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So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 15 Jan 2011, 04:06:14

The really ugly part of all of this is the historic precedent of folks rolling off of the 99 week UE claims. That particular statistic has NO PRECEDENT despite what Mr finder may have to say about it. ITS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE.

But hey, everything is just fine, they are all going to find burger flipping jobs tomorrow!!
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 20 Jan 2011, 09:43:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'D')aniel is making the exact same mistake Sixstrings made when he started this thread.

As I said:

>>> Initial claims fall to 404,000 <<<

Which is a little less than where they were 2 weeks ago (410K).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')t [NSA initial claims] will probably fall by at least 100K next week.

As I also said:

Jan. 15: 550,594
Jan. 8: 763,098
Change: -212,504
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 20 Jan 2011, 16:50:05

So what do these new jobs pay compaired to the olds ones? Half the pay?

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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 20 Jan 2011, 16:58:49

^
This isn't about new jobs, it's about initial unemployment claims.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 27 Jan 2011, 10:07:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')t will probably fall by at least 100K next week. Of course the doomer types won't mention that when it occurs.


Aw Crap -- Jobless Claims Skyrocket by 51K as Phony Recovery Loses Steam

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')NEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 454,000, an increase of 51,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 403,000. The 4-week moving average was 428,750, an increase of 15,750 from the previous week's revised average of 413,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.2 percent for the week ending Jan. 15, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 15 was 3,991,000, an increase of 94,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,897,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,975,500, a decrease of 39,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,015,250.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 482,399 in the week ending Jan. 22, a decrease of 67,491 from the previous week. There were 502,710 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.7 percent during the week ending Jan. 15, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,593,535, a decrease of 58,900 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.3 percent and the volume was 5,602,357.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Jan. 8 was 9,410,977.


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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Timo » Thu 27 Jan 2011, 12:00:40

The Wall Street Execs deserve a bailout bonus check for this one!

On second thought, better make that straight gold. Government checks aren't worth anything anymore.
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 27 Jan 2011, 12:40:16

I detect more than a bit of dishonesty in someone here. Posted Thu Jan 13. "Next week" was Jan 20 - and indeed it [NSA claims} fell by more than 100K that week. Today is Jan 28.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'D')aniel is making the exact same mistake Sixstrings made when he started this thread.

It will probably fall by at least 100K next week. Of course the doomer types won't mention that when it occurs.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 27 Jan 2011, 13:32:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I') detect more than a bit of dishonesty in someone here.


Did I grab the wrong quote? In any case, without admitting any wrongdoing, I'll repost with another amusing quote ... :lol: :lol:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')'m close to rescinding my "sideways" prediction for initial jobless claims and making a new prediction that we'll start to see a downward trend.


Aw Crap -- Jobless Claims Skyrocket by 51K as Phony Recovery Loses Steam

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')NEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 454,000, an increase of 51,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 403,000. The 4-week moving average was 428,750, an increase of 15,750 from the previous week's revised average of 413,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.2 percent for the week ending Jan. 15, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 15 was 3,991,000, an increase of 94,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,897,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,975,500, a decrease of 39,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,015,250.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 482,399 in the week ending Jan. 22, a decrease of 67,491 from the previous week. There were 502,710 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.7 percent during the week ending Jan. 15, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,593,535, a decrease of 58,900 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.3 percent and the volume was 5,602,357.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Jan. 8 was 9,410,977.


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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 27 Jan 2011, 17:15:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '[')b]Aw Crap -- Jobless Claims Skyrocket by 51K as Phony Recovery Loses Steam[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')NEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA


Surely you're wrong, Daniel.. Obama didn't even mention the 99ers the other night. Sounded to me like the recession's over.. the President said the stock market is roaring and corporate profits are doing great.
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby VZR1800 » Sat 29 Jan 2011, 11:13:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'S')urely you're wrong, Daniel.. Obama didn't even mention the 99ers the other night. Sounded to me like the recession's over.. the President said the stock market is roaring and corporate profits are doing great.


All thanks to Uncle Fed, who through QE 2, and soon 3, is keeping the ship afloat. :roll:
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 10:24:06

Aw Crap, No Double-Dip in Sight -- Jobless Claims Tumble by 42K

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')NEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 415,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 457,000.The 4-week moving average was 430,500, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average of 429,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent for the week ending Jan. 22, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.2 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 22 was 3,925,000, a decrease of 84,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,009,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,929,500, a decrease of 50,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,980,000.

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One would think that DP, having made the same mistake as Sixstrings at the opening of this thread a few weeks ago, would have learned to recognize an outlyer when he saw one. But no, he decided to make the same mistake again last week. Maybe a few more times and he'll finally learn to spot one when it occurs.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby MichaelWallace » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 14:15:29

I'm not doom and gloom, but we still need to get that number down to the low 300s or we won't see any significant change to unemployment. For now, employment remains mediocre, at best.
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby peripato » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 20:59:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VZR1800', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'S')urely you're wrong, Daniel.. Obama didn't even mention the 99ers the other night. Sounded to me like the recession's over.. the President said the stock market is roaring and corporate profits are doing great.


All thanks to Uncle Fed, who through QE 2, and soon 3, is keeping the ship afloat. :roll:

I think perhaps that should read, *shit* afloat.
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 10 Feb 2011, 10:23:45

Gosh darnit, where's that double dip? Jobless Claims Tumble by 36K, falling well below 400K

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')NEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Feb. 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 383,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 419,000.The 4-week moving average was 415,500, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised average of 431,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent for the week ending Jan. 29, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 29 was 3,888,000, a decrease of 47,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,935,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,932,250, an increase of 250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,932,000.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 10 Feb 2011, 10:25:32

Just for emphasis.

REAL RECOVERY PLOUGHING AHEAD!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')size=150]Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest Level Since July 2008[/size]
Published: Thursday, 10 Feb 2011

New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits dropped more than expected last week to touch their lowest point in 2-1/2 years, a government report showed on Thursday, offering assurance that the labor market was strengthening despite Januarys poor jobs numbers.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 383,000, the lowest since early July 2008, the Labor Department said.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby steam_cannon » Thu 10 Feb 2011, 11:39:53

So the 99ers aren't being counted anymore because they lost their benefits and that's supposed to be positive news? Sick.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'J')ust for emphasis[...]
Just for emphasis, I don't think you read to the end of the article you posted.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')obless Claims Drop to Lowest Level Since July 2008
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41508404

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid declined 47,000 to 3.89 million

The number of people on emergency unemployment benefits increased 100,366 to 3.76 million in the week ended Jan. 22, the latest week for which data is available.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Jobless claims drop; ranks of 99ers seeking tier 5 unemployment extension grow
http://www.examiner.com/unemployment-in ... nsion-grow

The seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims last week was 388,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 422,000, the U.S. Department of Labor reported yesterday.

However, the unemployment rate has continued to rise and is not expected to decline significantly in 2011. In November, 42% of unemployed Americans had been looking for work for six months or more, according to the latest available figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of 99ers -- those who have exhausted all available benefits -- will continue to rise throughout 2011.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ast month employers only added 39,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent.

Those collecting that extended unemployment aid can get it for up to 99 weeks. Unfortunately, we are not seeing any more aid after that. (or being counted)

http://www.rantrave.com/Rant/Jobless-Cl ... 99ers.aspx


FYI OilFinder spamming with huge print is stupid. Would you like it if everyone posted that way? I think you're putting undo emphasis where it doesn't belong and you're not researching or even fully reading the articles that you're posting.
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Thu 10 Feb 2011, 11:47:17

^steam cannon, you need to read this whole thread, the crazy huge letters were started by Daniel Plainview.
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 10 Feb 2011, 12:16:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', '^')steam cannon, you need to read this whole thread, the crazy huge letters were started by Daniel Plainview.

Bingo. I'm just mocking DP's rather obnoxious posting style.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', 'S')o the 99ers aren't being counted anymore because they lost their benefits and that's supposed to be positive news? Sick.

For about the bazillionth time, these are initial claims and have nothing to do with the 99ers. One only files an initial claim after one gets laid off. It has nothing to do with continuing claims.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 10 Feb 2011, 12:33:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '[')b]Just for emphasis, I don't think you read to the end of the article you posted.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')obless Claims Drop to Lowest Level Since July 2008
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41508404

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid declined 47,000 to 3.89 million

The number of people on emergency unemployment benefits increased 100,366 to 3.76 million in the week ended Jan. 22, the latest week for which data is available.

Incidentally, to extrapolate on that, from the Labor Department release:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]PERSONS CLAIMING UI BENEFITS IN ALL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)

TOTAL
Jan. 22: 9,405,527
Jan. 15: 9,299,272
Change: +106,255
Prior Year: 11,544,866

So, total continuing claims from all programs are down more than 2 million from the same time last year. I await the doomer spin on that. :roll: Yeah, it's all because of the 99ers. Sure. :roll:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 10 Feb 2011, 12:54:43

The data is for the week of February 5, when all of America was covered in a blizzard. Odd how that is not mentioned.
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