[TheAntiDoomer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'N')ot only are you a punk, but yer a lier too.

[vision-master]

Li'er -

a person or thing that lies, as in wait or in ambush.

[copious.abundance]

Steady, steady . . .

Initial jobless claims fall 10,000 to 382,000. Still awaiting that double-dip
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the week ending April 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 382,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 392,000. The 4-week moving average was 389,500, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week's revised average of 395,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending March 26, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 26 was 3,723,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,732,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,745,750, a decrease of 24,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,769,750.

[...]

[Daniel_Plainview]

Jobless Claims SKYROCKET by 27,000 to 412,000



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')NEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending April 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 412,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 385,000. The 4-week moving average was 395,750, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 390,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending April 2, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 2 was 3,680,000, a decrease of 58,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,738,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,728,750, a decrease of 20,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,749,500.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 443,503 in the week ending April 9, an increase of 89,686 from the previous week.



There were 514,136 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent during the week ending April 2, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,919,184, a decrease of 166,483 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.9 percent and the volume was 4,987,473.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending March 26 was 8,517,545.

Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin, during the week ending March 26.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,642 in the week ending April 2, an increase of 155 from the prior week. There were 2,187 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 119 from the preceding week.

There were 37,812 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending March 26, an increase of 1,025 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 38,182, a decrease of 481 from the prior week.

States reported 3,563,031 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending March 26, a decrease of 25,785 from the prior week. There were 5,852,143 claimants in the comparable week in 2010. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Jobless Claims Remain Above 400,000 for 2d Consecutive Week -- The First Time Claims have Remained Above 400,000 for 2 Weeks Since January



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell in the latest week but remained above 400,000 for the second straight week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending April 16 fell 13,000 to 403,000. This is the first time that claims have remained above 400,000 for two weeks since late January. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists surveyed by MarketWatch was for claims to fall to 390,000. The average of new claims over the past four weeks, meanwhile, rose by 2,250 to 399,000. This is the highest level since the week ended Feb. 19. Claims in the previous week were revised upward to an increase of 31,000 to 416,000 compared with the initial estimate of an increase of 27,000 to 412,000. The Labor Department also reported that the number of Americans who continue to receive state unemployment checks decreased by 7,000 to 3.70 million in the week ended April 9. This is the lowest level since September 2008. The four-week average remained at its lowest level since October 2008.

[Lore]

What about all those 50,000 part time jobs at McDonalds? Shouldn't that have taken some off the rolls, or is that next weeks figure?

[copious.abundance]

^
Those people probably won't show up until May's payroll report.

Total number of people on unemployment claims of all types fell 217,735 last week. Those just in regular state programs fell 144,210.

Data

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '^')
Those people probably won't show up until May's payroll report.

Total number of people on unemployment claims of all types fell 217,735 last week. Those just in regular state programs fell 144,210.

Data

[cipi604]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '^')
Those people probably won't show up until May's payroll report.

Total number of people on unemployment claims of all types fell 217,735 last week. Those just in regular state programs fell 144,210.

Data

[copious.abundance]

Jobless claims jumped to 429K. Wonder if we're getting layoffs related to supply chain issues in Japan the past few weeks?

LINK

Total numbers of those collecting benefits are still falling nicely, and in most categories too. We'll have to wait and see what happens over the next few weeks.

Labor Department

[seahorse3]

Please don't make things personal, like "oily" is posting bad news. I appreciate people who base opinions on facts, and don't form opinions and then select facts. If things are getting better, I'm glad and want to know bc I may change things I'm doing. If things are getting worse, I want to know and may change things I'm doing. It's like watching the weather and asking do I need a raincoat today or not?

My point with the above is not to make these threads personal against another poster. Oilfinder is typically the optimist. That's okay, bc in trying to ascertain the truth, we need all the facts. But, don't make things personal if he post articles that seem contrary to his general feel. What we want here, or what I want from here, is the truth, whatever that may be, good or bad. I don't want to come here and argue a position, I want to understand what is going on around me. I want the facts. Making things personal, getting into bitter disputes, is what drove so many people away from this forum.

If we get entrenched into a position, all we do is bury ourselves.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Looks like we've got a double-whammy of horrible news: GDP growth plummeted to under 1.8% (from 3.1%), while initial jobless claims soared by 25,000 to 429,000 ... and keep in mind that GDP is now 50% govt spending -- so without unprecedented govt spending, GDP would be deeply into negative territory.

GDP slows sharply in first quarter; jobless claims soar by 25K

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') pair of weak economic reports Thursday show the American recovery remains fragile: Economic growth slowed sharply in the first quarter, and jobless claims unexpectedly jumped by 25,000 last week.

The first report was widely expected. The Commerce Department said the nation’s output of goods and services expanded at an annual rate of 1.8% in the first three months of the year. That was down from 3.1% growth in the fourth quarter and 2.8% for all of last year.

The slowdown reflected the sapping effects of rising oil prices on consumer spending and the nation’s trade. National defense spending fell early this year, and budget-strapped state and local governments added to the weaker expenditures.

Many economists weren’t concerned too much about the slowdown, believing much of it was due to temporary factors such as higher fuel costs and harsh winter weather that further held back consumers.

Officials at the Federal Reserve as well as many private forecasters expect economic output to bounce back up to 3% or higher in the rest of the year -- although it remains to be seen whether global economic and political problems, particularly the unrest in the Middle East that is behind the spike in petroleum prices, will ease in the coming months.

Even with the slower pace of growth, the nation’s output in the first quarter, annualized, exceeded $15 trillion for the first time, as measured in current dollars. By this measure, the U.S. recovered from the recent deep recession in the spring of last year.

But the job market is another story. The U.S. economy today still has about 7 million fewer payroll jobs than it did at the end of 2007 when the recession began. And though hiring has picked up in recent months, the gains haven’t been anywhere as quick or stellar as corporate profits -- as Thursday’s report on unemployment claims showed.

The Labor Department said the number of workers filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose by 25,000 to 429,000 in the week ending last Saturday. Although these figures are volatile from week to week, analysts noted that this was the third straight week in which the filings had exceeded 400,000. And the latest number is the highest since late January.

Some seasonal and temporary factors may have played a role in the latest jump in unemployment claims. That includes the Easter holiday and the disaster in Japan, which disrupted delivery of parts in the auto and electronics industry. Though analysts said it was too early to say the labor market was losing momentum, the report was nonetheless a discouraging sign in an economy that is struggling with nearly 9% unemployment.

--Don Lee

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '[')url=http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20110583.htm]Labor Department[/url]

[Daniel_Plainview]

WSJ: One Million Exhausted Jobless Benefits in Past Year

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Roughly one million people were unable to find work after exhausting their unemployment benefits over the past year, new data released Thursday by the Labor Department suggests.

The back-of-the-envelope datapoint is yet another sign that the labor market remains weak, economists said.

About 8.2 million idled workers were receiving unemployment benefits as of the week ended April 9, the Labor Department said in its weekly jobless claims report. That compares to about 10.5 million individuals at the same time last year, a decline of roughly 2.3 million people.

Since the federal government estimates that the economy created 1.3 million jobs during the 12 months ended in March, economists said that slightly less people probably fell through the cracks and couldn’t find employment.

“That leaves, roughly speaking, about one million people who have exhausted their unemployment benefits and have very likely not yet found a job,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. in New York.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Peter Tchir notes:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') Jobless claims were clearly a big miss. Not only were they worse than expectations 429k vs 395k, but it was the worst week since January, and is confirming the rising trend in the 4 week moving average. We will likely hear even less about the moving average next week, as a nice 385k print drops out of the average.

Over the past year, we have argued repeatedly that jobless claims have understated the problems in the labor market. We maintain our view that structural changes to the labor market have helped keep the claims number down. The mere fact that fewer people are working has reduced the pool of people who can be laid off.

Employers are far less likely to layoff people who are working part-time or with minimal benefits. It has been far easier to cut back on hours rather than lay people off. The workers accepted this given the bleak job market, and the employers liked the free option of keeping these workers around in case their business rebounded.

Every disappointment in Non-Farm Payrolls has validated our theory. The old models have consistently predcited or hoped for better reports than we got. Although the numbers have been positive since October, we have not seen a big blow out number, and many have been downright weak - especially considering we got QE2 and the big tax 'compromise'.

So, coming into the Christmas holidays, with QE2 flooding the system with money, tax cuts for the rich being extended, and payroll tax cuts for the lowly employees, it made sense to retain workers. Every employer had to hope that this was finally the long awaited turnaround. Since the workers were cheap to keep on the payroll, the cost of preparing for this big turnaround was minimal.

Well, guess what happened? That turnaround has stumbled. At the very least its not strong, and at worst, its completely fizzled and runs the risk of fading completely when the government spending is finally reduced. So employers, who held onto employees, for a long time are finally saying they just can't do it.

Maybe its in preparation of a slow summer season, a result of inventory build up, but its undeniable that many employers, who clung to the hope that business would pick up, are finally going through another round of reductions.

What about the vaunted small business job creation? Isn't the birth/death model showing job growth here? Sure, but its a model. I think the layoffs are coming more and more from small business. In small businesses, there really is a personal attachment. The consequences of laying of an employee, who may even be a friend, are more heartfelt, than for a large corporation. From talking to some small business owners, they were less likely to let someone go in this weak economic environment. They actually felt a responsibility to their employee. They worked hard to reduce hours, encourage the person to look for another job, but did all they could to keep them employed. They are now throwing in the towel. None of the momentum from October has carried through. They are seeing weakness again and are having to move into self preservation mode.

What about big companies? Aren't they 'all' reporting record earnings? Yes, earnings are great, but it seems like most have seen business slow a little, so Q2 guidance has been a little disappointing, and virtually all companies have expressed some concern about margins. If you are concerned about margins you aren't hiring.

So, we continue to believe that 429k report is worse than people want to make it sound (the old 450k rule of thumb is outdated), and this reversal is the positive trend is real and part of another wave of job weakness. Currently expectations for next Friday's NFP is 183k. I think the number will be 160k, but in this world it makes no difference since that will encourage belief in QE3 which will trigger dollar weakness which will cause stocks to go up. Since its hard to go long stocks with this logic, it leaves me looking at precious metals.

[copious.abundance]

Weird stuff going on here. Claims jumped a whopping 43K, but there seems to be special circumstances as noted below. Sorry to inform DP before he posts yet another screaming, obnoxious, spoiled-brat-not-getting-his-way post, but if you look at the history of initial claims, the beginning of new recessions do not start with sudden bursts up like we've seen in the past few weeks, in those cases the rise tends to be more gradual.

LINK
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') Labor Department official attributed the surprise surge in claims last week to spring break layoffs in New York, which added 25,000, and the start of an emergency benefits program in Oregon, which brought in new claimants, including some already on the regular programs.

There were also additional claims from the auto sector, the official said, adding that there could have been some small claims related to the tornadoes that struck parts of the country. However, he said such claims would normally go into a parallel program.

The New York spring break fell outside the dates the department uses for seasonal adjustments to account for the holiday nationwide.

"The increases are beyond what seasonal factors expected and that is causing claims to go up," the official said.

[Daniel_Plainview]

U.S. Jobless Claims Soar by a Stunning 43K to 8-month High of 474,00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ew unemployment claims skyrocketed last week to an eight-month high, government data showed on May 5 in a report that sank recovery hopes on the eve of the key April employment report. New claims for unemployment insurance benefits leaped to a whopping 474,000 in the week ending April 30, a 10% increase from the prior week, the Labor Department reported.

The seasonally adjusted weekly indicator has increased in three of the four weeks in April. It was the highest claims number since mid-August 2010's 488,000. The rise surprised most analysts who had forecast a decline, to 400,000 claims, and sent a shudder through the U.S. equity and oil markets as investors fretted about a slowdown in the world's largest economy.

Growth fell to an annual rate 1.8% in the first quarter from 3.1%in the 2010 fourth quarter, well below the pace needed to spur job creation amid recovery from the Great Recession.

The jobless claims report is "a disaster" and foreshadows gloomy unemployment data on Friday, Jon Ogg at 24/7WallSt.com warned. "This is markedly heading the wrong way."

Most analysts expect the Labor Department will report 185,000 nonfarm jobs were created, a drop of 14% from March, and that unemployment held at March's 8.8% rate, after four months of decline.

The jobless claims report came on the heels of another weaker-than-expected jobs number. Payrolls firm ADP said on May 4 that the U.S. private sector added a modest 179,000 jobs in April, well below expert expectations.

IndustryWeek

[Daniel_Plainview]

MarketWatch: Double-dip recession is now undeniable


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he ISM’s service-sector index dropped to 52.8 from 57.3 in March. New orders plunged to 52.7, the lowest reading since December 2009, from 64.1 in the prior month. And the employment index dropped to 51.9 from 53.7 a month earlier. First-time jobless claims surged by 43,000 to 474,000 in the week ending April 30th, which was the highest reading since August. And the four-week moving average rose to 431,250 from 409,000. But perhaps most importantly, more evidence of an official double dip in home prices was found in a report from Clear Capital. The report stated that its monthly index is now below the prior all-time low set in March 2009. ... Year-over-year national home prices are down 5%. Home prices have dropped 11.5% in the last nine months, a rate of decline not seen since 2008. The saddest news of all is the fact that over 25% of all homes with a mortgage are underwater on that loan.

MarketWatch

[misterno]

I work in energy industry in Houston and supposedly employees are encouraged to apply to open positions within my company and for the last 3 years I have been applying for upper positions only to end up hearing the hiring manager saying "well, we are getting hundreds of resumes from outsiders. Did you know that there are people out there with PHDs applying for this position paying $60K and they are willing to pay for their air ticket just to have an interview? Sorry pal, they have more experience than you"

So no go for me. I mean jesus, people with PHDs applying for a $60K job??? WTF??? How am I supposed to climb the corporate ladder while racing with all these unemployed PHDs? Thank god, our company stopped sponsoring H1Bs3 years ago, otherwise I had to compete with 1BN Indian engineers as well.

The US govt has to terminate H1B, OPT and green card channels immediately. What can be more stupid than to pay a salary to a foreigner where as same job can be done and I mean it by an American to which us govt/state ends up paying unemployment insurance. The whole system is totally immensely F!@#$% up!!!!

[copious.abundance]

Looks like those special circumstances the past few weeks are starting to unwind.

>>> Claims back down to 434K <<<

Yes, the double-dip recession has been deniable, just as it has for the past year or more.

Should be back under 400K within a few weeks, maybe earlier.