$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', 'S')o it looks like we got the serious effects of PO postponed, no collapse, die-off, zombies for long time to come as it seems (I remember it was scheduled for Christmas 2008)
1. more oil found than used in 2010
2. tons of NG available
3. high oil prices spur research in all kind of alternatives
4. high oil price spur research and investemnt in oil recovery
What dou you say, we postpone for another 20 or 30 years, and then meet again?
PeakOil is You
PO effect postponed?
Re: PO effect postponed?
by DoomersUnite » Sun 23 Jan 2011, 20:12:09
I was just noting the same thing myself. For me the big flag just happened in the last couple months, I log in after another couple months of BAU and found just some of the things you mentioned. Oil being found all over the place, recovery in the US going on for awhile now, solutions popping up all over the place, and the whole peak oil = bad stuff happening just ain't working.
These things happen generation to generation, so yeah, another 20-30 and all our kids can google up this place in the archives, see everything talked about, and see if any of it had any value. Certainly in the time frame its been a bust.
-
DoomersUnite - Peat
- Posts: 122
- Joined: Sun 18 Jun 2006, 03:00:00
Re: PO effect postponed?
by Sixstrings » Sun 23 Jan 2011, 20:28:55
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', 'S')o it looks like we got the serious effects of PO postponed, no collapse, die-off, zombies for long time to come as it seems (I remember it was scheduled for Christmas 2008)
(snip)
What dou you say, we postpone for another 20 or 30 years, and then meet again?
(snip)
What dou you say, we postpone for another 20 or 30 years, and then meet again?
One thing about it, the time is approaching when we're going to have to start re-evaluating the more sexy Zombie doomstead aspects of peaker doom. At some point it begins to hurt credibility, like Rupert predicting collapse every year and what if civilization lasts long enough for Kunstler to start a "World Made by Hand: The Next Generation" series of novels.
Not that I've gone cornie, but I have to admit I'm going to start having some doubts in a year or two. I can't be a doomer for five, ten, twenty years it's jut not in me. THEN AGAIN.. there are others out there who have a lot to say about fast crash who aren't even peakers. I've seen some FORA tallks from a Harvard professor, can't recall his name. He makes a compelling case that collapse can happen surprisingly fast. Of course he's thinking USSR type collapse, not exactly "zombie doom." But going with that example, the USSR was really a slow collapse for its whole history -- and then boom, it fell apart surprisingly fast.
So that's where I'm at. If it becomes obvious that it's either Slow Collapse / cornies are right, then I'll have to move on and stop thinking about this stuff so much. And of course there are shades of collapse, the US could wind up like Mexico and while Mexico sort of sucks it's not the end of the world.
Ultimately, I think the important thing is that people not make major life changes based on the timetable for collapse. It's just my opinion, but whatever you do make sure it fits in with either scenario -- fast crash or thirty years from now. There's a lot to like about a powered-down, rural lifestyle so hopefully those that choose that now also happen to enjoy it anyway regardless of peak oil.
Last edited by Sixstrings on Sun 23 Jan 2011, 21:46:23, edited 1 time in total.
-
Sixstrings - Fusion
- Posts: 15160
- Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Re: PO effect postponed?
by Sixstrings » Sun 23 Jan 2011, 20:36:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomersUnite', ' ')Oil being found all over the place, recovery in the US going on for awhile now, solutions popping up all over the place, and the whole peak oil = bad stuff happening just ain't working.
Well.. economic collapse is still an open question. And I think it's connected to peak oil, but we'll see. Anyhow there are some things that have to play out economically.. all you have to do is read the news, Zerohedge, guys like Max Keiser, Tickerforum, automaticearth, even mainstream. It's all coming to a head, capitalism *appears* to be headed for end stage. It's getting to the point where new debt isn't creating new money, and that situation demands some kind of collapse, we cannot operate without creating new money.
-
Sixstrings - Fusion
- Posts: 15160
- Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Re: PO effect postponed?
by DoomersUnite » Sun 23 Jan 2011, 20:41:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')What dou you say, we postpone for another 20 or 30 years, and then meet again?
')What dou you say, we postpone for another 20 or 30 years, and then meet again?
Funny, you should mention that timeframe. With about 1.3 trillion barrels of estimated crude and a consumption rate of about 30 billion barrels a year, 30 some odd years would be about right before all the conventional stuff is gone.
Not quite. Reserves are just current inventory, 30 odd years assumes no more is added to inventory, and as has been previously mentioned, we are adding more than we consume nowadays. For every year that happens, we can add 1+ years to inventory, so we get MORE.
And while some don't like talking about the red headed stepchild in the room, when that stepchild grows by 25% the size of all conventional oil in inventory, it suddenly doesn't matter anymore WHO the daddy is, you can't ignore the kid.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', '
')Natural decline starts getting noticeable in 2015-2020 timeframe. Artificial shortages due to terrorism, resource nationalism or international conflict may shorten that, or accelerate the decay already in progress. I'd bet on that.
Natural decline has been happening since 1859. August. Wouldn't put too much faith in it as an indicator of much.
Ayup, everything is just hunky dory. Gas at the local station is up to 3.15 a gallon and going up just .02 per week in the off season. This summer it probably won't go over 4.50 or 4.75. And just 24 percent of mortgages are underwater nationwide, nothing to worry about. Unless your one of the 19 percent actual unemployed that can't pay the mortgage or refinance it, or find a buyer. You can rely on the state except 46 out of 50 are in deep deficit trouble with three of the biggest in real danger of Bankruptcy except there is no legal way for them to do that so they will have to come up with something worse. Maybe the feds will bail them out but wait the feds are spending a trillion more then they are taking in every year and borrowing it from the Chinese. This may not be a fast crash but it's walking along at a pretty good clip. Oh and the ice is melting and methane is bubbling out of the ESCS and we will soon all drown or starve from climate change. And food is getting cheaper by the day. Not!! 
