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PO effect postponed?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby Xenophobe » Fri 28 Jan 2011, 23:22:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')The examples I offered show that the process is possible, yet was a solution in isolation and failed. The process is too expensive, time-consuming, energy intensive, and yes . . . has lousy EROEI.


You didn't say any of that. You claimed it didn't work. Obviously it did. And EROEI didn't matter for the Nazi's or South Africa any more than it does for an oil company.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 10:32:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'A')nd EROEI didn't matter for the Nazi's or South Africa any more than it does for an oil company.
I don't know what is more pathetic, your ignorance of history and thermodynamics, or your unfair portrayal of oil companies. :shock:


I listed some of the volumes the Nazi's and South African's made from coal.

You said:

"All energy types (carriers) are not fungible, otherwise then Nazi Germany and apartheid South Africa would have succeeded converting coal to oil using Fischer–Tropsch CTL technology."

They did succeed. Millions of barrels worth..and Sasol is still doing it. I'm not the one with a history problem, and certainly discussing therm with you is like discussing Mozart with a deaf person, so I'll leave that comment alone.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 11:35:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'A')nd EROEI didn't matter for the Nazi's or South Africa any more than it does for an oil company.
I don't know what is more pathetic, your ignorance of history and thermodynamics, or your unfair portrayal of oil companies. :shock:


I listed some of the volumes the Nazi's and South African's made from coal.

You said:

"All energy types (carriers) are not fungible, otherwise then Nazi Germany and apartheid South Africa would have succeeded converting coal to oil using Fischer–Tropsch CTL technology."

They did succeed. Millions of barrels worth..and Sasol is still doing it. I'm not the one with a history problem, and certainly discussing therm with you is like discussing Mozart with a deaf person, so I'll leave that comment alone.

The only reason Nazi Germany and embargoed South Africa used CTL was because they needed oil and didn't have access to the stuff and were forced to use a (poor) substitute!
Yes, it worked! but they'd haven given their right hand to get real oil, that's why Germany invaded the USSR.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 11:39:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '
')The only reason Nazi Germany and embargoed South Africa used CTL was because they needed oil and didn't have access to the stuff and were forced to use a (poor) substitute!


Exactly correct. And when 42 degree API oil naturally flowing out of sandstone reservoirs is not available, humans will produce icky, stinky, thick and nasty unconventional oil from Venezuela, steam it off of sand grains in Canada, and convert the massive amounts of natural gas available on this planet into liquid fuels, as needed.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby vision-master » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 12:07:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')The examples I offered show that the process is possible, yet was a solution in isolation and failed. The process is too expensive, time-consuming, energy intensive, and yes . . . has lousy EROEI.


You didn't say any of that. You claimed it didn't work. Obviously it did. And EROEI didn't matter for the Nazi's or South Africa any more than it does for an oil company.


X, why do you think Nazi Germany failed - OIL!
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby Leutnant » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 13:35:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')You didn't say any of that. You claimed it didn't work. Obviously it did. And EROEI didn't matter for the Nazi's or South Africa any more than it does for an oil company.

Well, maybe that's why both of those regimes didn't last all that long.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby Carlhole » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 14:51:39

Peak Oil Keeps Slipping, Slipping.....Into the Future...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Al Fin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Exxon-Mobile]', '')The estimates for how much oil there is in the world continue to increase,” according to William M Colton, Exxon Mobil’s vice president for corporate strategic planning. “There’s enough oil to supply the world’s needs as far as anyone can see.” Just as prices rose sharply and peak oil concerns re-emerged, huge deep water oil fields were found off the coasts of Brazil and Africa. Higher prices also stimulated “unconventional” oil production from massive Canadian oil sands projects, which now provide North America with more oil than Saudi Arabia. In 2009, the United States increased domestic oil production for the first time in decades.


Image

Much of the fashionable panic surrounding "peak oil DOOM!" is reminiscent of the catastrophic circus that surrounded Y2K. While it is true that the Y2K problem required the attention and effort of thousands of professionals to solve, the same thing is obviously true for the problem of providing ongoing energy supplies in the face of rising global populations and expectations. Maintaining reliable energy supplies is an ongoing problem which is solvable as appropriate effort is applied.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he concept of "peak oil" is heavily dependent upon unknown factors which could change at any time. Only a fool would maintain a posture of predictive certainty in that atmosphere of uncertainy and rapid change".

Boy, you can say that again.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby thuja » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 14:55:24

Peak oil effect postponed? Folks we're talking about Coal to Liquid...Peak oil effect is happening in this thread...
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby dsula » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 16:20:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'Y')ou didn't say any of that. You claimed it didn't work. Obviously it did. And EROEI didn't matter for the Nazi's or South Africa any more than it does for an oil company.

That's a conversion. COAL --> OIL. EROEI doesn't matter as other properties are more important (and one of them is that the source is way way way cheaper than the target).

Try this: My diesel powered pump is pumping oil from my backyard well. When do you think I will shut-off the pump?
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 16:40:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'P')eak oil effect postponed? Folks we're talking about Coal to Liquid...Peak oil effect is happening in this thread...


Indeed, whether we've actually reached geological peak oil, we've certainly reached, or will soon reach, "effective peak oil." "Effective peak oil" focuses on EROEI and the marginal cost of producing a barrel of oil. Once the marginal cost of producing a barrel of oil equals the marginal return, it no longer makes economic sense to extract and produce oil.

While the Cornucopians would have you believe that geologically there is a great abundance of oil remaining, the reality is that all of the low-hanging fruit has already been scavenged, such that the bulk (70%) of remaining oil is heavy sour -- which is far more costly to refine.

Image

From an economic / EROEI perspective, this results in a catastrophic nosedive once peak has been reached:

Image

(notice how much steeper the decline is once "net" energy is factored in).

Even the Cornucopians must admit that (1) most of the easy-to-extract and easy-to-refine light sweet crude has already been extracted; (2) the majority of what remains is expensive-to-produce heavy sour oil; and (3) over time, this trend will only exacerbate the economic viability of producing oil.

Once we head down the steep post-peak "Net Hubbert" curve, it's GAME OVER.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 16:57:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '
')Even the Cornucopians must admit that (1) most of the easy-to-extract and easy-to-refine light sweet crude has already been extracted; (2) the majority of what remains is expensive-to-produce heavy sour oil; and (3) over time, this trend will only exacerbate the economic viability of producing oil.

Once we head down the steep post-peak "Net Hubbert" curve, it's GAME OVER.

No, it's not "game over" if that means "DOOM" or even "doom", as you seem to be implying. (I'm a moderate, NOT a cornie).

It means oil will continue to get more expensive, and at least for a while, the price gains will accelerate. It means people will have to adapt. It means inconvenience, and LOTS of whining, I am certain. It means people will have less to spend on trinkets and having a weekly commute in an SUV of 500 or more miles.

Acting like one day there will suddenly be NO alternatives and everyone will simultaneously lay down and die, or suddenly decide to kill each other for the gas in their neighbors tanks is just silly. It's an economic problem.

Once the (painful) transition is made, this will be a GOOD thing. For one thing, if the const of living increases a lot, people will have a lot less kids and quit consuming so much stupid crap that hurts the planet.

Now, do I wish our society were smart enough to see the obvious problem coming, come up with intelligent sustainable energy policies, and DEAL with this well up front? Absolutely.

Our stupid society kicks the can down the road and struggles with MANY major problems at the last minute as a result. The decline of cheap oil is just one more example of our societal stupidity - NOT doom.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby Loki » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 17:01:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')An implicit assumption in this exchange appears to be that everyone should enjoy the coming Amish-lifestyle caused by peak oil, or a hint that human communities (called cities) are somehow not what we should aspire to.

Some people don't want to plant strawberries, and as long as they have experience in a field where someone will pay them, such pay which can be exchanged for someone else's strawberries labor, they certainly don't have to become a farmer. It has already been demonstrated that not only won't peak oil stop cities from continuing to do what they have been doing for millenia now, but it won't even stop large scale agriculture, random commuting, transoceanic shipping or even the 1500 mile salad. Fortunately, this means that a majority of people can do something other than being farmers.

People left the farms of America for valid reasons over the past century, and peak oil hasn't caused them to suddenly go back.

Has anyone seen a large scale "return to farming" movement anywhere in this country, in response to peak oil? Or have we instead seen the design, testing, mass manufacture and widescale distribution of random transport using something other than crude to power them? Seems like people are voting for continued traffic in the cities with non crude powered machines rather than flocking to the closest Amish community.

Strawman. I never said anything about everyone having to become Amish or any such thing. I'm just talking about my personal choices in how I live my life. I've been wanting to get into organic farming before I even heard of peak oil, just took me a good ten years to finally do it. I also can't stand cities, too many damn people. If you want to live on top of millions of other people, shuffling papers for your 9 to 5, feel free. And like I said in my original post, which you clearly didn't read, peak oil is not some instant change, it'll be a long-term process, so of course it hasn't resulted in a mass back-to-the-land movement. Yet.

But looks like this thread has devolved into yet another useless corny vs. doomer circle jerk. Wish I hadn't wasted my time reading it and posting in it. This whole site is turning into the same damn thread over and over again. EROEI, CTL, blah blah blah, this shit has been beat to death for years on this site. Why not talk about what YOU are doing in response to the changes on the horizon. And if you don't think peak oil is a problem, GO AWAY, troll some other site.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 17:17:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '
')Even the Cornucopians must admit that (1) most of the easy-to-extract and easy-to-refine light sweet crude has already been extracted; (2) the majority of what remains is expensive-to-produce heavy sour oil; and (3) over time, this trend will only exacerbate the economic viability of producing oil.

Once we head down the steep post-peak "Net Hubbert" curve, it's GAME OVER.

No, it's not "game over" if that means "DOOM" or even "doom", as you seem to be implying. (I'm a moderate, NOT a cornie).

It means oil will continue to get more expensive, and at least for a while, the price gains will accelerate. It means people will have to adapt. It means inconvenience, and LOTS of whining, I am certain. It means people will have less to spend on trinkets and having a weekly commute in an SUV of 500 or more miles.

Acting like one day there will suddenly be NO alternatives and everyone will simultaneously lay down and die, or suddenly decide to kill each other for the gas in their neighbors tanks is just silly. It's an economic problem.

Once the (painful) transition is made, this will be a GOOD thing. For one thing, if the const of living increases a lot, people will have a lot less kids and quit consuming so much stupid crap that hurts the planet.

Now, do I wish our society were smart enough to see the obvious problem coming, come up with intelligent sustainable energy policies, and DEAL with this well up front? Absolutely.

Our stupid society kicks the can down the road and struggles with MANY major problems at the last minute as a result. The decline of cheap oil is just one more example of our societal stupidity - NOT doom.


While I agree with much of your position, I merely want to stress that current Western civilization is founded upon the concept of "cheap oil" (think EROEI). IOW, the concept of "cheap oil" strikes to the very core of modern functioning civilization. "Cheap oil" is what has allowed suburbs, skyscrapers, SUVs, the Internet, fast-food & soccer moms to flourish and permeate the very fabric of society.

When "cheap oil" becomes "expensive oil," what do you think will happen to the suburbs and the inefficient buildings / skyscrapers / McMansions that have become the fabric of modern Western capitalism? These edifices of capitalism will be crushed ... which will cause real estate prices to collapse ... which will cause banks to fail ... which will cause sovereigns to fail ... which will cause fiat currencies to fail. This, in turn, will make it far more difficult for oil companies to raise the funds for exploration, extraction, refining, and distribution.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby lper100km » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 17:35:18

I suppose it depends on what effect you (in the generic sense) are anticipating. It’s a certainty that whatever it is, it will not be so. Curves published to date suggest that the geological and productivity peak has already occurred in 2006/7 and is therefore not subject to postponement. Right now, we are experiencing the physical effects of Peak Oil. The economic and political effects are more problematic and overlay the physical effects strongly. Your view of the future of the economy and global politics will shade your future view of the results of the interaction between the three. Good luck predicting anything specific based on the present situation, though in general, a rosy future seems a long shot.
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 17:37:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')Humans will produce icky, stinky, thick and nasty unconventional oil from Venezuela, steam it off of sand grains in Canada, and convert the massive amounts of natural gas available on this planet into liquid fuels, as needed.
And they will be unusually poor in doing so. It is not called "scraping the bottom of the (oil) barrel" for nothing.


For nothing? You live in the Peoples Republik of Kalifornia? Has it bothered you much that the same heavy oil, icky, sticky and nasty was being produced before you were born, and has undoubtedly gone through your gas tank many times since you moved there?

Did you notice? Did you feel impoverished because you've used exactly this type of oil? Are you surprised that the people doing this activity haven't learned enough to STOP in the century they've been doing it?

You call it "scraping the bottom of the barrel for nothing". Kalifornia calls it profitable economic activity, jobs and tax dollars, road building materials, the basis for building out suburbia, and it has been supported by YOU in your purchase of gasoline. Certainly not "nothing".
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Re: PO effect postponed?

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 17:39:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '
')X, why do you think Nazi Germany failed - OIL!


I would venture that attacking Russia was a REALLY bad idea.
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