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PO effect postponed?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 17:41:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leutnant', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')You didn't say any of that. You claimed it didn't work. Obviously it did. And EROEI didn't matter for the Nazi's or South Africa any more than it does for an oil company.

Well, maybe that's why both of those regimes didn't last all that long.


But John D Rockefeller's offspring continue in fine, profitable fashion?
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 17:58:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')Try this: My diesel powered pump is pumping oil from my backyard well. When do you think I will shut-off the pump?


A point in time between immediately, and some time in the future?

If you are really asking an honest question about a standard oilfield pumpjack, we need more information. What is the cost of diesel fuel? How often do you run the motor? How many oil changes do you normally do on the surface diesel engine? If this is a standard oilfield pumpjack, we need to know the cost of the lubricating oil in the gearbox and the frequency of maintenance? Grease for the stuffing box? How often does the downhole pump need replaced, and the costs? Do we wish to include the costs related to the MTBF of the rods themselves? What is the expected capital cost of replacement with an electric motor and attendant windmill? What is the oil worth? What are the severance and ad valorum taxes in your state? How do you value your time? Have you fully depreciated the equipment yet? Do you wish to factor in the salvage costs, and revenue, in this calculation? In which case, could we have information on the size and configuration of the casing string? How many strings? Tagged in, or cemented to surface? On which strings? What is the size and overall shape of the tubing and rods? Which cementing company do you prefer, and how do you wish to free the casing, ripping it or shooting it?

If we knew all of this operating level information, we still wouldn't know for sure exactly when, or why, you might wish to stop pumping this oil. And therefore, the original answer is still valid.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 18:05:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '
')Even the Cornucopians must admit that (1) most of the easy-to-extract and easy-to-refine light sweet crude has already been extracted; (2) the majority of what remains is expensive-to-produce heavy sour oil; and (3) over time, this trend will only exacerbate the economic viability of producing oil.

Once we head down the steep post-peak "Net Hubbert" curve, it's GAME OVER.


Net hubbert curve? So now..we take one idea which doesn't work...and build another on top of it? Well....if you want to I guess, but my momma didn't raise no fool.

Point 1. Happened in 1901, what makes you think that restating the obvious 110 years later matters?

Point 2. The majority of what remains is the same as the majority already produced. The API gravity of an oil does not go from 42 degrees api to 10 degrees api in a given reservoir just because 25% has been produced.

Point 3. Economic viability has more to do with why previous hysterical arm waving over lack of supply never worked out either than anything else.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 18:14:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
')Strawman. I never said anything about everyone having to become Amish or any such thing.


And I said it was implicit in the conversation. "Becoming Amish" is a euphemism for the large minority in the peak oil movement who wish to equate less oil with some hidden desire on humanities part to run back to the farm.

I was pointing out that considering the amount of effort going into running AWAY from the farm, and the concentration on allowing people to STAY off the farm, this implicit assumption does not appear to be valid.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
')Why not talk about what YOU are doing in response to the changes on the horizon. And if you don't think peak oil is a problem, GO AWAY, troll some other site.


What am I doing in response to changes on the horizon? I'm making sure my kids learn as much math and science as Chinese students do. I'm using far less crude based fuels to transport myself around. My house is very well insulated. If the price of oil doubles, so will my salary. Plus, the more fuel prices increase, the MORE traveling I get to do, on someone else's dime. Thats more like a fringe benefit though, rather than a need.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 18:22:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')But you do realize that California is the number three oil producer in the US? We support your illegal prius plug-in conversion :twisted:


California produces the heavy oil you seem to think is an impossible future. I am simply noting that I doubt you even realized you have consumed it in your gas tank while proclaiming that it can't ever happen. It's called a fact. Learn a few, it'll help build your credibility from where it is now.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Postby dsula » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 19:17:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')Try this: My diesel powered pump is pumping oil from my backyard well. When do you think I will shut-off the pump?


...........
What is the expected capital cost of replacement with an electric motor and attendant windmill?
...........

Now you're making a mistake. Installing a windmill is NOT what we're talking about. What you're doing now is going into CONVERSION !!. Converting WIND into oil. As mentioned before EROEI does not apply to conversion.
Can we always use conversion to the rescue? Alberta sands convert gas into oil. Some people do coal into oil. What you want to achieve is SUN into oil. A lot of people try it, but so far with limited success, even though SUN light is FREEEEEEEE. Thinking of this why would ANYBODY buy oil, because sunlight is free. Could it be because oil has properties no other form of energy has?
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Postby sparky » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 19:43:35

.
The depletion in the Non Opec countries has been foreseen ,
the future of oil consumption will depend of
the demand ....size unknown
the supply.......basically Saudi marginal production and Iraq getting back to normal business

We are at or close to a tight balance between production and demand
there is still a lot of financial weakness in the OCDE countries
China probably has a few disasters tucked in corners ,
the government has stated to really put the leash on banks

doom as a matter of a few weeks is an overblown rhetoric , true disasters take their sweet time
the bigger they are , the slower the precursors signs are .

like a landslide
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 21:12:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')standard oilfield pumpjack . . . cost of diesel fuel? . . . surface diesel engine? . . . lubricating oil in the gearbox . . . frequency of maintenance? . . . Grease for the stuffing box? . . . downhole pump need replaced blah blah blah
I love it when you talk techie. Good ole' cut and past. It is so so so not impressive! :twisted:


I dare you to find what I wrote, written down by anyone else. Anywhere. Written at any point in time before. By anyone. I dare you. Double dare you.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
') We call this "net-energy analysis" and the measure is EROEI. Google Tainter, Cutler, Hall, Cleveland, Malthus, Darwin et. al. for information.


And reality has already discredited all of it. Anything else you'd like to point out that you don't know anything about?
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 21:17:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', ' ')As mentioned before EROEI does not apply to conversion.


And as I mentioned before, that depends on who is cherry picking what information to "analyze" EROEI.

So we'll skip the conversion....any answers to the other information necessary to take a stab at answering the question?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')Could it be because oil has properties no other form of energy has?


Oil isn't an energy form. It's just a waste by product of shifting continents which mankind's ingenuity happens to make use of.

Less doomer dogma, more critical thinking.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Postby dsula » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 21:49:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')Could it be because oil has properties no other form of energy has?


Oil isn't an energy form. It's just a waste by product of shifting continents which mankind's ingenuity happens to make use of.

Less doomer dogma, more critical thinking.

Yeah, right back at you. A little less semantic crap, a little more common sense, please.
You know exacty what I mean. Why don't you power your car with dog poop, it's also a waste product.

Mankind ingenuity...... you're right of course. The problem is some form of energy (sorry some waste product) is easier to harness and more abundant than other.

Your lack of intelligent response tells me you actually agree with me. Thank you.

Xeno/Short you're in fact a doomer, or otherwise you wouldn't hang around here. However you take pleasure in argueing against anything and anybody. I enjoy your presence. I bet you're also present on some BAU-exponential-growth-cornucopia forum and you preach doom there just to piss off everybody. :-D.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 22:29:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', ' ')A little less semantic crap, a little more common sense, please.
You know exacty what I mean. Why don't you power your car with dog poop, it's also a waste product.


We could power a car with waste product from....say...cows? I don't know if dog poop has the same type of methane content, but its possible I suppose. The reason why it's possible? The same reason why getting work from crude is possible. Crude is semi worthless without corresponding ingenuity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')Mankind ingenuity...... you're right of course. The problem is some form of energy (sorry some waste product) is easier to harness and more abundant than other.


And what is in common between the waste products? Mankind's ingenuity. Like you said, doesn't matter what the waste product is.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')I bet you're also present on some BAU-exponential-growth-cornucopia forum and you preach doom there just to piss off everybody. :-D.


Nope. I hang out on hybrid forums, and we all discuss how we're saving the world from peak oil, one gallon at a time.
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