by The_Toecutter » Thu 31 Mar 2011, 19:49:22
To add to JR3P's statement, Argonne National Laboratories quoted $250/kWh in autmotive mass production for lithium ion... in 2003.
LiFePO4 batteries are the closest any EV sized battery has come to high volume production(besides lead acid), and the price of bulk orders is in the $300/kWh range(Or, about $9,000 for a pack to give a converted Ford Taurus a realistic 80-100 mile highway range, or a streamlined composite-bodied midsized car a 200+ mile range). Imagine what real automotive volume would do. While the shelf life truly remains to be seen with this chemistry(due to commercial examples being semi-recent), it may be 20 years or more; we know for a fact today it is at least 5 years as evidenced by a number of conversions that started using them back then and are still using them.
JR3P himself is driving such a LiFePO4 conversion right now. Although it is a conventional-bodied car with a small pack(probably around $4500 worth of batteries?), it is still getting 50-60 miles range and performance is good. I personally think his pack will last 100,000 miles or more. Even if it lasts only 40,000 miles, the lack of engine maintenance will still make the vehicle a huge money saver over its gasoline counterpart in the long term, and when replacement time finally does arrive, better/cheaper tech may be available at the consumer level.
NiMH are proven to last at least a decade in EV applications though(a few electric Toyota RAV4s with packs exceeding 150,000 miles life, Southern California Edison studies confirming repeated 80,000+ mile pack life, ect), and even with the nickel shortage we have, high volume could still yield $300/kWh today(UC Davis quoted $225/kWh in 2003, Rob Stemple, formerly of GM, quoted $150/kWh in 1998). These are robust and proven, but due to political reasons, unavailable for hobbyists and small start-ups.
Battery technology is the biggest technical 'hurdle' to EV adoption, but it is not a hurdle that any longer involves real compromise, either, and dare I say that the technology for a 200+ mile range EV at an affordable price existed in 1996. James Worden's Solectria Sunrise would have been a $20,000 car in volume *with* its NiMH pack; the automakers wouldn't touch it, and now a few gurus in the field, such as Lee Hart, are trying to revive this car as a kit(it's streamlining is good enough to allow real-world highway ranges of 100 miles with ~1000 lbs of lead acid batteries; a V6 non-hybrid gasoline version would probably yield 60 mpg highway).
LiFePO4 may prove to be even better than NiMH as well; the materials are more abundant, for one thing. 60 Wh/kg is good enough to make a car with a realistic 150 mile range(or 200+ miles hypermiling). 100 Wh/kg is what today's 'cheap' off the shelf LiFePO4 are capable of, and the lithium ion batteries used in the Tesla Roadster are roughly 160 Wh/kg.
There are prototype batteries from SION and other companies claiming in excess of 200 Wh/kg, but very rarely are they third party tested. The theory behind them is sound, at least.
We don't need a better battery so much as we need someone to start producing the cars. Good thing Nissan and Mitsubishi are at least looking at this now, even if their efforts are still subpar to those of some hobbyists 15 years ago that had to make due with less resources and inferior technology yet got better range/performance for less money than the cars Nissan/Mitsubishi are ready to sell. At least Nissan and Mitsubishi are giving the technology a chance... finally. I'd be inclined to buy one if I hadn't sunk my money into the GT6. The Volt is an overweight, overcomplicated, overpriced joke that would have been cheaper to build as a pure EV with 150 miles range, but I am curious about GM's electric Cruze concept(it doesn't have very good aerodynamics though and that will hurt it dearly on battery pack cost unless GM uses off the shelf large format LiFePO4 batteries, which I don't think it is doing).
My project car is sitting in another state waiting for me to order a battery pack and a controller for it and finally test it and drive it. I can't wait... 250 miles range is possible for a $12k non-automotive-volume pack in the right car; maybe I'll be the first to prove it(on a side note, Dave Cloud has demonstrated in excess of 200 miles range at a steady 65 mph, including hills, in a lead acid battery powered Geo Metro with extensive streamlining and a 1900 lb pack, and lead acid batteries are a highly outdated technology. Is 200 miles range not good enough? A car like his could have been done in the 1970s on a truck chassis with a streamlined body). The hobbyists, with at most 5 figure budgets are the ones setting the world records in performance(such as John Wayland) or range(James Worden, Dave Cloud) when the auto manufacturers have billions of dollars at their disposal. High school kids were building EVs with a real world range of 100 miles 15 years ago, and 150 miles range in hypermiling conditions(See Tour De Sol entires "Solar Bolt", "Spyder Juice", ect all using golf cart batteries).
I keep hoping the auto industry will see the light and actually follow it, and they are starting to glimpse it. Whether or not they will follow through with it when the ICE is their cash cow remains to be seen. This late in the game, I don't think more than a few ten thousand highway capable EVs will be sold before collapse to 3rd world living conditions has occured, but hopefully I'm wrong on that. This technology has the potential to eliminate about 40% of our oil consumption before we even need to compromise(and we should), but for it to be effective, we have to have it in the process of implementation *before* peak oil due to the slow rate our auto fleet turns over, and we have already passed peak light sweet crude, and the economy already is in a state of collapse...
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson