[Lumpy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')It seems logical that inflating prices in basic commodities will generally hurt people on the low end of the ladder more than at the top and those living week to week sooner than those living below their means.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Queaks', 'M')ad magazine from my childhood " what , me worry?"

[Ayoob]

I don't care whether you buy into it or not. Frankly, I kind of hope you don't.

I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun YOU.

[Lumpy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob', 'I') don't care whether you buy into it or not. Frankly, I kind of hope you don't.

I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun YOU.

[Queaks]

Thanks for all of you who have answered so thoughtfully. I wasn't trying to paint the whole world with rose colored glasses, just that in my own corner of the world things seem to be alright, even good. Of course, should the economics/politics dictate that the supply is limited and even those with money to purchase would not be allowed to it would cramp my style as well. I live well, but am saving every month and plan to retire in a few years in a near off the grid mode as I can yet remain "connected". By this I mean I hope to spend the money for providing for my base power and utilities needs should the grid not be operational, but not planning for a survivalist mode, just a "be prepared" for power failures and etc. Kinda like having that whole house generator tied to the gas line today, but a bit more independent with off grid power sources as much as I can do with reasonable economics...

Yes I want others to do well and I am not wishing ill for anyone, and hope that society as a whole does well, but I guess my feelings are that at least for my remaining lifetime things will probably "muddle through" alright and normal life preparedness will allow a decent life for almost everyone (at least in the west). Do many of you actually see things declining quickly? yes I see the mid-east unrest , but I remember the American hostages in Iran many years ago too and several pundits painted that as the end of the "good times" too. Yet here we are. Somehow I think that things 30 years from now will not be materially different economically. I see no "doom" that is worse than the "doom" from years ago. Things will change, but change brings opportunity as well as strife for those who look for the patterns and new "order".

To answer the query of a couple posts, yes, most of my employees are paid well enough to trade commodities if they choose, certainly equities, and oil ETF's like the USO. Most make a decent six figure pay. The particular employee who was boycotting his gas purchase on a particular "gas out day" to protest has two BMWs; a series 7 and a 5. He is single and has more disposable income than I do, so he certainly could have bought the oil stocks and futures when I did if he chose to. But even someone not in his income bracket could have bought an oil equity as a "hedge", unless they were totally living hand to mouth, and that is a situation none of my employees are in.

I enjoy the banter here and many of you have perspectives that are unique and illuminating. thank you.

[lper100km]

Q: Your comments about all is well in your corner of the world is illuminating. You are obviously well off financially and feel secure that it will mitigate your personal inconveniences when tshtf. What you are really saying is that you are monetarily insulated and don’t give a damn. Either that or, more probably, that your lifestyle is so insulated from reality that you cannot see a problem if you fell over it or understand the consequences if you did.

Extending that analogy to the kind of lifestyle of those who run governments, the ‘establishment’, and the economy is scary. Are they so insulated from and blind to the inevitability of PO that it does not register at all? This would certainly explain a lot of the absence of PO news in the MSM and in government planning and the continuing attempts to dispel anxieties and maintain bau. Complacency in leaders is not a good thing as the consequences are ruinous for all. The UK is the only gov. that so far, has made any attempt to get to grips with the issue. Is the UK closer to an energy crisis than anyone cares to admit?

Monetary wealth may not buy you immunity from the effects of civil disruption resulting from sustained economic failure. Ostentation would almost certainly mark a person as a target. Prep now and you may make your wealth work for you in the long run. Take a tip from trading as an analogy – sell into a good market.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Adelaidewonderer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Queaks', 'M')aybe I have optimistic glasses on, but why would the government intervene when the free markets do it better?

[Questionmark]

On the topic of potential peak oil related disasters: It's simple economics; our economy runs on oil and as the price rises due to a supply squeeze then the economy declines until either reaching a sustainable level or a new primary energy source is discovered. I believe that the biggest risk to the U.S. is a USSR style collapse and fracturing. In all likelihood oil production peaked in 2005 and most credible sources expect terminal production decline to begin in the next few years (2012 is a popular estimate).

On the topic of free markets vs government intervention: Free markets tend to redistribute resources and wealth into the hands of a select privileged few. Why this happens is a hotly debated topic but the fact that it does occur is undeniable. This has drastic implications when it comes to energy and this is directly due to our dependence on oil as a nation. The market rations energy better so long as you believe that a privileged minority should be allowed to live in excess while millions of people starve and suffer. When it comes to declining oil supplies it's obvious that we can use it much more efficiently if we rationed and planned our use out beforehand, the real question is whose interests is our government likely to protect? I personally don't believe the government will be willing to ration energy and for this reason I consider a USSR style economic collapse all the more likely.

So assuming you agree with my assessment you have to consider how your business and livelihood would be affected by large amounts of civil unrest and a weakening federal government. And that's before you even consider a devaluing currency and the unsustainable ponzi scheme that is our current economic system.

[americandream]

The comparison with the USSR isn't a valid one. The collapse there was brought on by a prolonged war of ideologies between steady state modernity which is invariably less surplus endowed and capitalist modernity which had the surplus to see out the war. So to the extent that the USSR failed, it is becasue it was not as in surplus as the West. It's collapse was followed by a capitulation to free markets.

The USSR's failure was less one of compulsion and more one of defeat. The differences are subtle and it is here that dialectic materialism plays out.

[evilgenius]

You are right. For now your situation will not change much. In fact it actually has more opportunity, as you say, for creating wealth. The crises are playing out where people are less fortunate. Food prices rock poorer countries,we all cross our fingers and hold our breath, and their governments fall. Energy shortages brought on by a litany of reasons cause rolling blackouts and brownouts across the jungles of less economically fortunate climes. Overall uncertainty increases in the investment world, however, and you have to respond by increasing your diversity. An investor could be jacked if they don't diversify, but it does not have the same impact as a Molotov cocktail across the front of a tank or a bullet upside the brain.

I am not against you. Please don't interpret this as condemnation. I can see that your position does not come with only opportunity like a bushel of wheat in one hand, but also with responsibility like an anvil's weight in the other. The markets are cruel masters to them that think they can impose philosophical will upon them and just as tyrannical to those who didn't try to do that all the same over time.

[Queaks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'Y')ou are right. For now your situation will not change much. In fact it actually has more opportunity, as you say, for creating wealth. The crises are playing out where people are less fortunate. Food prices rock poorer countries,we all cross our fingers and hold our breath, and their governments fall. Energy shortages brought on by a litany of reasons cause rolling blackouts and brownouts across the jungles of less economically fortunate climes. Overall uncertainty increases in the investment world, however, and you have to respond by increasing your diversity. An investor could be jacked if they don't diversify, but it does not have the same impact as a Molotov cocktail across the front of a tank or a bullet upside the brain.

I am not against you. Please don't interpret this as condemnation. I can see that your position does not come with only opportunity like a bushel of wheat in one hand, but also with responsibility like an anvil's weight in the other. The markets are cruel masters to them that think they can impose philosophical will upon them and just as tyrannical to those who didn't try to do that all the same over time.

[Nano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Queaks', 'I') don't see the catalyst that will have a disruptive change in the 50-60 yr old's lifestyle (assuming an appropriate nest egg), at least for our lifetimes. Do you?

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Queaks', 'I') don't see the catalyst that will have a disruptive change in the 50-60 yr old's lifestyle (assuming an appropriate nest egg), at least for our lifetimes. Do you?

[otter_17]

Hey guys,

I want to learn more about peak oil, refine my production model, and maybe speak my mind every once in a while.

One tool that I would like to bring to the discussion is a production spreadsheet that I made from the EIA International Petroleum Monthly 2010 figures. The user can extrapolate the production curve for each country based on recent trends, estimated reserves, or whatever. The user can put in the expected production for 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 for two cases: high estimate and low estimate. All these countries are added up and a curve is produced for planet Earth. I'm sure somebody has developed something similar already, but creating my own spreadsheet was something that allowed me to learn about the data myself. The next step is to learn more about the Hubbert curve and how Dr. Hubbert used it to model his projections. For now, I use a reserves estimate and form the future projection based on how the curve eats into the reserves and possible new discoveries over time.

I have looked at several gov't reports (such as the US military JOE report 2010, Hirsch Report, etc) as well as peak oil articles that have been springing up more recently.

I'm a new electrical engineer that has looked at this stuff about as objectively as I could. I'm a big renewable energy proponent, and I will do what it takes to help make my president's challenge of 80% renewables by 2035 a reality. I'm preparing for the worst, but at the same time I'll do my part to ensure that electric cars become better than gas cars and wind turbines better than coal plants. In my future, green tech will kick the crap out of our current fossil fuel tech, based on cost, clean air, everything.

Time to get to work...

[mos6507]

One thing Monte started talking about in his waning days (he does check in here it seems once a year or two) is that employment is itself a factor of our high-energy consumptive lifestyle. So as we're forced to conserve and powerdown, the jobs will be gone forever. You know, mechanics, car salesmen (like my dad), the Geek Squad at Best Buy, etc...

What that means is that energy acts as a form of welfare. It is what provides jobs for people to make things people don't need, provide services that people don't need, etc....

So what is left when we strip away all the nonessential economic activity?

We saw huge unemployment during the Great Depression, for instance. How many jobs does a society really _need_ in order to function at some basic level of subsistence?

Not a heck of a lot, apparently. Not a lot back during the depression, and perhaps even fewer now thanks to all this automation we now enjoy.

This to me is as much an argument as one can make to reruralize and focus on primary production and the informal economy. But the primary refuge from astronomical unemployment people will seek out is to live a ghetto-like existence in a pillbox apartment the city. Sure, the jobs may be clustered around the city, but think of all the cut-throat competition. You'll be sweeping floors and serving fries for a living and sleeping 20 to a room.

You'd really need to forge a whole new informal economy to escape that sort of trap, which I don't see happening many places.

As long as we rely on big business for our jobs, there's no end to the downsizing.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('otter_17', 'I')n my future, green tech will kick the crap out of our current fossil fuel tech, based on cost, clean air, everything.

[otter_17]

Yeah, I hear you on the pessimism with renewables. That's why I preceded my statement with "in my future". Half of me knows that we don't have enough time, while the other half knows that I have to go down swinging. Hell, even if I'm completely wrong and everything turns out fine, I will have devoted my time to providing energy for a modern civilization that can last for hundreds of years. We will have to move to a sustainable society someday, though we may have squandered far too much time.

And I hear you on the agriculture end as well. I grew up on a farm in Ohio, and I have seen firsthand how reliant we are on petroleum to do nearly all of our agriculture in the United States. On our dairy farm, we didn't use a lot of chemical fertilizers, since we had enough animals to fertilize the fields via manure spreading, but many large scale farms in the breadbasket use a substantial amount. Plus, there is absolutely no way to do large scale farming without running a tractor or some other equipment. There are no electric tractors that I know of, so if diesel fuel supplies become scarce enough that farmers scale back their production nationwide, we have a substantial problem for folks living in the cities.

I also agree that food-based biofuels are not the answer. There was promising research during the Carter administration for bio-diesel based on algae production. Unfortunately, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is just now revisiting some of that work, and has found that some of the work has been lost. The problem is scaling up the production and the time to do the engineering.

Thanks for the welcome, if I may ask a few questions...

Can someone point me to a thread on the forum that gives projections for oil production in million bbl per day for the oil producing countries (for 2015, 2020, etc)? Plus, I would be willing to share my spreadsheet with others who want toy with it to create their own projections. Are there peak oil spreadsheets available for download somewhere?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('otter_17', '
')I'm a new electrical engineer that has looked at this stuff about as objectively as I could. I'm a big renewable energy proponent, and I will do what it takes to help make my president's challenge of 80% renewables by 2035 a reality. I'm preparing for the worst, but at the same time I'll do my part to ensure that electric cars become better than gas cars and wind turbines better than coal plants. In my future, green tech will kick the crap out of our current fossil fuel tech, based on cost, clean air, everything.

Time to get to work...

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('otter_17', '[')b]Half of me knows that we don't have enough time, while the other half knows that I have to go down swinging.

[Pops]

Hi Otter, welcome.

If you cared to you could share your spreadsheet via google docs.