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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The first energy crisis--before my time

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Unread postby retiredguy » Thu 19 May 2005, 13:57:55

I second what Cash said. Where I lived, I never saw a gas line. Sundays were a problem if one hadn't made provision for the fact that no gas stations would be open.

I was driving a Corolla at the time, so I was getting at least 30 mpg. I was living at near poverty level, but so were all of my friends since we had just graduated from college with liberal arts degrees and businesses weren't hiring. Even as poor as we were, I don't remember gas costs as particularly traumatic. But then again, my work commute was short and we were on a bus line.
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Unread postby pup55 » Thu 19 May 2005, 14:17:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Average Algerian Schmoe went from being able to buy enough food for his family to not being able to even afford unleavened bread.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o do you think it could happen in North America as well?


I don't know.

Something pretty similar happened in Argentina a few years ago, and this did indeed cause people to take to the streets. Riots, summary executions, thuggery, other mischief, so I think there is nothing in the water or culture in Algiers that makes the populace more or less likely to riot when confronted with something like this.

It has been many years since Americans were desperate enough to participate in full-scale civil disruption. We had the conversation the other day regarding the riots in the late 60's (racial and/or economically driven), so we have it in us.

An interesting test case might be this pension issue, with the airlines and auto companies on the brink of disaster. If the old-timers lose their pensions, taking to the streets is an option, as apparently comical as that sounds.
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Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 19 May 2005, 14:33:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')n interesting test case might be this pension issue, with the airlines and auto companies on the brink of disaster. If the old-timers lose their pensions, taking to the streets is an option, as apparently comical as that sounds.


Anybody remember the Grannies from Hell sketch on Monty Python?
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Unread postby oowolf » Thu 19 May 2005, 17:48:58

I live in one of the poorest counties in the US. For years I drove $100 barely functioning beaters with fake plates, no license or insurance. There are many here today doing this-the big difference is many now carry semiautomatic weapons and a don't fk with me attitude and the local cops are getting the message.
Gasoline shortage? I got the point back in '73.
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Unread postby RockHind » Thu 19 May 2005, 20:24:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') live in one of the poorest counties in the US. For years I drove $100 barely functioning beaters with fake plates, no license or insurance. There are many here today doing this-the big difference is many now carry semiautomatic weapons and a don't fk with me attitude and the local cops are getting the message.


I often wonder how well this strategy works compared to the get a license pay insurance and register your car strategy.

The up side would be no time wasted at the DMV or tag agency, and no money wasted with insurance agencies or registration offices. The down side would be time spent in jail, and occasionally sourcing new hundred dollar cars and fake tags.

I guess it depends on what the punishments are in your locality, in California it may be a capitol offense, and I think they are getting stricter here in Florida.

I went the no insurance no registration hundred dollar car route for a coupe of years in my youth, but was lucky enough to never have been pulled over. A friend was given an old 1960 somthing AMC matador that was owned by an elderly gentelman who had passed away. The elderly gentleman had not registered the car since about five years before he passed, and my friend kept up that trend when the elderly gentleman's relatives gave him the car. We would park it on the street and leave the keys hidden in the car and who ever needed it would hop in and away you go. We finally had to dispose of the car when its oil use made it uneconomical to drive.

Currently I am a lot more sissymafied and dont even move my truck with out everything down to tag lights, working trailer lights and red flags on stuff sticking out more than four feet past the rear, and it seems I can't go more than six months without ugly confrontations with law enforcement.

What were your experiences oowolf, or any one else who has gone this route?
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Unread postby jimmydean » Thu 19 May 2005, 22:35:36

In 2005 dollars ~92 bbl I believe so we're a bit off the mark of the 70's.

Commutes are most definitely longer than back in the 70's. Expansion beyond suburbs yet job concentration in the city.

PO will be devastating but at the same time may bring us back to a better way of living in the end.
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welcome back kotter

Unread postby seldom_seen » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 16:58:20

Image
[URL=http://apnews.myway.com/article/20050816/D8C12CK01.html]
July Inflation Jumps on Rising Gas Prices[/URL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ASHINGTON (AP) - Consumer prices shot up in July, reflecting higher prices for gasoline and other energy products while output at the nations' factories, mines and utilities slowed sharply.

This is totally retro! stagflation is back.

If we would have only listened to Jimmy Carter. Jimmy Jimmy Jimmy! Jimmy!

From his energy speech to the nation in 1977:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f we wait, and do not act, then our factories will not be able to keep our people on the job with reduced supplies of fuel. Too few of our utilities will have switched to coal, our most abundant energy source. We will not be ready to keep our transportation system running with smaller, more efficient cars and a better network of buses, trains and public transportation. We will feel mounting pressure to plunder the environment. We will have a crash program to build more nuclear plants, strip-mine and burn more coal, and drill more offshore wells than we will need if we begin to conserve now. Inflation will soar, production will go down, people will lose their jobs. Intense competition will build up among nations and among the different regions within our own country. If we fail to act soon, we will face an economic, social and political crisis that will threaten our free institutions.
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Re: welcome back kotter

Unread postby Eli » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 17:05:30

Yup,

Now comes the bad times. This when the masses start to realize that the economy is heading for the toilet.

October is going to be a bad month.
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Re: welcome back kotter

Unread postby MicroHydro » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 18:03:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f we fail to act soon, we will face an economic, social and political crisis that will threaten our free institutions.


Too late. The free institutions are long gone. The US is a police state run by insane Likudniks and Rapture freaks, threatening to launch a nuclear attack on a third world nation.
"The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
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Re: welcome back kotter

Unread postby aflurry » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 18:24:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'I')f we would have only listened to Jimmy Carter. Jimmy Jimmy Jimmy! Jimmy!


http://www.fullnotedesign.com/WedMP3s/J ... aysYes.mp3
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Re: welcome back kotter

Unread postby Klatuu » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 18:27:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')oo late. The free institutions are long gone. The US is a police state run by insane Likudniks and Rapture freaks, threatening to launch a nuclear attack on a third world nation.


MicroHydro

Unfortunately, you are quite correct in your observation. Sad, isn't it?
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Re: welcome back kotter

Unread postby pup55 » Wed 17 Aug 2005, 15:51:45

Travolta

Some estimates say that Travolta has gone from 160, when he did Grease, to about 270 currently. That's a pretty good definition of "inflation".
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Re: welcome back kotter

Unread postby NEOPO » Wed 17 Aug 2005, 22:39:50

"ooooooooh oooooooooh mr kotter!!!" :o

now explain to all the kids what that means :)

Carter is/was and still is the man in my book.
Is he still out there building homes for poor people?

His energy speechs are more chilling now then ever retrospectively.
Sadly, I was only a child then and thus it took 25+ years for those words to make sense.....lets hope this kind of learning curve isnt the norm 8O

Due to conservative republican smeer campaigns I was aware at an early age that jimmys brother was a an alcoholic :cry:
Sad isnt it?

Bastards filling our heads with nonsense and video game distractions!!!

Father - the sleeper has awaken !!!! :twisted:
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Re: welcome back kotter

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 17 Aug 2005, 22:43:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', ':')!:
When do the wage/price freezes start ?


Hopefully never.

It was the insanely foolish policies of wage/price freezes and gas rationing that lead to shortages.

Normally the price would have kept going up until someone was booted out of the market.
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Re: welcome back kotter

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 17 Aug 2005, 23:49:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', 'I')f there's shortages, everyone suffers, if the price is allowed to skyrocket, only the poor suffer. The poor vote (technically) so I wouldn't make any bets against a repeat of the 1970's (at least in the beginning).


Are you sure about that?

Poor people rarely bother to vote. And when they do, there are ways of disposing of those ballots.

Wage/price controls only cause shortages and misery. I doubt the current administration would make the same mistake.

However, a leftist regime in Washington might attempt a price "control" system. If they do that, I suggest stocking up.
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Re: welcome back kotter

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Thu 18 Aug 2005, 11:09:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'C')arter is/was and still is the man in my book.

Speaking about Carter books have you seen this:
http://www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov/museu ... rter.phtml
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Re: welcome back kotter

Unread postby aflurry » Thu 18 Aug 2005, 14:29:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', ':')!:
When do the wage/price freezes start ?


Hopefully never.

It was the insanely foolish policies of wage/price freezes and gas rationing that lead to shortages.

Normally the price would have kept going up until someone was booted out of the market.


... can you elaborate on this reasoning? At first glance it seems to me that price freezes and rationing should have the opposite effect of one another. Am I confused? Maybe they would both be instituted at the same time in an attempt to nullify the effects of the other? At any rate, if the overall effort is made to decrease usage rates while maintaining reduced availability for essential needs, then how does this lead to shortages? Overall, less is used.... unless you want to fall back on the old lower price=less profit=less incentive to explore=shortages routine... because it seems like that argument has been beaten to death.

1. the process only means a steeper decline curve post peak.
2. the economic instability in the meantime from periodic spikes has a destructive effect on the economic viability of actual people, who have slower recovery rates than abstracted economic variables..

A certain amount of market control of essentials: health care, sometimes food, sometimes energy, provides a stable platform to ride out crises.

What is it about the sublime-and-perfect-in-the-eyes-of-god fee-market that so captures people's imaginations? I don't understand.
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Re: welcome back kotter

Unread postby kmann » Thu 18 Aug 2005, 16:04:31

Just hand out 200,000,000 WIN buttons. That will fix it.
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Re: welcome back kotter

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Thu 18 Aug 2005, 17:45:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', ':')!:
When do the wage/price freezes start ?


Hopefully never.

It was the insanely foolish policies of wage/price freezes and gas rationing that lead to shortages.

Normally the price would have kept going up until someone was booted out of the market.


... can you elaborate on this reasoning? At first glance it seems to me that price freezes and rationing should have the opposite effect of one another. Am I confused? Maybe they would both be instituted at the same time in an attempt to nullify the effects of the other? At any rate, if the overall effort is made to decrease usage rates while maintaining reduced availability for essential needs, then how does this lead to shortages? Overall, less is used.... unless you want to fall back on the old lower price=less profit=less incentive to explore=shortages routine... because it seems like that argument has been beaten to death.

1. the process only means a steeper decline curve post peak.
2. the economic instability in the meantime from periodic spikes has a destructive effect on the economic viability of actual people, who have slower recovery rates than abstracted economic variables..

A certain amount of market control of essentials: health care, sometimes food, sometimes energy, provides a stable platform to ride out crises.

What is it about the sublime-and-perfect-in-the-eyes-of-god fee-market that so captures people's imaginations? I don't understand.


I should have seperated price controls from rationing.

Price controls create shortages.

If you force companies to sell gasoline at under the market price, they will be far less likely to go and get more supply.

But this time we can't just find more supply, so the second impact of price controls comes into play. Consumers don't get the message that gas is in short supply given price controls. If gas prices are frozen at $2 a gallon, people will consume far more gas than if the price was allowed to rise to $5+.

Why bother to conserve if the price is kept artificially low?

If you ration gasoline, people will get around the rationing. Even in WW2, people tried to get around the gas rationing. They were willing to eat less meat, butter, sugar, and trade in their knickers for the war effort...but they were unwilling to give up their gasoline.

So if the government tries to keep prices down by force, we will find ourselves with empty shelves and empty tanks.

When the price of gas rises to $5+, people will begin looking at their lives and finding ways to cut back. But if you never allow that to happen, the problem becomes "those damn ration cards" rather than a real shortage.

Does that explain it?
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Re: welcome back kotter

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 19 Aug 2005, 17:16:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I')f you force companies to sell gasoline at under the market price, they will be far less likely to go and get more supply.

But this time we can't just find more supply, so the second impact of price controls comes into play. Consumers don't get the message that gas is in short supply given price controls. If gas prices are frozen at $2 a gallon, people will consume far more gas than if the price was allowed to rise to $5+.

Why bother to conserve if the price is kept artificially low?

If you ration gasoline, people will get around the rationing. Even in WW2, people tried to get around the gas rationing. They were willing to eat less meat, butter, sugar, and trade in their knickers for the war effort...but they were unwilling to give up their gasoline.

So if the government tries to keep prices down by force, we will find ourselves with empty shelves and empty tanks.

When the price of gas rises to $5+, people will begin looking at their lives and finding ways to cut back. But if you never allow that to happen, the problem becomes "those damn ration cards" rather than a real shortage.

Does that explain it?


Thank you. This is at least coherent theory.

It does seem like price controls and rationing have to be employed together to make any sense.

I think your predictions of behavior rest on fairly large assumptions. For example, you could always point to examples of cheating, but the question is, would the WW2 era you refer to have turned out better or worse if prices rationing were not employed? Who knows? Due to the indiscriminate nature of price volitility it may have become prohibitively expensive for the military itself to wage war at that time. People may have been more apt to say, "Bloody 'ell. Fill'er up with petrol quick, and bugger the lot a' ya," and now they'd be eating bratwurst and mash. Without showing that the alternative would have been better, the argument doesn't do much for me.

And I have a counterexample: Housing price volitility has not priced people out of the market despite prices being currently far outside people's ability to pay. They could always put gas on credit.

I think your first comment above points exactly to the destructive effects of unfettered market management of critical and limited resources. It creates cycles of scarecity and glut. During scarecity, the high prices promote exploration, which opens the trickle to a river, but once that river starts flowing and the prices go down, the oil companies are still paying for that infrastructure investment, so now must sell even more at the lower cost to keep up with the financing, which in turn promotes overuse and waste, then depletes the source fields at a greater rate until they dry up and once again the prices rise, only now it is more destructive than before because consumers have arranged their lives around the availability of the cheap oil that the oil companies were virtually shoving down their throats before. They can't afford the rising oil prices, but they can't move their whole family to a more sustainable living arragement either because they are dependent on jobs, sschools, friends, family, etc. So they start buying on credit, hoping for that coming glut to help them out of the hole they have dug themselves into.... which pretty much brings us up to date. Except they may have to wait awhile for that glut.

I think that is a more pertinent prediction of people's behavior, because that is what actually happened. Thanks free market.
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