[nocar]

yes, gnm, if we convert the price per bushel to price per weight and figure the calorie content, I am sure wholesale wheat comes out very cheap. From my calorie content tables, one kilogram of wheat would contain over 4000 food calories, enough to sustain an office worker for at least two days or a big person with hard physical labor for one day.

Now all we need to know - how many kg of wheat does a bushel contain? I have learned it once but forgot.

nocar

[MalcolmV]

Test weight for wheat is 60 lb/bu. 60/2.2 = 27.3 kg.
Corn (maize) 56 lb/bu
Soybean 60 lb/bu

As quality decreases, ie. grains not as well filled, test weight decreases.

Minimum test weights for grains under the Canada Grain Act

Bushels, Test Weights and Calculations, Ohio State University FactSheet

[nocar]

Thank you, very much MalcolmV. I looked up the links, a somewhat complicated businesss.

Of course the large US trade markets have to use their own unique volume measurement for something most people would think of in weights! Which also makes the volume to mean different weights for different qualities.

So one bushel is about 27 kg which would meet the complete food calorie needs of an office worker for about two months and a for a very hard working big man for one month.

Depending on quality (red wheat on the Minnesota board the most expensive) the current record would mean a cost of 5-10 dollars per month for an office worker's complete calorie needs and 10-20 dollars per month for the big guy hand-chopping wood all day every day. Or $60-120 per year for the average, office-type person.

Of course in real life most of us do not buy wheat per bushel.
For me it is usually in bread and spaghetti.

A loaf of bread contains about a pound or ½kg of wheat flour, which means you get 60 loaves per bushel or one loaf is 0.017 bushels.
The wheat in one loaf of bread costs 17-34 cents, at the current wholesale record. Although I suppose milling necessarily adds to the cost.

One serving of spaghetti is 70 grams, according to the information on a package in my cupboard. Assuming spaghetti is pure wheat (about 90% true I would guess), the wholesale wheat cost of a serving would be 2.5-5 cents.

Although the current wheat price record is four times higher than the price about five years ago, I do not feel I face starvation due to the price of wheat. Not yet anyway. And even if the prices of other grains and soybeans have gone up in a similar way.

Meat is in a sense made of grains and soybeans. So the price of meat might double or triple (I can not believe that all of the cost is grain. Handling and butchering also cost). That will hurt for lots of people, I believe.

nocar

[Tuike]

Wheat prices have risen today maximum amount, 60 cents, nearing record.

[DantesPeak]

Wheat up 25% today (that's just today only)


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')heat Rally Hits a New Gear
Contract Soars 25% On Supply Worries;
Record for a Bushel
By TOM POLANSEK
February 26, 2008

CHICAGO -- Supply fears sparked a rally in Minneapolis Grain Exchange wheat futures, with the nearby contract climbing nearly 25% on the day.

MGE March wheat surged to a record $25 a bushel before closing up $4.75, at $24 a bushel. Most-active May MGE wheat rose by the exchange-imposed daily limit of 90 cents, at $17.0825 a bushel.

News that Kazakhstan plans to curb grain exports by imposing custom duties starting March 1 was seen as supportive for wheat as the country has been a tough competitor for export business to Egypt, a major buyer on the world market, said Shawn McCambridge, analyst for Prudential Bache in Chicago.

The majority of Kazakhstan's grain exports are wheat, and the wheat is typically high quality, analysts said. According to the Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service, Kazakhstan is the sixth-largest exporter of wheat, behind the U.S., Canada, Russia, Argentina and the European Union.

Tight supplies of high-protein hard red spring wheat, which is used to make bread and traded at the MGE, have underpinned the market this year. The current rally stems from mid-January, after the Agriculture Department said seedings of fall-planted winter wheat didn't expand as much as expected, despite strong prices.

Since the end of last year, March wheat is up about 132%. Demand remains strong for high-quality grain and cash prices are strong, traders said.

"You can't really find that wheat anywhere in some locations," said Terry Reilly, analyst for Citigroup in Chicago.

[Tuike]

Wheat futures are at record prices.
CBT: 1209
KCB: 1247
time: 11:15

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commod ... tures.html

[mattduke]

All this rising wheat but my loaves still are coming out kind of dense.

[Tuike]

Wheat has now risen the maximum amount of 90 cents today.

CBT: 1214
KCB: 1265
time: 13:14

[oowolf]

Will the world really run out of wheat by May?
http://farmingforum.co.uk/forum/YaBB.pl ... 3955472/14

[Tuike]

KCB is over 1300.

[nocar]

So, the current CBT record is $13.495 on Feb. 27.

And the wheat traders expect a 'massive crop':

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world is focused on this massive crop that's coming in,'' said Louise Gartner, owner of Spectrum Commodities in Beavercreek, Ohio.

[nocar]

I believe it is time to revive this thread. Regrettable, I did not follow the descent of the wheat prices after the record in 2008. However, now wheat is going up again, and the current record for this decade (according to Bloomberg) seems to be today's: CBT at 870 US dollars per bushel and KCB at 965.

[nocar]

Correction of above: It is 870 and 975 US cents per bushel

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nocar', 'W')hen I first heard about peak oil ten years ago I started to keep track of the oil price (Of course it dipped down to under 12 USdollars/barrel right after that, in 1998) They guy who talked about PO said that an oil crisis would start in 2003.

Then in 2002 I started to think that food prices would be the real important thing, so I started to note the wheat price. Wheat, as I understand it, is the most important crop for direct human consumption, worldwide.

In 2002-2005 wheat varied between 300 and 400 USdollars/bushel. From Nov 2006-May 2007 it has been around 500 USdollars/bushel. In the last few days, it has reached over 600 USdollars/bushel. It is a record, at least in a five year period. I have no idea what it was like earlier.

Anyone with more insight into wheat prices?

It is really surprising to me that such a large price increase in such an essential commodity is totally uncommented on in business news. (Not that I follow more than the national news on Swedish TV and the headlines on the Ekonomi-section of the major Swedish paper, Dagens Nyheter. Actually DN had a daily commodity price table including wheat for years, but just the last month, when it started getting interesting, has taken out all the food commodity items, as part of a new page design. I also read TIME and a Canadian weekly, Mcleans)

Do all economists think that food prices on the world market are not important? Why?

Please help me understand wheat prices and the lack of interest.

nocar