by kublikhan » Mon 25 Apr 2011, 17:10:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'I')t hasn't got so much to do with peak oil as it has to do with the aging of America and the relatively young, highly educated, extremely motivated (not to mention HU-phuking-MONGOUS) Chinese population.
China is aging faster than the US is. Further, unlike the US, China is getting old before it gets rich:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')INCE the 1970s China’s birth rate has plummeted while the number of elderly people has risen only gradually. As a result its “dependency ratio”—the proportion of dependents to people at work—is low. This has helped to fuel China’s prodigious growth. But this “demographic dividend” will peak in 2010.
It shows that from 1975 - 2010, China's one child policy helped create an economically-beneficial situation whereby the proportion of dependents in the population fell over time. Thus the country had increasingly more workers (producing economic output) per dependent (consuming output).
However, 2010 and onwards is when it's time to pay the piper. The proportion of elderly dependents will enter a multi-decade growth phase, whereby there will be increasing numbers of non-working dependents for each working-age person to support. Thus what was once a substantial tailwind reverses into a GDP-grinding headwind, starting next year.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or three decades China's one-child policy helped power this nation's economic rise. With fewer mouths to feed, families saved. Poverty fell. Living standards improved. But a social experiment that worked well in some respects is now threatening the country's hard-won gains. China's working-age population -- the engine behind its prolific growth -- will start shrinking within a few years.
Meanwhile, the ranks of elderly are projected to soar. By the middle of this century, fully a third of China's population will be age 60 or older, compared with 26% in the United States. China's projected 438 million senior citizens will outnumber the entire U.S. population.
With fewer workers to support an aging society in need of care, China faces the same demographic squeeze confronting Western nations. The difference: China's family-tinkering policy has accelerated a shift that the country is ill-prepared to manage and finance. "The problem is the age wave is coming while China is still relatively poor," said Richard Jackson of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. "China may be the first major country to grow old before it grows rich."
Advances in family planning, nutrition and healthcare have resulted in longer life spans and fewer babies across much of the globe. The populations of developing regions such as Latin America and Asia are still much younger than those of U.S. and European societies. But they're aging much more quickly, lacking the time and resources to stitch together old-age social safety nets on par with those of rich, industrialized nations. Despite its dazzling economic growth, China is still a low-income country. Its per-capita GDP in 2008 was just over $5,000, one-ninth that of the United States.
there's no question that the one-child policy reduced fertility faster and sooner, a process some have dubbed "premature aging."