[Cyrus]

What is your take?

[johnmarkos]

Hey, you didn't provide a poll option for predicting that DJIA will be higher in five years than it is today!

Like what if $100 buys you a can of beans in 2010? The prices of the stocks in the DJIA will likely rise in that case as well.

[Kingcoal]

Dow 35,000!

[Tyler_JC]

I think he is using May, 2005 dollars...

[Cyrus]

I am going by May 2005 dollars yes. Inflation is NOT part of this.

[RonMN]

Maybe the "splat" of investment bankers hitting the pavement might be an option to this poll...

Kinda like the "splat" sound of the shi* hitting the fan

[arretium]

Where's the selection for those that think the DOW will register 10400 or higher?

[savethehumans]

Doesn't matter what the Dow numbers are--the society and its people will be screwed, anyway. . . .

[linlithgowoil]

i really wouldnt be surprised if its exactly the same - even if the economy of the entire globe is in tatters. the government will just prevent it happening somehow.

[Tyler_JC]

Even with current earnings, the real value of the 30 companies that makes up the Dow Jones Industrial Average is only around 5000-6000. If PO causes a recession in the near term, that will cause earnings to drop and thus the value of each of the Big 30 will decrease. Stocks are currently overpriced and have been for some time. The Dow went from 800 to nearly 12,000 from 1980 to 2000. Did the value of the US Economy increase by a factor of 15? I don't think so.

Historically, the stock market has increased by less than the 7% that economists are always pointing to. Even without PO, the Dow should fall by about 40% in order to be fairly valued in comparison to the actual strength of the American Economy.

So, yeah...Dow 5000 is perfectly reasonable.

[sjn]

Will the Dow Jones even exist by then?

[spot5050]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'W')ill the Dow Jones even exist by then?

[frankthetank]

I put 9000 but i'm being to optomistic. With Boomers starting to retire and PO having passed, it could get ugly.

[pea-jay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'W')ill the Dow Jones even exist by then?

[Egon_1]

Is this guy on drugs, or what? (Yes it is a press release, but still...) http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051205/20051205005856.html?.v=1 Press Release Source: H.S. Dent Publishing

H.S. Dent Forecast: 2006 -- Dow Could Approach 15,000, Mon Dec 5, 1:37 pm ET
as Real Estate Sector Slows, Major Advance Looms for Stocks

TAMPA, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 5, 2005--If one of your New Year's resolutions is to make smarter investment decisions in 2006, resolve to put your money in the stock market, say Harry S. Dent, founder and president of the H.S. Dent Foundation. One of the world's foremost economic forecasters, Dent says in 2006, "the smart money will turn more bullish -- leading to a strong rally as new money comes back into stocks and out of housing, bonds and REITS."

Dent is known for developing the Dent Forecasting Method, an economic forecasting approach that incorporates demographic trend data into traditional forecasting models.

In the December edition of his monthly newsletter, the H.S. Dent Forecast, he says because the bond, REIT, energy and homebuilding sectors are beginning to slow, investors will become increasingly bullish toward the stock market in upcoming months.

So much, in fact, that if economic reports are strong, "it is likely the markets could resume their rally" as early as this December.

The rally will be led by institutions, he explained. "New institutional investors will come back into the markets well ahead of the more bearish everyday investor."

And with his projected targets between 14,000 and 15,000 for the Dow as well as 3,500 for the Nasdaq, "we could even be underestimating the market's potential for 2006," Dent contends.

Other highlights of Dent's forecasts for 2006 include:

-The Fed will stop raising rates by January of 2006 to avoid an inverted yield curve;

-Oil prices will continue to trend down throughout 2006;

-The housing bubble, which is already showing signs of slowing, will manifest as flattening and then lower housing prices;

-The Dow's ascent to Dent's targeted range between 14,000 and 15,000 will take place by August 2006;

-The market can continue to rally because stocks are currently undervalued by 40 percent compared to bonds.

"All indications show that stocks are heading up from here. So, investors that waited for proof of the recovery from the lows in October 2002 have already missed a doubling of the Nasdaq and a 50 percent gain in the Dow," Dent says. "I'm giving a strong buy signal NOW for the 2006 bull market. If investors procrastinate, they again will miss major gains in the coming year."

[SHiFTY]

The stock market is actually a pretty good inflation hedge. Barring a crash (which is probably reasonably unlikely short term) and the probability of high inflation then I would actually agree with this analysis.

Anything but property. A good example of the property downturn is Sydney Australia. Prices have dropped by 10% from last year, leaving a lot of people upside down. Also the market has become illiquid.

So yeah, if inflation really kicks off, then stocks might be a reasonable investment. It's always a risk though...

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '-')The Fed will stop raising rates by January of 2006 to avoid an inverted yield curve;

[EnergySpin]

As a health professional I have to comment on the "enhanced" hallucinogenic drug delivery vehicle (EHDDV) that the gentleman in the picture submitted by the previous poster is smoking.
You can see the devasting health effects ... after smoking EHDDV master was forced to quit his Jedi training job and seek a new job; in fact he looks a lot like a Gremlin now

[Leanan]

The DJ hit 11,000 today, for the first time since 2000.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/09/markets ... /index.htm

Meanwhile, gold has hit its highest level since 1981:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/09/markets ... /index.htm