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Peak oil denialists on this message board?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Peak oil denialists on this message board?

Postby Dezakin » Tue 11 Jan 2011, 22:18:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'W')ell, I can demonstrate the technical capacity for us to produce over 1000/bbl worth of liquid fuels for the next ten million years at $200/bbl using technology we have today, using nuclear power, limestone, and water. The doomer objection is that it takes too long to build the infrastructure, and we'll all be cavemen by then; Not that it doesn't work.
Given enough time, money, and fusion power we could theoretically transmute dung to gold, or twigs into petroleum. Have you ever heard of thermodepolymerization (TDP). It was all the rage around here a few years ago and would turn poultry leavings into oil. I for one, am not waiting for my turkeys to convert to high-grade. They are better served wrung, bled, and degaussed.

Well, that and the market value for turkey guts is higher than the market value of oil products.

It takes a decade or two for large capital to move given everyone has historically been used to oil price of some $10-$20/bbl. Slowly companies are moving to higher cost production like CTL and tar sands. Moving to entirely synthetic fuel is reasonable if we actually price externalities for coal or we run out of it, and we wont ever run out of fissile fuel. We can even project costs, given the production cost of CTL is historically some $40/bbl, and full nuclear powered fuel syntheisis uses much of the same infrastructure. The extra capital cost is the reactor for producing hydrogen and CO2 from limestone and water.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'M')y objection is that it'll be rendered meaningless by new technologies and infrastructure by the time we would need it, but its a nice little demonstration.
what are you talking about? what "new technologies?" What "new infrastructure?
What demonstration?

New technologies include plug in hybrids, electric cars, nuclear powered shipping, and things I can't guess yet. New infrastructure is simply more public transit, denser cities, and more electric power plants, power distribution lines, and synthetic fuel plants. A lot of it is simple demand destruction on the path of least resistance: Middle class people wont be able to commute in SUV's and sportscars or afford as much discretionary air travel.

The whole doomer thesis rests on the notion that oil prices will rise so fast that industrial society wont be able to restructure and everyone will end up destroying rather than retooling infrastructure. I just don't find that plausible.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ornhole believes we humans are going to create a cyborg OverMind that will free us from our earthly chains. We won't need oil anymore because we will upload our minds to computer chips and join the Singularity/Borg.

I don't see how that's any more unbelievable than thinking we'll all go back to living like little house on the prairie in a hundred years.
You don't? 8O

No. If industrial society survives another century or two, I don't see what would be implausible about simulating brains in silicon, and then from there improving on them.
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Re: Peak oil denialists on this message board?

Postby Xenophobe » Tue 11 Jan 2011, 22:46:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'L')ocal survey says hard crash 54%, soft landing 46%.


Since when did "hard landing" mean DOOM? Seriously? Arguing semantics methinks here and your conclusions are biased.


I drew no conclusions. I know what "hard landing" means, and it strikes me as reasonably synonymous with Doom. It certainly doesn't mean what has actually happened, which some are trying to characterize as a "long emergency" type event, right?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AP', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'T')ake those results, roll in brimstone and fire from ex-latocians and yes...I think PO is all about Doomers.

Patently false but you refuse to accept it.


PO isn't defined just by the hard crashers on this website, it also includes the doomers.us who were quite proud of the title. And there were more posters there, then here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AP', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'T')he smart folks over at TOD don't know what oil is. Come back and tell us when they get smart enough to figure out the basics.
Wow, really losing credibility with this one. Ridiculous and completely BS statement and you know it. Nice try. Complete FAIL.


Really? Labeled slide #11. Its absolutely bogus. Ask why. When you learn the answer, you will understand my ability to claim, in a completely factual manner, that the smart guys at TOD don't even know what oil is.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4041

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AP', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'W')hen this website started, peak oil hadn't happened yet. Now its years in the past.
That's completely still up for debate.


Maybe by the cornucopians. Simmons, Ruppert and Deffeyes are agreed it was back in 2005, TOD called it for 2008. TOD is smart guys, and the other 3 are certified Priests in the Peak Oil Movement. Saying it is open for debate is like implying...well...that there are MULTIPLE peak oils.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AP', '
') Your refusal to understand the nature of US demand and why it has done what it has points to your lack of ability to connect the dots. As to the airline industry I am here to tell you that VAST affects due to high fuel costs have ravaged the industry and it is likely we go through another round of it soon should oil move above 100$/bbl. Your clueless here. FAIL again.

Then tell the airlines to stop making money to prove your point. VAST effects don't mean diddly if I can fly for a reasonable price, pilots keep their lucrative jobs, the planes are loaded and the airlines make money. 5 years after this supposedly long emergency kicked off.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AP', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'm')aybe we should all consider trading in our Lears for Cessna's? Times are tough, I guess such claims are more amusing just based on who is saying them.

Even the folks operating those Cessna's are being severely affected by higher fuel costs than we have ever seen. Go down to any local FBO and just ask. The answer should surprise you since you think everything is ok.

I think that those who own and operate their own private aircraft 5 years after peak oil happened are managing to disprove claims of ANY type of emergency, spindown, or slowdown. If your basis for a long emergency consists of paying more for my avgas, seriously dude, how bad can the emergency be? Rich folks having to cough up an extra $50/tank...for their personal airplanes? What a hardship! How terrible! The horror!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AP', '
') Touting some high end EV science project as the solution to PO is one of the dumbest things you have brought up here lately.

WRONG. What I am touting is a personal solution to peak oil. A solution which peak oil in 2005 was supposed to PREVENT I might add. Maybe the NEXT peak oil arrives and guess what happens? The owners of these mass produced, made in America, on sale NOW to the general public SOLUTIONS can continue in their motoring nirvana. Burnouts at the local stoplight. Transport to work. Transport around suburbia. See how many people, sitting alongside the road in their SUV's waiting in fuel lines think this is a dumb idea as you glide silently by, having CURED peak oil for yourself.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AP', '
') Very few people presently have the means of even owning one.


Lets start with average workers in America, say, those who own their own aircraft. Think they can afford one? Or did that extra $50/tank of avgas drain their last dollar from them? Or maybe, does the view look a little different for these average, working type americans, some of whom probably post at this very site?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AP', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'M')ost of us hang at TOD. I thought we were smart guys?

You may hang there but you are routinely destroyed in your Corny arguments, Ive seen it.

That is extremely unlikely. Might even be impossible, but I'd have to go check, and their interface just sucks.
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Re: Peak oil denialists on this message board?

Postby AirlinePilot » Tue 11 Jan 2011, 23:15:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'L')ets start with average workers in America, say, those who own their own aircraft. Think they can afford one? Or did that extra $50/tank of avgas drain their last dollar from them? Or maybe, does the view look a little different for these average, working type americans, some of whom probably post at this very site?


The "average" worker in the us does not own their own aircraft. Its financially unrealistic to believe so.

The plain hard fact remains that the average American worker cannot afford a Volt either. Its price puts it out of reach of the mainstream auto buyer. Claiming something to the contrary is purely rubbish and absolutely destroys any credibility to your argument about any "solution" to PO.

Next.

Once again the laughable multi-peak argument. Multiple peaks exist but they are not THE peak. Your argument is a fallacy yet you refuse to see that. The definition of insanity begins to come to mind.
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Re: Peak oil denialists on this message board?

Postby AirlinePilot » Tue 11 Jan 2011, 23:19:03

Oh I see now we are going to "cure" Peak Oil all by ourselves!!!!! With VOLTS???? :lol:

If that is the case why do you bother Xeno? What draws you here to debate all us crazy doomers? :shock:
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Re: Peak oil denialists on this message board?

Postby AirlinePilot » Tue 11 Jan 2011, 23:36:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'I') think that those who own and operate their own private aircraft 5 years after peak oil happened are managing to disprove claims of ANY type of emergency, spindown, or slowdown.


You think....and you would be wrong, completely and utterly wrong. The cost of fuel alone has significantly curtailed private aircraft usage and contributed to measurable economic losses due to it. Its not catastrophic and many of us cope, but I can assure you the present effect high fuel costs are having on the General Aviation industry are significant.
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Re: Peak oil denialists on this message board?

Postby Xenophobe » Wed 12 Jan 2011, 01:07:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'L')ets start with average workers in America, say, those who own their own aircraft. Think they can afford one? Or did that extra $50/tank of avgas drain their last dollar from them? Or maybe, does the view look a little different for these average, working type americans, some of whom probably post at this very site?


The "average" worker in the us does not own their own aircraft. Its financially unrealistic to believe so.


Okay, so, anyone I know with their own aircraft might sure have a tough time claiming how rough things are because of a little extra avgas then?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AP', '
')The plain hard fact remains that the average American worker cannot afford a Volt either. Its price puts it out of reach of the mainstream auto buyer. Claiming something to the contrary is purely rubbish and absolutely destroys any credibility to your argument about any "solution" to PO.


Baloney. When this long slow emergency leads to $10/gal gasoline, who will be sitting in the catbird seat then? Those who paid only slightly more than the average new car price for a Volt, or those stuck with their gas guzzlers because they didn't get out into a peak oil 4 wheeled solutions while they could?

Thinking ahead in this post peak world Airline, some of us do it and we win! Others don't and settle for used Volts or modded hybrids like mine.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AP', '
')Once again the laughable multi-peak argument. Multiple peaks exist but they are not THE peak.


Hey, you don't have to lecture me, it was the Prophets who called the 2005 peak, the smart guys who called the 2008 one, and can I be held to account if there is yet ANOTHER one off in the future? Blame geology, economics, or bad Prophets, I am just the messenger.
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Re: Peak oil denialists on this message board?

Postby Xenophobe » Wed 12 Jan 2011, 01:14:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'O')h I see now we are going to "cure" Peak Oil all by ourselves!!!!! With VOLTS???? :lol:


BY GEORGE...I THINK HE'S GOT IT!!
[smilie=hello2.gif]

Time to celebrate!

Seriously Airline, this doesn't work for you? Peak oil = gasoline rationing/shortage ( at least it was SUPPOSED to, the Prophets have done pretty poorly on their consequence guessing).

Rationing/shortage means people with ICE power drive...less. Whereas people with EV's can drive as much as they did before. Therefore, peak oil consequences don't stop John Doe EV from missing his Wednesday night car night at the local Wendys! Or going to work, the movies, doing burnouts to impress all the ICE drivers now riding bicycles, etc etc.
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Re: Peak oil denialists on this message board?

Postby Carlhole » Wed 12 Jan 2011, 02:53:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'S')eriously Airline, this doesn't work for you? Peak oil = gasoline rationing/shortage ( at least it was SUPPOSED to, the Prophets have done pretty poorly on their consequence guessing).


Actually, cheap oil sat on everything else, economically-speaking.

If oil is priced at $100 or $150 bbl instead of $20, economic forces immediately rush in with potential replacements or other kinds of adaptations. Ideally, oil ought to stay high-priced at around these levels for a sustained period of time to allow for the uninhibited development of energy technologies.

Certainly, energy prices will cause problems; it goes without saying. In order for the doomer vision to work, however, technology must remain static and unchanging; it must not actually advance. Conservation or other kinds of adaptation must not be possible. This is why doomers are so quick to pounce on any new energy technology. Their belief system requires that science and technology crumble like some figment of a dream. The James Howard Kunstlers of the world go to great lengths to encourage readers to think this way.

Bring up a topic like Joule Unlimited's Liquid-Fuel-From-The-Sun on a site like this, and you invariable elicit a great collective sneer. No matter that a pilot plant is nearing completion or that laboratory results have been extremely promising. Same goes for Small Modular Nuclear Reactors or any number of other incipient technologies.

Also, there is a whole lot of room for conservation. Only high oil prices remedy our excessive folds of energy fat that we could otherwise drop and be all the healthier for it.

The reality is, high prices spur rapid change and development. We have high prices now. This is a very good thing.
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Re: Peak oil denialists on this message board?

Postby AirlinePilot » Wed 12 Jan 2011, 04:01:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'T')he reality is, high prices spur rapid change and development. We have high prices now. This is a very good thing.


I disagree. High prices cause economic activity to slow. They result in margin collapse, especially with the unemployment problem we have here presently. They result in entire segments of the economy being unable to plan ahead due to volatility. Isn't it Interesting how 147 $/bbl oil resulted in the public and the government searching for a scapegoat?

We are just awash in alternatives right now, I cant choose which one I should turn to first. Face it, price continues to rise, the volatility will continue to cause economic problems and we wont do anything substantive until we have very high prices for a very long time. When we get forced into it, the economy wont be in the shape it needs to be to move swiftly or strongly in the direction it needs to.

Without a strong and resilient economy the ability to transition only works if you have the forethought and leadership to get in front of the problem. Waiting for a crisis of price potentially is more destructive and costly than real mitigation efforts. Lets see how the next price spike plays out, I dont think we have very long to wait either.
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Re: Peak oil denialists on this message board?

Postby AirlinePilot » Wed 12 Jan 2011, 04:07:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'H')ey, you don't have to lecture me, it was the Prophets who called the 2005 peak, the smart guys who called the 2008 one, and can I be held to account if there is yet ANOTHER one off in the future? Blame geology, economics, or bad Prophets, I am just the messenger.


Not a very good messenger really Xeno. The one-month spike that was July 2008 was just that. Total oil production (C+C) for 2008 just barely exceeds the oil production for 2005, but only because 2008 was a leap year. On a BPD basis, calendar year 2005 beats out 2008 but not by a huge margin. Using a centered moving average method, shows that a peak occurred in the December 2005 time frame.

Those "prophets" actually did a pretty darn good job at least when it comes to OIL.
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Re: Peak oil denialists on this message board?

Postby AirlinePilot » Wed 12 Jan 2011, 04:14:04

When we begin to use substantial amounts of Sunshine or Nuclear, or whatever you think is going to magically and quickly replace oil, come and get me ok? For now I am an ADVOCATE OF ALL OF THEM. I have even spent a fair amount of my own free time corresponding with my Congress folks and representatives about this very problem. Presently no one feels there is a true need, since folks like you think this is going to be completely taken care of when the time comes.

I'd say the time is now. Realistically I think we are out of time, but hey that's just my opinion.
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Re: Peak oil denialists on this message board?

Postby AirlinePilot » Wed 12 Jan 2011, 04:25:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'I')f oil is priced at $100 or $150 bbl instead of $20, economic forces immediately rush in with potential replacements or other kinds of adaptations. Ideally, oil ought to stay high-priced at around these levels for a sustained period of time to allow for the uninhibited development of energy technologies.


We actually agree on this point. Unfortunately all we did as I pointed out before was scream about how much it hurt the last time and try to blame someone for it. It's already disappeared from the masses collective memory and the new "normal" is 3$/gal gas.

I personally cannot afford a VOLT without going into some sort of debt( or dipping into savings) at this point. I presently have no debt. The cost inefficiencies of owning a volt versus a fuel efficient(and paid for) ICE will prevent me from buying one anytime soon.
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Re: Peak oil denialists on this message board?

Postby Xenophobe » Wed 12 Jan 2011, 19:27:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'H')ey, you don't have to lecture me, it was the Prophets who called the 2005 peak, the smart guys who called the 2008 one, and can I be held to account if there is yet ANOTHER one off in the future? Blame geology, economics, or bad Prophets, I am just the messenger.


Not a very good messenger really Xeno. The one-month spike that was July 2008 was just that. Total oil production (C+C) for 2008 just barely exceeds the oil production for 2005, but only because 2008 was a leap year. On a BPD basis, calendar year 2005 beats out 2008 but not by a huge margin. Using a centered moving average method, shows that a peak occurred in the December 2005 time frame.

Those "prophets" actually did a pretty darn good job at least when it comes to OIL.


deleted pointless ad hom

And what happens when we get the NEXT peak, and all those Prophets become just another in a long line of charlatans? Lets not forget, Stuart is one of those "smart guys" too.

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/12/p ... crude.html
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Re: Peak oil denialists on this message board?

Postby joewp » Thu 13 Jan 2011, 15:53:38

I think I know Xeno's problem here. He's obviously independently wealthy so he can well afford his "personal" solution to peak oil. He surely doesn't know what it's like to be working for a living and see your discretionary income disappear into your gas tank every week. Or even see it disappear into an overpriced "hybrid", plug in or otherwise.

And he obviously has no clue about the Jevons Paradox.
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