[Newsseeker]

It seems that everyone from Simmons to Boone is warning about the fourth quarter of this year. Question: what do people think the 1st and 2nd quarter (and on) will look like next year? Is 84 million bpd the cap or can it expand?

[linlithgowoil]

look at the megaprojects update. i think, according to this, it looks like we can very much get to beyond 84million. probably closer to 87-88million per day by 2008, but after that, the decline gets too big for the megaprojects to make up for.

any guesses on the peak value then? rather than the date?

i say 89 million barrels per day, possibly 90.

[RonMN]

If the do get to 89-90 MBPD then it just makes the decline steeper

The more we push for oil NOW...then the less we get in the long run and the harder the crash!

[sjn]

90mbpd? I don't think so. I think we're there now and Saudi production is going to start falling fast. The new projects coming on line may keep the production at current levels for a while, maybe, but they won't long be able to offset a rapid drop of output from Saudi Arabia.

[2007]

86 mb/d Q4 this year?

According to the latest BP report, or BP Amoco report, average global production didn't even nudge over 80 mb/d in 2003.

So, in 2 years, NET prod is supposed to have risen with more than 3 mb/d. That doesn't sound plausible to me.

[RdSnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'I')t seems that everyone from Simmons to Boone is warning about the fourth quarter of this year. Question: what do people think the 1st and 2nd quarter (and on) will look like next year? Is 84 million bpd the cap or can it expand?

[Revi]

So far Puplava's very close. He said that one US automaker would be at junk bond status in 2005. Who knew it would be two? I have a bad feeling about the end of this coming year and the winter of 2005-06. Maybe it's too early for much to happen, but it sure feels like financial problems are coming in the wake of Peak Oil.

[Grimnir]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'I')t seems that everyone from Simmons to Boone is warning about the fourth quarter of this year.

[clv101]

The SPR is what, around 700 million barrels? The US imports around 13 million barrels per day, so I guess the SPR is good for a little less than 2 months imports.

[bobeau]

I thought the max extraction rate from the reserve (currently about half full?) is like 2 MB/D? In that context the end of the year comment makes sense.

[RdSnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'S')o far Puplava's very close. He said that one US automaker would be at junk bond status in 2005. Who knew it would be two? I have a bad feeling about the end of this coming year and the winter of 2005-06. Maybe it's too early for much to happen, but it sure feels like financial problems are coming in the wake of Peak Oil.