by Carlhole » Wed 02 Mar 2011, 13:58:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'W')hat I find interesting is how hopeful the futurist vision is, but I can't see how that fits with all the bad stuff going down right now.
(1) You cannot ever expect to reliably predict the future; all you can do is look at current trends.
(2) One can perceive a trend in peak oil, declining resources, eco-system destruction, de-speciation, over-population, etc.
(3) One can perceive a trend in accelerating science and technology
(4) If you extrapolate the first trend out into the future, you see doom
(5) If you extrapolate the second trend out into the future you see something like The Singularity and the end of humanity as we know it.
(6) To believe in either one completely is ridiculous since you can never reliably predict the future. The world is simply way too chaotic a place.
(7) These seemingly counter-poised trends are related by population growth. As population density increases, science and technology increase, slowly at first but with increasing momentum. As population increases, strains on the environment also occur, causing problems which, in turn, are met by humans with, you guessed it, science and technology.
(8) The exponential nature of increasing SciTech is due to this accruing scientific achievement which becomes recursive on itself in a number of fascinating ways. Science leads to better tools and knowledge, which leads to more scientific exploration, which yields better tools, questions, knowledge,
ad infinitum.
(9) If you completely believe in peak oil-style doom, then you MUST make a prediction as to when science and technology will peak and begin a decline. So far, it's doing nothing of the sort. Science is racing forward. We are living in scientific boom times. It's so obvious.
(10) No one on this site has ever made a serious assertion that Science has peaked or will peak soon. They can't.

This logarithmic chart illustrates the long haul of evolution. "Key Events" are those related to greater information processing - such as development of language, cooperation, etc. Hominids are obviously part of this long haul evolution as are modern humans. The long trend of evolution continues today in the form of human science & technology.
You can't have an Olduvai Gorge if Science continues to race ahead. No one has answered my years-long question: "If our imminent doom is assured, when will we see Peak Science?" Because there is sure no indication whatsoever that science is peaking in any way. In a crisis, the acceleration of sci/tech only increases.