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Oil to climb on growing demand, reduced spare capacity: GoldmanPlatts / July 7, 2011
Global banking and securities firm Goldman Sachs said Thursday it was expecting considerable oil price upside in the next 6-12 months as rising demand fueled by improved global economic growth cut into OPEC spare capacity.
"With world economic growth continuing to drive oil demand growth well in excess of non-OPEC production growth, the oil market continues to draw on inventories and OPEC spare capacity in order to balance," Goldman Sachs said in its Commodity Watch report.
"In our view, it is only a matter of time before inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand, keeping it in line with available supply."
As such, Goldman Sachs has now forecast a WTI crude price of $111.00/b in three months, $115.00/b in six months and $126.50/b in 12 months, this compares with $108.00/b, $114.50/b and $126.50/b forecasts from its May 24 Commodity Watch report.
For Brent crude, Goldman Sachs said its three, six and 12-month forecasts were now to $117.00/b, $120.00/b and $130.00/b. In its May 24 report Goldman had forecast prices of $115.00/b, $120.00/b and $130.00/b, respectively. ...
... "We expect this export demand to continue this summer, likely supported by diesel-fired electricity generation demand in China and Japan."