- multinational corps. It's a catch-22. Probably the safest thing is Krugman's 25% tariff idea. But then we still lose white collar jobs to India over the internet.. it's a real conundrum, how to bring jobs back home without crashing the stock market and everybody's 401k.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby Livewire713 » Sun 01 May 2011, 16:41:40

Sixstrings wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1'). For every dollar the rich invest overseas, tax the hell out of them. Then opening a business here and hiring Americans would make sense. We have to do a tax scheme like this or else in the next offshoring wave we're going to lose all the white collar jobs -- like radiologists and backoffice legal, accounting, etc. -- to Indians working over the internet.


I know a lot of White collar workers that think they are untouchable, some think their companies would fold if they were to leave. These same people have very little compassion for "less skilled" blue collar workers that are having a tough time now. I hate to see any job offshored but maybe if we were all in the same boat then we would be less likely to screw each other over.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby pedalling_faster » Sun 01 May 2011, 16:44:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')he hardest part will be surviving the tantrums.

i agree. it's not like getting by on 80 or 70 million barrels per day is hardship ... unless you have a population who thinks gas costs too much ... but keeps their foot on the gas pedal till they're 50 feet from the stop sign.

many Americans have very little concept of conservation.

there is so much energy in a gallon of gas. i found this out recently when i used a few tablespoons to start a fire, in my fireplace. CONCLUSION: gasoline has much higher energy density than charcoal lighter fluid.

future generations will look back at our 10 mpg vehicles and scratch their heads in disgusted wonderment. in other words, we still have plenty of oil. any other generation would consider the amount of oil we have now to be a God-send.

it's our reaction to the situation, and the way our economy has been structured - Just-in-time BS guarantees that supply disruptions will have maximum effect because there is no local inventory, dependence on fossil fuels, etc. - that guarantees a Major Tantrum.

definitely we need to stay out of the way of the Tantrum & Death Throes of the late not-so-great US economy.

i just talked to a chain-saw logger family, their tools got stolen out of the back of their truck. that happens so often now it becomes wise to go into lock-down mode, even when your car is in the driveway at home.

especially if it's metal. i talked to a neighbor who runs estate sales, there were some really cool 2 inch diameter fishing weights, about 2 pounds of lead each with lead going about $1 a pound scrap. someone stole the lead weights. if they put them in their pants, they must have had suspenders.

that's desperation, going into an estate sale at a mobile home and stealing $4 worth of lead in some fishing weights.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby Sixstrings » Sun 01 May 2011, 16:54:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Livewire713', 'I') know a lot of White collar workers that think they are untouchable, some think their companies would fold if they were to leave. These same people have very little compassion for "less skilled" blue collar workers that are having a tough time now. I hate to see any job offshored but maybe if we were all in the same boat then we would be less likely to screw each other over.


Interestingly, layoffs were the first problem for white collars. Lots of these folks are no collar at all now, in line with a million people at McDonalds on hiring day.

So this next wave of offshoring has yet to fully happen, but it's coming. Ask yourself this question: could your job be done by an Indian over the internet? If not, could it be done by an Indian coming over on an H1B visa?

American workers are getting it from both sides, white collar stuff that can be done over the net is going offshore, plus we ship in immigrants for the things which still require a worker physically here.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby diemos » Sun 01 May 2011, 17:32:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'W')ell.. we can't de-militarize, that's all we have left Diemos.

Don't I know it, the MIC is my sugar daddy. I'm just riding that wave until it runs out. What can't go on, won't.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m anti-war but we must have a strong deterrent or China really would walk all over us.

We have enough nuclear deterrent that I doubt anybodies' landing craft are going to be storming the beaches of california any time soon. (And why bother when their immigrants are already doing such a good job.) If by "walk all over us" you mean "use their trade surplus to outbid us for the available oil according to the individual liberty and free market principles we espouse" then, yeah probably.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P').S. I'm surprised you mostly agreed with me on everything. Even my tax idea?

I'm not willing to open up that can of worms since I think tax policy is not the main effect determining the direction of the economy. Plenty to discuss on that topic but there are bigger fish to fry. The one tax policy I'd put in place is an ever escalating tax on fossil energy where the money collected is divided equally among all legal adult citizens. This would incentivize the use of renewables while at the same time having heavy users of energy subsidize light users encouraging efficiency.

In my view tax policy has more to do with dividing up the spoils among the various segments of society than it has to do with affecting the creation of wealth.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 01 May 2011, 22:43:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'I') have no idea who is right. I believe that the collective wisdom of the world oil market (speculators included) is a better predictor, on average over time, than any of us.


Not really, because for the most part the speculation in the market is made up of zombie traders, lurching forward by the scent of money and fear. There is really no intelligence or wisdom there guiding them. By example, if markets had a real brain they would never have bought into the dot-com bubble or housing bubble. It's only the pundits and investor managers that believe and promote the myth that the markets are somehow all omniscient.


Read "The Wisdom of Crowds". Ponder why it works. Then prove your "zombies traders" theory, if you want your view on this taken seriously.

I never said markets had a brain. Nor did I say they are omniscient. They are the "aggregate vote" of the world's traders, which I STILL say I'll take over any one given opinion (especially an uninformed one).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby kildred590 » Mon 02 May 2011, 02:59:09

The article is quite silly and appears to be created for the elderly Fox-viewing small investor types who want to blame other people for their problems.

There is no evidence that speculation is driving prices up ; prices have followed economic growth prospects pretty closely. The price a few months ago was low because the GFC had driven down expectations of demand.

Small investors make up a tiny and completely insignificant proportion of trade.

Libya produces 2% of the worlds oil ; not large, but not "insignificant" either.

Hostilities have little effect long term on the oil price. The Iran-Iraq war and the Nigerian civil war occurred at atime of record low oil prices.
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby Pretorian » Mon 02 May 2011, 16:56:44

hey everyone likes to blame other people don't poke the elderly
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Re: $6 gas by summer likely

Postby Keith_McClary » Fri 06 May 2011, 01:53:29

Your monthly gasoline bill: $368
Image
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ississippi tops the list, with the average household spening over 14% of their total income on gas last month.
...
Washington D.C., where the average household spent just $89 on gas in April, or about 2% of total income.
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