[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IsThisRealLife', 'H')aven't we seen this thread before?

deleted

Social unrest because of food prices? Go fishing.

[eXpat]

Global food chain stretched to the limit
Soaring prices spark fears of social unrest in developing world
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Strained by rising demand and battered by bad weather, the global food supply chain is stretched to the limit, sending prices soaring and sparking concerns about a repeat of food riots last seen three years ago.

Signs of the strain can be found from Australia to Argentina, Canada to Russia.

On Thursday, Tunisia's president ordered prices on food staples slashed and indicated he won't run for re-election after deadly riots hit the North African country.

"We are entering a danger territory," Abdolreza Abbassian, chief economist at the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said last week.

The U.N.'s fear is that the latest run-up in food prices could spark a repeat of the deadly food riots that broke out in 2008 in Haiti, Kenya and Somalia. That price spike was relatively short-lived. But Abbassian said the latest surge in food stuffs may be more sustained.

"Situations have changed. The supply/demand structures have changed,” Abbassian told the Australian Broadcasting Corp. last week. "Certainly the kind of weather developments we have seen makes us worry a little bit more that it may last much, much longer. Are we prepared for it? Really this is the question."

Price for grains and other farm products began rising last fall after poor harvests in Canada, Russia and Ukraine tightened global supplies. More recently, hot, dry weather in South America has cut production in Argentina, a major soybean exporter. This month's flooding in Australia wiped out much of that countries wheat crop.

As supplies tighten, prices surge. Earlier this month, the FAO said its food price index jumped 32 percent in the second half of 2010, soaring past the previous record set in 2008.

Prices rose again this week after the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut back its already-tight estimate of grain inventories. Estimated reserves of corn were cut to about half the level in storage at the start of the 2010 harvest; soybean reserves are at the lowest levels in three decades, the USDA estimates, in part because of heavy buying by China. The ratio of stocks to demand is expected to fall later this year to "levels unseen since the mid-1970s," the agency said.
Story: Wholesale prices post biggest gain in a year

"I haven't seen numbers this low that I can remember in the last 20 or 30 years," said Dennis Conley, an agricultural economist at the University of Nebraska. "We are at record low stocks. So if there any kind of glitch at all in the U.S. weather, supplies are going to remain tighter and we might see even higher prices."

Higher oil prices are also pushing up the cost of food — in two ways. First, the added shipping cost raises the delivered price of agricultural products. Higher oil prices also divert more crops like corn and soybeans to biofuel production, further tightening supplies for livestock feed and human consumption. Conley estimates that more than a third of the corn produced in the U.S is now used to make ethanol.

[davep]

I've heard unconfirmed reports that Ben Ali has left Tunisia.

[Pretorian]

He is somewhere with a view of Persian Gulf as of now. Who would have thought... after getting 90% vote for his 4th/5th presidential term...

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.salon.com/food/feature/2011/01/06/hmong_urban_farmers_ext2011/index.html]I remember loving our imperfectly shaped cucumbers ...[/url]

[Cloud9]

Positioning for a Food Riots Economy

I said, “I think we can expect the words “food riot” to enter the American lexicon sometime in the next 18 months, and I don’t say that flippantly.”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/246787- ... ts-economy

[Pretorian]

Entire world populace, and Americans especially, feel entitled to have good food for dirt-cheap or even for free. So when Negroes will start burning shops in their hoods it will not be a food riot, it will be entitlement riot. A major correction here.

[eXpat]

Sudan Next To Succumb To Bernanke's Inflationary Experiment, As Country Threatens Revolution Over Surging Food Prices
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')About a month ago, some took offense at our characterization of the Chair-hewlettpackard-man as a "bearded mutant-cum-supreme genocidal overlord" after we predicted to the dot that his monetary policy would eventually lead to a global, well, genocide, presumably first in the developing world. Following riots, self-immolations and outright revolutions in Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, Yemen and Egypt, in the span of a few shorts weeks, we believe we have been once again validated. Putting the period in any debate of what Bernanke's runaway money printing means to the life-expectancy of increasing number of people, is the latest news coming out of Sudan where "security forces on Tuesday arrested opposition leader Hassan al-Turabi and eight other party officials after they called for a "popular revolution" if Khartoum did not reverse price rises." And since economic slack in Sudan is roughly in line with that of the abovementioned other 5 countries, it is safe to say that the bulk of this move is speculation frenzy related, which in turn is purely a function of pervasive and free global liquidity. And this is still just the beginning. As Bernanke will not stop before the Dow hits roughly 36,000 expect these kinds of headlines to be an hourly occurrence.

More from Reuters:

Turabi's arrest comes at a politically sensitive time for the government of President Omar Hassan al Bashir, who stands to lose control over the oil-producing south which last week voted in an independence referendum.

It also comes as Tunisia grapples with fallout from the ouster of its long-time president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, who fled the country on Friday after three weeks of violent unrest sparked by social grievances.

Sudan's opposition threatened on Sunday to take to the streets if the government did not remove its finance minister and dismantle parliament over the decision to raise prices on a range of goods.

"This is criminal - how can they arrest a man who is 78 years old and put him in prison? We are scared for him," Turabi's tearful wife Wisal al-Mahdi told Reuters.

Ben Ali's overthrow in Tunisia has reverberated across the Arab world, raising concerns about stability in other countries in the region which share the same mix of social, economic and political problems.

And on the topic of price increases specifically:

Sudan's price increases have sparked student protests in the country's northern agricultural heartland and Khartoum.

The country is grappling with a current account deficit and a currency devaluation that is driving up inflation.

This month Khartoum cut subsidies on petroleum products and key commodity sugar, prompting protests over the past week, quelled only by baton-wielding police firing teargas.

[eXpat]

The Maghreb accelerate its purchases of grain to avoid a Tunisian scenario
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')aghreb countries, worried about a contagion of the Tunisian revolution, buy bulk grains to prevent possible riots, the risk of further increase of food prices worldwide.

* "There is a sharp acceleration in purchases of grain and oil in the Maghreb countries: Morocco, Libya, Algeria and also Sudan ", told AFP Michel Portier, director of specializing consulting firm Agritel.

* These purchases are mainly on food staples like wheat, maize, oilseeds and barley.

* Algeria, shaken by five days of riots against high prices in early January, bought about 1 million tons of wheat in a fortnight. Tuesday, Algiers in particular ordered 600,000 tons of wheat.

* Algiers has also decided to significantly increase the quota for wheat delivered to each mill "to contain speculation appeared on flour since January," according to the Algerian news agency APS.

* "Probably the country seeks to build up sufficient stocks to avoid the scenario of Tunisia, while tensions are already acute in the country," said analysts specialized from the site pleinchamp.com.

* Libya has bought 100,000 tons of wheat on the international market.
* Morocco launched 12 January a call for tenders for the purchase of approximately 255,000 tons of grain, including 154,500 tons of wheat and 100,000 tons of barley.

[Vogelzang]

After the Democrats redistributed a lot of my wealth to the poor, maybe I could harvest some of them as a food source in case things get too bad.

[Tyler_JC]

The impact of food subsidies should not be underestimated.

Lots of poor countries spend HUGE amounts of money holding down food prices for their populations.

What happens when food prices rise and the cost of these subsidies bankrupts countries like Egypt, Pakistan, etc?

Pakistan is already on the verge of bankruptcy, could more expensive food'n'fuel send them over the edge? I think we're about to find out.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')What happens when food prices rise and the cost of these subsidies bankrupts countries like Egypt, Pakistan, etc?

[Crazy_Dad]

This document is very interesting and applies to this topic.
http://www.csiro.au/files/files/plje.pdf

Download it and read it from the local drive - my browser didn't show the graphs.

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Vogelzang', 'A')fter the Democrats redistributed a lot of my wealth to the poor, maybe I could harvest some of them as a food source in case things get too bad.

[Revi]

The Magreb countries are buying wheat to keep their people from rioting. It's called bread and circus and it's been a way to keep countries running for thousands of years.

What's going to happen when countries can't buy wheat?

Russia cut off exports last year.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')What's going to happen when countries can't buy wheat?

[eXpat]

Good rule of thumb, something to remember.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')I5’s maxim is that society is “four meals away from anarchy”. In other words, the security agency believes that Britain could be quickly reduced to large-scale disorder, including looting and rioting in the event of a catastrophe that stops the supply of food.
...

MI5 — whose motto is “regnum defende”, defend the realm — uses the “four meals” rule to assess the threat levels from attacks on strategic installations, such as computer networks and power stations; natural disasters; or widespread strikes and civil disobedience.

There is evidence that the breakdown of order could be caused partly by the first pangs of hunger but more likely by panic.

This could occur if, for example, a bomb attack prevented food getting into an area or if computer systems were attacked by hackers, throwing the electricity, food and water networks into chaos. Alternatively, an attack by biological, nuclear or radiological weapons could result in an area being cordoned off.

It is likely that the people affected would immediately buy up all the food available. As supplies ran out, the public might try to break through cordons or start competing violently for available food.

It is estimated that after as little as four missed meals, a “law of the jungle” would take over, in which citizens resorted to looting or violence to find food.

The possible breakdown in order, MI5 believes, could occur in isolated pockets or, less probably, across the country.

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')What's going to happen when countries can't buy wheat?

[vision-master]

You liked seeing all those ******** in panic mode.......

[Pretorian]

Thats not a panic mode and mine werent **********