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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

I think the US is "falling apart"

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Postby entropyfails » Wed 18 May 2005, 07:03:04

Allow me to regale you while dropping a bit on the anecdotal decay evidence pile. *grin* We have this drain along one of our bigger lanes for local traffic that has begun to sink. At first, they let it sink until it started to cause cars to “jump” the ramp the sinkhole made. Then they put one of those big orange and white sawhorses to mark it. A few weeks later, they filled it in with tar and rock. It continued to sink. A couple weeks after that, the sawhorse reappeared. After another week, a second sawhorse appeared on the other side marking the ever widening circumference of the sinkhole. It has been this way for a month now and all cars must swerve around these 2 markers in the roads. I’ll try to get a picture of this hilarious arrangement. They cannot fix it this year within budget constraints.

When driving on the roads here in MN, you can hit a pothole that can take out your tire on MN highways. I know because it happened to my girlfriend when we were in the car, from full tire to flat in less than 2 seconds.

MPR says 1/3 of MN roads need to be “rebuilt.”

I assume that roads in warmer climates last a bit longer due to the lack of freeze/thaw that causes most of the road issues around here. So in MN we get to see another side of global warming, in the winter it now thaws and freezes several times, completely destroying a roads ability to stay together. Add Peak Oil to this and…. well… We better fucking wake up.

Good luck!
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Postby cube » Wed 18 May 2005, 15:53:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('entropyfails', '.')..........

When driving on the roads here in MN, you can hit a pothole that can take out your tire on MN highways. I know because it happened to my girlfriend when we were in the car, from full tire to flat in less than 2 seconds.

....
Now I know why they have "auto shops" that don't fix cars, instead they just do tires and wheel alignments. I guess there's enough cars getting their wheels wacked out of alignment on poorly maintained roads to justify creating such specialized shops. :roll:

Big O tires and Just Tires are examples of such shops.
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Postby bobcousins » Wed 18 May 2005, 16:41:40

I love to bang on about Tainters collapse theory...so this is an ideal opportunity.

Creation of infrastructure leads to growth, but then maintenance requires further growth down the line. You are forced into ever growing capital investment - or abandon it. There is a good analytical extension of this in Greer's paper on catabolic collapse.

In London, the Roman system of drains and sewers fell into disrepair 400 AD or so, and London was without drains until about 1500 years later. The Victorian brick sewers are still in use today, and are obviously increasingly in need of replacement.

I keep seeing politicians etc saying "we need to spend X billion dollars repairing the infrastructure of Y", and I think "No!". If we attempt to maintain all this stuff we will head towards collapse. In fact, the best thing to do is to leave it to fall into disrepair.

Declining marginal return is our biggest enemy. If we are going to spend money, spend it on new sustainable infrastructure.
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Postby jaws » Wed 18 May 2005, 17:18:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'I') love to bang on about Tainters collapse theory...so this is an ideal opportunity.

Creation of infrastructure leads to growth, but then maintenance requires further growth down the line. You are forced into ever growing capital investment - or abandon it. There is a good analytical extension of this in Greer's paper on catabolic collapse.
Sounds a lot like the Solow model of economic growth. Under that model, capital accumulates (and the economy grows) up to the point where the rate of depreciation of the capital stock is equivalent to the rate of investment, then the economy stops growing. It's in any intermediate macroeconomics textbook if you're interested.
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Postby nero » Wed 18 May 2005, 17:54:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')reation of infrastructure leads to growth, but then maintenance requires further growth down the line. You are forced into ever growing capital investment - or abandon it. There is a good analytical extension of this in Greer's paper on catabolic collapse.


I'm familiar with Tainter but I don't understand what you're saying here. Why does maintenance require further growth. It requires a continuing investment of time and energy but why does that require growth?
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Postby cube » Thu 19 May 2005, 00:18:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', '.')..........

I keep seeing politicians etc saying "we need to spend X billion dollars repairing the infrastructure of Y", and I think "No!". If we attempt to maintain all this stuff we will head towards collapse. In fact, the best thing to do is to leave it to fall into disrepair.

........
This is one of the problems with Democracy (I'm not saying it would be any better with a different gov.) but the fact is the idea of maintaining existing infrastructure is not a very sexy idea.

A politician can get A LOT more votes by promising to build more infrastructure rather then fixing up the present one even if it's in really bad shape.
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Postby Leanan » Thu 19 May 2005, 09:21:44

Yes, I think we are facing Tainter's diminishing returns here. We never imagined, when we built the Interstate system, how difficult it would be to maintain them, never mind replace them. People are used to using these roads now. We cannot just close them for a few weeks to repave them, or replace the drains under them. So instead, we close half the lanes, a few hundred feet at time, and make the traffic share the remaining lanes. Because we're in such a rush to keep traffic moving and get the lanes open again, we use quick setting asphalt and the like, which doesn't last as long as the regular stuff. So the road's a mess again in a couple of years.

It's also become a lot harder to build a new road. The country is a lot more crowded now. There's little empty space to build a road, at least anywhere near where people want to go. Instead of farmland, it's all subdivisions, strip malls, and office parks - a lot more disruptive and expensive to take via eminent domain.
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Postby bobcousins » Thu 19 May 2005, 18:23:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', '
')I'm familiar with Tainter but I don't understand what you're saying here. Why does maintenance require further growth. It requires a continuing investment of time and energy but why does that require growth?


That's a good question, and one Tainter doesn't really answer in a satisfactory way. However, in the light of Solow's model (thanks for the heads up jaws), I think we can now see how the two tie together.

I guess the underlying reason is population growth. The added population plus depreciation cost puts a greater pressure on your resource base. To increase production more investment in infrastructure is required, which leads to further maintenance cost. I suppose if you froze population, then you might be able to manage without growth.

So I think this explains why a society, given an initial technological or organisational advantage, can develop an upward growth spiral, and increases in size and complexity. Inevitably it reaches a carrying capacity, and before that becomes vulnerable to fluctuations in production capacity due to climate, etc.

Tainters studies by observation, how various empires got locked into this spiral. The capital infrastructure becomes impossible to support without continued growth. Something has to give way. A sign of impending collapse is a desperate attempt to shore up the infrastructure. We haven't reached that point yet, but a key test will be to see how Western societies manage the health and pensions crisis.

It would be very interesting to see Tainters data reworked with a firmer economic model, but that would require someone cleverer than me. :wink:

The Roman empire is a relevant case here. The people demanded the benefits of the Empire; it was their ultimate downfall.
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Postby Kingcoal » Thu 19 May 2005, 20:19:30

Pennsylvania has never looked better. PA experienced this decay back in the 60's, 70's and 80's. This state went through fantastic job loss and industry loss back then. Since about '90 it's been all up hill. That's the light at the end of the tunnel, hitting bottom there is no where to go but up.

The decay you are talking about is a cyclical thing. I think a lot of people are talking about it today because areas other than the northeast are experiencing it for the first time.
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Postby MicroHydro » Thu 19 May 2005, 22:03:24

Silicon Valley is cyclical in nature. But, the recessions used to be brief. It has been 5 years since the bottom fell out of the dotcoms and we are still falling. So far 200,000 lost jobs and counting. This area is economically devastated.
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Postby arretium » Fri 20 May 2005, 00:29:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leaf', 'A')merica has become a nation not worth caring about "read Jim Kunstler on that".
I like his old saying...if a soldier gets shot in Iraq...sees blood come out of his body and thinks of home...what comes to his mind? A Chuck-E-Cheese between blacktop parking lots?
America is a throw away nation. And when PO hits in bloom..it will be not worth defending...not worth saving...not worth giving a damn about...
Take away the USD and whats left? Any culture?
We seen the USA wasn't even worth saving or investing our time in trying to help it...lost cause...We left Garbage Can nation of America....best move we ever made! Leaf


Have you even been in the military? Let me tell you what runs through his head. It's not McDonald's. It's: Am I gonna see my girl again? Am I gonna see my wife again? Am I gonna see my girlfriend again? Am I gonna see my mom again? I love my family. This is what he thinks about and just trying to prevent himself from passing out. He's also thinking about his buddy over there in the bushes who was also shoot, the one man in the world that had his back. A guy he literally trusted with his own life.

People don't think about Chuckecheese, come on. They think about the same thing every other person in war thinks about. They think about home.
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Postby entropyfails » Fri 20 May 2005, 03:29:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'T')he decay you are talking about is a cyclical thing. I think a lot of people are talking about it today because areas other than the northeast are experiencing it for the first time.


Needing to REPLACE 30% of your infrastructure (never mind repair, that sits at near 100%) doesn’t seem like a cyclical problem. It seems systemic to me.
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Postby mgibbons19 » Fri 20 May 2005, 07:46:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('arretium', 'P')eople don't think about Chuckecheese, come on. They think about the same thing every other person in war thinks about. They think about home.


Haven't been in the army. Just pointing out that you made Kunstler's point. K is assuming a soldier will think about home. And what is home now? Yes the loved ones are there. But the physical part is all chuckecheese strip mall sprawl.

K's next question then is "Was that worth dyiing for?"
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Postby mgibbons19 » Fri 20 May 2005, 08:02:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'S')ilicon Valley is cyclical in nature. But, the recessions used to be brief. It has been 5 years since the bottom fell out of the dotcoms and we are still falling. So far 200,000 lost jobs and counting. This area is economically devastated.


I've not been out that way since the crash. You guys aren't looking like Gary, Flint, Detroit quite yet I hope?
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Postby Claudia » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 21:03:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')ennsylvania has never looked better. PA experienced this decay back in the 60's, 70's and 80's. This state went through fantastic job loss and industry loss back then. Since about '90 it's been all up hill.


Yeah, but isn't a lot of it sprawl? Seems like the development is bypassing a lot of the old towns and creating exurban New Jersey-like communities.

We have three generations of family from Carbondale, I find it kind of depressing down there right now.
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Postby ubercrap » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 22:15:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leaf', 'A')merica has become a nation not worth caring about "read Jim Kunstler on that".
I like his old saying...if a soldier gets shot in Iraq...sees blood come out of his body and thinks of home...what comes to his mind? A Chuck-E-Cheese between blacktop parking lots?
America is a throw away nation. And when PO hits in bloom..it will be not worth defending...not worth saving...not worth giving a damn about...
Take away the USD and whats left? Any culture?
We seen the USA wasn't even worth saving or investing our time in trying to help it...lost cause...We left Garbage Can nation of America....best move we ever made! Leaf


Now hold on a minute, I don't think that Jim meant that America would never be a place worth caring about in the future, even if he meant that it wasn't today. My community isn't some ridiculous, bloated, generic suburban sprawl mess, it is a quiet, small, midwestern town with surprisingly decent community spirit. The local economy is based on light manufacturing and supplying the surrounding agricultural areas. I am worried about what will happen, as I know those closest to the lowest rung on the ladder will be hit by any problems first. Some of the people I know are already hurting financially just from the increase in gas prices recently.
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Postby marko » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 22:31:06

Just an observation that I live and work along I-95, the main north-south highway along the east coast of the US. The stretch of it near me is a ring road that forms a semicircle around Boston (like the Beltway around DC or the M 25 around London, except that Boston is on the coast, so it's a semicircle).

This is probably the most important freeway in Massachusetts, and when I drive it, I keep one eye on the road surface and swerve to avoid the numerous potholes. Some parts of the road are extremely rough with hundreds of small potholes that have been filled imperfectly with asphalt.

The reason for this is that it has become political suicide to talk about raising taxes, even here in left-leaning Massachusetts.

Not that I think taxes should be spent on freeways. Nor that I like having to drive this wretched road to work.

Just an observation that our existing infrastructure is decaying, and we are unable to invest in a new infrastructure that might help us to have a soft landing from peak oil, because Americans have accepted a government that prioritizes channeling the nation's wealth into the private coffers of the superrich.
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Postby Leanan » Sat 04 Jun 2005, 08:17:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he reason for this is that it has become political suicide to talk about raising taxes, even here in left-leaning Massachusetts.


It's more than that. The Interstates, like I-95, are mostly maintained by federal funding.

What's happened is that the Republicans are in charge now, and they are sticking it to "blue" states. Of course they are still collecting taxes from states like NY and MA, but it's going to "red" states like Nevada and Texas. It's Congress that determines where the money is spent, and the power in Congress has shifted south and west.

That's the irony of the tax debate. The red states, which are so virulantly anti-tax, are actually benefiting the most from taxes. It's the blue states that pay more in taxes than they ever get back.
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