I am a person who doesn't ordinarily watch TV or get any information from mainstream sources, with hardly any meat between the endless advertising and the subtle brainwashing and dumbing down that occurs. But, I visited my parents last weekend.. and of course, they had the TV on. The climate between now and maybe a year ago (when I last seriously watched TV) is very different.
Advertising for vehicles now use the MPG the car gets as a selling point. They didn't a year ago. They actually made FUN of George W. Bush on the mainstream Phoenix news station comparing him to Emperor Palpatine in the new Star Wars film. They used to lick his arsehole and refer to him nobly as a 'wartime' president.
I think we all are smart to realize that the market won't save us from the many converging crises we see in front of us, but I think we have underestimated the power of the mainstream media to significantly alter the perceptions and opinions of the average person who gets home from work and turns on the TV. I actually sat down with my mother and was able to have coherent conversation while watching The End of Suburbia, with her now agreeing with me all about peak oil.. when 2 years ago she wouldn't even let me bring up the topic. I think the change has had a lot to do with how mainstream media now frames conservation and resource depletion, and the fact that gasoline is no longer and will never be so cheap and plentiful here in America.
It doesn't take a genius to make a transition to less energy intensive lifestyles, but naturally people take a very long time before they can change their mind about something very important and adapt to new relevant information while still being able to save face.
When people see prices go up considerably they will not have anywhere to turn to figure out how to survive again, and I think the characteristic American denial will go up in smoke very quickly. That is where our responsibilities lie. The full transition will occur when the lifestyle possible by believing in oil turns out to be near to the quality of lifestyle by believing oil is in full depletion and that we should make the transition. They don't like the idea of riding their bicycles to work, but the idea will seem that much better when because of shortages they would have to sit in the oven-car for a couple hours to get a tank of gasoline.
I think that now is the time that we put our minds together and conceive a list of solutions for the problem of oil depletion for every demographic, for every level of organization and establishment. Not solutions that will enable us to continue on living the way we do, that is by no means possible.. but solutions that will enable us to continue living at all. Contrary to popular belief, the overshoot in the United States isn't so bad. The majority of the problem here is the design of our infrastructure, and the unwillingness of people to change... if the United States were to fix these 2 problems I think the die off here will not be half as bad as in more densely populated areas of the world.
We've seen the iceburg ahead for quite some time now and finally the ship is starting to turn. We're the heaviest economy on the planet, so it is going to take a lot of work.
We need to know the costs and benefits of major infrastructural overhaul and compare these to the costs and benefits of major military action. I am of the opinion that it is obvious which of these are cheaper and more workable. We need to address lists of public policy change in regards to our energy future, so that when the ship starts to turn a bit more we can have all of our ideas ready for immediate implementation.
We need to have a doable and comprehensive list of ways for the average person to become more self sufficient. We need to start developing a list of places that will most likely be uninhabitable so that people with a rational mindset will stop developing there, and move the development to a climate that has a future.
I think we are being overly naive if we try to implement non-scalable solutions to our oil depletion problem. Organization is not out enemy in dealing with life post peak, it is our friend. Distribution of energy and food resources in the future will have to be by some means fair or else the country will immediately dissolve into civil war, and the United States will no longer be united. Solutions will have to be implemented across the board, relocations from unsustainable areas will eventually have to happen, and our sources of energy will have to switch over from fossil fuels to human labor and renewable sources.
Yes, I believe that when things get bad enough, people will actually want to do physical work to better their lifestyles. The end of the age of oil does not mean the end of economy. It means the end of the cheap economy. It means the end of the easy economy.
Within the next couple of years, the elephant in the room's shit is really going to start to stink. It's becoming too big of a problem to hide anymore. How long will it be before Mr. Bartlett is addressing the nation on primetime television on a major news network? How long will it be before the bidding wars begin in earnest, and hoarding starts?
We have the means using the internet to communicate instantly with anyone else all over the world. There are televisions everywhere. Once the full extent of the problem is known worldwide there will have to be a global consensus and compromise in dealing with it, and anyone whos hoarding will have to share.
The alternative is nothing less than nuclear war. We all know that. You can't just let a country with nuclear weapons starve. They would lash out first. The United States CANNOT just collapse when there are nukes scattered about the country in underground ICBM's.
It's naive to think that technology can just regress and that we can achieve sustainability on a local level and everything just be nice and peachy. We've reached a point along technological development in where we CAN'T go back.
There are many on this board who make some kind of correlation between increased complexity and resource depletion.
Complexity is not the problem, a return to simple living will not fix the problem of fossil fuel depletion, and technology (at least in the united states) is here to stay.
The problem lies in misunderstanding of technology and misapplication of science in agriculture, industry, and planning.
Our thought should not be in how to convince people of our predicament, our thought should not be in predicting the many signs of depletion and the glaring errors that we have made in the past regarding distrubution of fossil fuel supply, and most certainly our time should NOT be spent criticizing the powers that be for simply not knowing any better, or worse yet, knowing better yet not changing things.
Our thought should lie in contingency planning and cultural shift, so that when people can no longer deny what is going on around us that we can actually help out and provide a real alternative and jumping off point for any future that we may have left. The damage is done.
I think it's time we start working on solutions.
PeakOil is You
"Iceburg right ahead!!" the turning of the mainstr
"Iceburg right ahead!!" the turning of the mainstr
by ShawnAvery » Sat 21 May 2005, 19:24:55
"It's a lot easier to get someone who's never been burnt to jump in the fire.." -me
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ShawnAvery - Peat
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Re: "Iceburg right ahead!!" the turning of the mai
by Tapas » Sat 21 May 2005, 20:23:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ShawnAvery', 'I') think it's time we start working on solutions.
Excellent post Shawn!
We have over 2000 members on this forum with intelligent minds and constructive thoughts. We should be the ambassadors to our own communities, spread the awareness and get the media and the city and local councils motivated to bring a change in policy.
I hope to read more of your posts. You are on the right track. Your writings are a breath of fresh air.
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Tapas - Peat
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by Daculling » Sat 21 May 2005, 21:10:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '"')Brevity is the soul of wit." ~Shakespeare
I disagree, very inspiring and I agree. We all need to further the waking of the sheeple. They are the resourse we deeply need to make a transition, though I still believe it will be violent and ugly.
- Daculling
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by TrueKaiser » Sat 21 May 2005, 23:06:24
*jaw drops before seting fireworks off*
*insert '%deity'* someone that actualy gets it!
*insert '%deity'* someone that actualy gets it!
Religion is excellent stuff for keeping the common people quiet.
'Napoleon Bonaparte'
'Napoleon Bonaparte'
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TrueKaiser - Tar Sands
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Re: "Iceburg right ahead!!" the turning of the mai
by some_guy282 » Sun 22 May 2005, 00:59:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ShawnAvery', '
')
When people see prices go up considerably they will not have anywhere to turn to figure out how to survive again, and I think the characteristic American denial will go up in smoke very quickly. That is where our responsibilities lie. The full transition will occur when the lifestyle possible by believing in oil turns out to be near to the quality of lifestyle by believing oil is in full depletion and that we should make the transition. They don't like the idea of riding their bicycles to work, but the idea will seem that much better when because of shortages they would have to sit in the oven-car for a couple hours to get a tank of gasoline.
')
When people see prices go up considerably they will not have anywhere to turn to figure out how to survive again, and I think the characteristic American denial will go up in smoke very quickly. That is where our responsibilities lie. The full transition will occur when the lifestyle possible by believing in oil turns out to be near to the quality of lifestyle by believing oil is in full depletion and that we should make the transition. They don't like the idea of riding their bicycles to work, but the idea will seem that much better when because of shortages they would have to sit in the oven-car for a couple hours to get a tank of gasoline.
Agreed. Sooner or later the denial will go up in smoke. But what will replace it? You seem to believe people will react rationally and orderly when the crisis occurs. I think that if people acted rationally and orderly, we wouldn't be in this mess to begin with. I've got my money on anger replacing denial when the time comes.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ShawnAvery', '
') I think that now is the time that we put our minds together and conceive a list of solutions for the problem of oil depletion for every demographic, for every level of organization and establishment. Not solutions that will enable us to continue on living the way we do, that is by no means possible.. but solutions that will enable us to continue living at all.
Agreed. But is the average American psychologically prepared to hear this? I don't think so. If they were, our leaders would be informing them of the problem. Instead, they continue to say (and will for god knows how long), "Don't worry, be happy." Any leader who gets on TV and tells us the truth is commiting political suicide. You mentioned Bartlett giving presentations later in your post. I agree that may happen someday, but I can easily see some leader coming out and saying, "Yes we have a serious problem. But just elect me and I'll fix everything. It'll go back to the way things used to be.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ShawnAvery', '
')
Contrary to popular belief, the overshoot in the United States isn't so bad. The majority of the problem here is the design of our infrastructure, and the unwillingness of people to change... if the United States were to fix these 2 problems I think the die off here will not be half as bad as in more densely populated areas of the world.
Also agree to a point. One thing the US has going for it is its ability to feed its population. Even with peak oil we will likely be able to take care of our own food wise, even if the food is very expensive. As far as the infrastructure goes, that gets tricky. Of course it's easy to say things would be better if we changed our living arrangements by limiting the suburbs and inceasing mass transit, but doing it is another matter entirely. I'm not optimistic we'll have the resources to build massive rail transport systems even if we had the will.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ShawnAvery', '
')
We need to know the costs and benefits of major infrastructural overhaul and compare these to the costs and benefits of major military action. I am of the opinion that it is obvious which of these are cheaper and more workable. We need to address lists of public policy change in regards to our energy future, so that when the ship starts to turn a bit more we can have all of our ideas ready for immediate implementation.
Unfortunately our leaders have already made this cost/benefit analysis, and we weren't allowed in on the meeting. I dont' think anyone on this board would support resource wars in favor of spending that same money on things like alternative energy and rail systems here at home. But you know what? We don't make policy. And the people who do make policy don't care what we think. They've made their choice, and they chose resource wars.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ShawnAvery', '
')
The alternative is nothing less than nuclear war. We all know that. You can't just let a country with nuclear weapons starve. They would lash out first. The United States CANNOT just collapse when there are nukes scattered about the country in underground ICBM's.
Your logic here is identical to that of many Peak Oil deniers - "It's too terrible to happen, so it wont." I don't want to see it happen either, but don't think it can't just because the thought of it is too terrible to bear.
You seem to be fairly optimistic about what will happen. I think the scenario you envision is possible, but far from likely. When we hit Peak Oil, the economy can no longer grow. If the economy doesn't grow at 2% per year, we can't finance our debt. That's bad enough if we are on a slow and gradual decline. What happens if Ghawar dies and we see a rapid decline?
Are the sheeple getting a clue? 
The last thing any of us needs is a hoard of raving neighbors/coworkers at our front door when TSHTF thinking that you can somehow wave a magic wand & give them back thier life styles.
too funny !!!
